Baldi Economics
@baldiecon.bsky.social
I am a policy analyst, data scientist, and economic forecaster.
Industrial production and value added
Time and again in Germany, charts are shown depicting the decline in industrial production. These are then accompanied by remarks like "Germany in free fall."
However, the situation of the industry is not as dire.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
Time and again in Germany, charts are shown depicting the decline in industrial production. These are then accompanied by remarks like "Germany in free fall."
However, the situation of the industry is not as dire.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
September 4, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Industrial production and value added
Time and again in Germany, charts are shown depicting the decline in industrial production. These are then accompanied by remarks like "Germany in free fall."
However, the situation of the industry is not as dire.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
Time and again in Germany, charts are shown depicting the decline in industrial production. These are then accompanied by remarks like "Germany in free fall."
However, the situation of the industry is not as dire.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
US Economy: Turbulent Policy-Making Intensifies Concerns about Economic Development
Whether the US economy will slide into a recession is still open. The risks have undoubtedly increased, and at least a significant economic cooling seems certain at the moment.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
Whether the US economy will slide into a recession is still open. The risks have undoubtedly increased, and at least a significant economic cooling seems certain at the moment.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
April 14, 2025 at 8:12 AM
US Economy: Turbulent Policy-Making Intensifies Concerns about Economic Development
Whether the US economy will slide into a recession is still open. The risks have undoubtedly increased, and at least a significant economic cooling seems certain at the moment.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
Whether the US economy will slide into a recession is still open. The risks have undoubtedly increased, and at least a significant economic cooling seems certain at the moment.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
US stocks shed $5.4tn in two days as Trump’s tariffs stoke recession fears
www.ft.com/content/b1ed...
www.ft.com/content/b1ed...
US stocks shed $5.4tn in two days as Trump’s tariffs stoke recession fears
China’s retaliation against Washington’s levies adds to sense of gloom across global markets
www.ft.com
April 4, 2025 at 9:30 PM
US stocks shed $5.4tn in two days as Trump’s tariffs stoke recession fears
www.ft.com/content/b1ed...
www.ft.com/content/b1ed...
Productivity Bite: European Economies Should Do Better, but Europe is not in Decline
baldieconomics.substack.com/p/productivi...
baldieconomics.substack.com/p/productivi...
March 21, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Productivity Bite: European Economies Should Do Better, but Europe is not in Decline
baldieconomics.substack.com/p/productivi...
baldieconomics.substack.com/p/productivi...
The inauguration of Donald Trump will be next Monday. Significant uncertainties surround the economic outlook.
The fourth quarter of 2024 looks quite strong for the US economy. My nowcast for 2024 Q4 stands at 2.8%. For comparison, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is 3.0%.
The fourth quarter of 2024 looks quite strong for the US economy. My nowcast for 2024 Q4 stands at 2.8%. For comparison, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is 3.0%.
January 17, 2025 at 4:13 PM
The inauguration of Donald Trump will be next Monday. Significant uncertainties surround the economic outlook.
The fourth quarter of 2024 looks quite strong for the US economy. My nowcast for 2024 Q4 stands at 2.8%. For comparison, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is 3.0%.
The fourth quarter of 2024 looks quite strong for the US economy. My nowcast for 2024 Q4 stands at 2.8%. For comparison, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is 3.0%.
The U.S. labor market looks solid!
In December, 256,000 new jobs were created - more than in previous months. Unemployment stood at 4.1 percent (down from 4.2 percent in November).
Currently, my nowcast for GDP growth in Q4 2024 is at 2,4% (annualized).
www.bls.gov/news.release...
In December, 256,000 new jobs were created - more than in previous months. Unemployment stood at 4.1 percent (down from 4.2 percent in November).
Currently, my nowcast for GDP growth in Q4 2024 is at 2,4% (annualized).
www.bls.gov/news.release...
January 10, 2025 at 4:02 PM
The U.S. labor market looks solid!
In December, 256,000 new jobs were created - more than in previous months. Unemployment stood at 4.1 percent (down from 4.2 percent in November).
Currently, my nowcast for GDP growth in Q4 2024 is at 2,4% (annualized).
www.bls.gov/news.release...
In December, 256,000 new jobs were created - more than in previous months. Unemployment stood at 4.1 percent (down from 4.2 percent in November).
Currently, my nowcast for GDP growth in Q4 2024 is at 2,4% (annualized).
www.bls.gov/news.release...
Friedrich Merz pushes for EU free trade deal with Donald Trump’s US
"German conservative leader predicted to be next chancellor rejects retaliatory tariffs"
www.ft.com/content/ae2f...
"German conservative leader predicted to be next chancellor rejects retaliatory tariffs"
www.ft.com/content/ae2f...
Friedrich Merz pushes for EU free trade deal with Donald Trump’s US
German conservative leader predicted to be next chancellor rejects retaliatory tariffs
www.ft.com
January 2, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Friedrich Merz pushes for EU free trade deal with Donald Trump’s US
"German conservative leader predicted to be next chancellor rejects retaliatory tariffs"
www.ft.com/content/ae2f...
"German conservative leader predicted to be next chancellor rejects retaliatory tariffs"
www.ft.com/content/ae2f...
My favorite Productivity Bite of 2024: Productivity of Switzerland and Germany in International Comparison
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
December 29, 2024 at 10:01 PM
My favorite Productivity Bite of 2024: Productivity of Switzerland and Germany in International Comparison
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
Good analysis by Gideon Rachman
“America First will transform the world in 2025: In different ways, the US, Russia and China have all become revisionist powers that are seeking radical change to the status quo”
www.ft.com/content/d11f...
“America First will transform the world in 2025: In different ways, the US, Russia and China have all become revisionist powers that are seeking radical change to the status quo”
www.ft.com/content/d11f...
How America First will transform the world in 2025
In different ways, the US, Russia and China have all become revisionist powers that are seeking radical change to the status quo
www.ft.com
December 28, 2024 at 9:53 PM
Good analysis by Gideon Rachman
“America First will transform the world in 2025: In different ways, the US, Russia and China have all become revisionist powers that are seeking radical change to the status quo”
www.ft.com/content/d11f...
“America First will transform the world in 2025: In different ways, the US, Russia and China have all become revisionist powers that are seeking radical change to the status quo”
www.ft.com/content/d11f...
US Economy: Strong Now, Uncertain Future Ahead
As the new president's inauguration approaches, the US economy remains in good condition, though future development is marked by significant uncertainty.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
As the new president's inauguration approaches, the US economy remains in good condition, though future development is marked by significant uncertainty.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
December 27, 2024 at 3:41 PM
US Economy: Strong Now, Uncertain Future Ahead
As the new president's inauguration approaches, the US economy remains in good condition, though future development is marked by significant uncertainty.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
As the new president's inauguration approaches, the US economy remains in good condition, though future development is marked by significant uncertainty.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
German Economy Remains in a Slump
In the past week, many economic research institutes in Germany as well as the Bundesbank presented their new economic forecasts. They are characterized by pessimism.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
In the past week, many economic research institutes in Germany as well as the Bundesbank presented their new economic forecasts. They are characterized by pessimism.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
December 14, 2024 at 4:44 PM
German Economy Remains in a Slump
In the past week, many economic research institutes in Germany as well as the Bundesbank presented their new economic forecasts. They are characterized by pessimism.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
In the past week, many economic research institutes in Germany as well as the Bundesbank presented their new economic forecasts. They are characterized by pessimism.
open.substack.com/pub/baldieco...
December 6, 2024 at 9:10 PM