we've had decades to scour older players, but only a few years for more recent players this is not a fair comparison

The Yadi defenders would argue that this ignores pitch framing

Personally I don't think Yadier should be a 1st Ballot HOFer and he's overrated, but the Cardinals fans would get mad at me

I don't think removing Maduro makes us evil

I went in thinking "No" on both. I left... conflicted. If I had to pick 1 to vote for? It’s David Wright.

Read the full breakdown, the historical comps, and my "All-Tragedy Team" here:

open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...

Thurman Munson (died at 32). Johan Santana (done at 32). There is no consistent standard for tragedy in Cooperstown. Roy Campanella is in. Munson is out.

It creates a conundrum for the current ballot: Is spinal stenosis "tragic" enough to excuse the counting stats?

I looked at HOF 2B/3B with <1,800 games. The list is short: Joe Gordon, Jimmy Collins, Jackie Robinson.

Does Pedroia or Wright match their impact? It’s a tough sell. But looking at the "Tragedy Team" outside the Hall (Munson, Santana, Belle) makes the decision even harder.

I ran a blind stat test. Player A: 1,878 H, 378 HR Player B: 1,805 H, 140 HR (Pedroia) Player C: 2,029 H, 211 HR Player D: 1,777 H, 242 HR (Wright)

Spoiler: The non-HOFers in that mix (Matt Williams, Brandon Phillips) look mighty similar to the stars on the ballot.

Pedroia & Wright are on the ballot. Both titans of the 2000s. Both derailed by injury (knee & spinal stenosis).

I compared their numbers against 2 distinct groups: short-career HOFers (like Joe Gordon) & the "All-Tragedy Team" outside the Hall. The results shocked me.

As a Cleveland fan, I know "what if" well. Herb Score was on a HOF track before 1 line drive changed everything in 1957. Ray Chapman died on the field in 1920.

These shadows hang over the game. But how do voters handle careers cut short by injury in the modern era?

7) I am not against adjusting expectations: but we should adjust our expectations for the generation after Felix. It's Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber and their ilk who deserve the re-evaluation: not Felix Hernandez

6) I am glad he at least is voting for Hamels, whom I think was better pitcher than Felix (and was a postseason hero)

But to me: Felix is probably the 8-9th best pitcher from his cohort (debut between 2000-2009). The fact Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke and Scherzer stuck around is the damning fact

5) It is unfortunate that Felix's career ended early: but the reason why Felix didn't put up HOF numbers is he either chose not, or could not, adapt to his changing body when he turned 30 and ceased being a good pitcher too young. That isn't a tragedy that's a normal baseball story

4) I would add: it's fair to wonder if Scherzer's most recent 10 year stretch ('16-25) would be ahead of Felix if not for the 2020 pandemic

There are 7, non-league leading, stretches better than Felix (that I have found) from players who are not in the HOF including contemporary Roy Oswalt

3) Mike made a lot of hay with his 'best over a 10 year period' by WAR argument, and while it's true: Felix did lead baseball in bWAR over a decade. It's also true that it's among the worst stretches to lead baseball: ever, and the proceeding next 10 guys to lead for a decade had better periods

2) I already broke this down in an article, but the very long and short of it is that Mike isn't reimagining value: he's just lowering the bar for Felix. Felix is not the first victim of a reduction in workloads for starters: he is the last of the 200+ inning generation...and he's just not that good

open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...