Auf dem Weg zum @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social Konsortiumstreffen beim @pik-potsdam.bsky.social in Potsdam - standesgemäß #fossilfrei und #klimaneutral unterwegs an einem prächtigen Frühlingsmorgen

9/14
EU ETS DYNAMICS: The #MSR will absorb EUAs until 2028 and release them after 2030. Models arrive at different price trajectories: they all achieve the Fit-for-55 goals but differ e.g. regarding the anticipation of market actors. All models expect a rising EUA price, from 120 - 200 Euro in 2030.

5/14
Views on 2030 industry emissions vary widely – depending i.a. on the volume and impact of #decarbonisation support to industry. Some modelers project 2030 industry emissions between 300 and 400 Mt, while others anticipate emissions of 450 to 600 Mt.

4/14
PROGRESS IN INDUSTRY TRANSFORMATION: #Industry now accounts for half of #EU-ETS emissions. Increasingly, industrial abatement will set the ETS price at the margin. When and how this shift from power to industry as price-setter occurs is a major sensitivity for modelling the carbon price.

1/14
On 9 December 2024, the #Ariadneproject convened experts from five organisations that operate carbon market models – academic institutions and carbon market analysts, to compare their projections for the evolution of #EU-ETS prices through 2030 and beyond, the deviations and their causes.

What happens when you bring together academic #carbonmarket modellers with market analysts, to compare notes, exchange about their models’ features and limitations, and discuss their expectations for the future of EU carbon markets? At a #AriadneProject event in Dec, we did just that. Takeaway🧵:

But where should demand come from? #PublicProcurement is promising esp. for cement and steel: accounts for a sizeable chunk of demand, and should be used strategically to support investments into low- or zero-carbon production methods. The big drawback: tight budgets and competing spending needs.

Since most industrial policy instruments target supply of clea(er) products, #GreenLeadMarkets can fill a gap by creating demand. Yet they are transitional - in the medium-long run, demand should be driven by the #CarbonPrice from the EU ETS.

#GreenLeadMarkets are most suited for products with significant embedded emissions, for which market-ready low-carbon options exist, and for which there is willingness to pay - or demand can be created. Big question: target basic materials (steel, cement...) or final products (cars, buildings ...)

With Philipp Tschinke (Salzgitter), Karl Thies (CEMEX), Suzana Carp (Cleantech for Europe), Marzena Rogalska (DG CLIMA) and Cristina Abellan Bustos (for Bruno Tobback MEP) discussed how #GreenLeadMarkets should work, which products they should focus on, and what they can be expected to deliver.

Today at the Ariadne@Brussels event had insightful discussions on one of the hot topics: #GreenLeadMarkets in the upcoming EU #CleanIndustrialDeal. What role for them in the policy mix, and how can they support the transition of energy-intensive industries and/or foster #CleanTech business models.

@cheussaff.bsky.social “always happy when he sees an S-curve”. Much cause for happiness therefore at the Ariadne@Brussels discussions on scaling tech & sector transformations in #transport & #buildings, but also real barriers & active resistance to be overcome climbing the curve @ctrasi.bsky.social

3/6
But there's a problem: the EU's #IndustrialPolicy is a patchwork of instruments that lack coordination, clarity, ambition, and resources.

This undermines its effectiveness in fixing market failures and scaling #CleanTechnologies.

EU climate & energy professionals - join us in Brussels on 9 - 11 Dec to discuss how the EU can stay on course to net zero, in times that have become yet more turbulent. The three-day miniseries will discuss insights from the Ariadne project. Find out more & register: forms.ecologic.eu/ariadne2024

Heidelberg, 18,000
(in a city of 160,000)

‘Tis the season! #treebybike becoming a bit of a tradition