We CAN do better, starting with significant reforms at the international financial institutions that oversee sovereign debt restructuring. Investing in communities and the ecosystems that support them is ambitious, but possible ... and the only way to ensure a livable planet, together.

I wrote Chapter 4, on the business-as-usual vicious cycle between sovereign debt, government austerity, commodity dependence, deforestation, rising climate change vulnerability, and more expensive sovereign debt.

One of the most rewarding things I've gotten to do in my career is collaborate with environmental activists and scholars form all over the world on the 2025 edition of the Land Gap report.

landgap.org/2025/report

A few highlights ⤵️

I've been entrenched in thinking about the impacts on EMDEs (FX, bond ratings, debt sustainability) so this is out of my wheelhouse a bit ... but here's the yield curve for between announcement and "pause" ... it got increasingly more inverted ("yippy") as the week went on.

¡Acompáñanos mañana! Descubre más e inscríbete aquí: sisisemail.up.edu.pe/sisisemail/_...

The other way DFIs & ECAs support sustainable & inclusive TM supply chains is through long-term strategy support: JETPs and World Bank Country Climate & Development Reports. But specific ESRM strategy is absent from JETPs and only appears in 9 CCDRs:

6/12

DFIs & ECAs also need empowered partners – national environmental and social ministries– to oversee investors. Thus, MDBs policy support. This is crucial for LICs (blue in this image), but it hasn’t reached the MICs that export TMs yet (red in this image). There are no purple countries here.

5/12

Chinese DFIs – CDB & CHEXIM, which support Chinese investors overseas as well as other sovereign governments with minerals SOEs – haven’t yet built out strong environmental & social risk management (ESRM) practices. Recent reforms are promising, but haven’t resulted in KPIs for banks yet.

3/12

This is a story about development finance, but especially a story about China. Chinese imports from LAC, Africa and developing Asia are just 4% of all trade, but 40% of trade in raw transition minerals (TM) and 52% of raw TMs that haven’t yet met their growth projections for climate needs.

2/12

I’m delighted to share my latest w/ @gdp-center.bsky.social colleagues @julieradomski.bsky.social, Bowen Gu & Cynthia Sanborn:

Unmined Potential? Opportunities for development finance to support sustainability and inclusion in transition mineral supply chains.

www.bu.edu/gdp/2025/03/...

🧵, 1/12:

This year we’re going to try to make rosettes, which are the answer to the question “What if you made funnel cake with a branding iron?”

It says it’s Swedish but looks like it belongs at the Texas State Fair. Susu & I are excited to see what comes next.

Has anybody tried this at home? Any advice?

Happy December! For folks with big holiday plans, Susu says it’s important to stay focused on your goals.

Personally I think it’s just as important to keep your plans achievable, but Susu’s never been held back by such concerns.

As requested, here is my #proofOfCat: welcome to BlueSky, Susu-watari!