Genuinely a great post. Thanks for the links and replies! Enjoy the rest of your weekend

I wonder what this means for off-grid farms in Ethiopia that were running diesel but considering switching to solar. Maybe it makes more sense to wait for a grid hookup instead of doubling down on independent power production? Curious what you think

testing to see if the #EnergySky feed still works with the 🔌💡

Winterizing gas plants would result in higher ELCCs. So UCAP would increase as you say. But it would also result in higher fixed costs to cover. So Net CONE would increase for CTs & CCs and prices would shift up. Maybe this nets out to being neutral overall? Though bid behavior complicates it too

1/ Curious if there's sensitivity analysis or papers you like re: ELCC gains vs winterization costs? 2/ below

Jeff, love the story. But aren't the Talen coal and oil plants in BGE open until at least 2029? Not 2028 as printed.

Talen Press Release (Jan 2025):
ir.talenenergy.com/news-release...

The PJM MMU (Feb 18, 2025):
www.monitoringanalytics.com/filings/2025...

Adding another new EO on regulatory sunset provisions: www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Plus of course how it all started in January: www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Note to self to revisit cases like Epel (2015) Pike v Bruce Church (1970), Baldwin, North Dakota v. Heydinger (2016), and National Pork Producers Council v. Ross (2023)

Generally look up dormant commerce clause (DCC)

Also cost allocation stuff like Illinois Commerce Comm’n v. FERC (2014)

Really love the model fit vs calculation graphs. Plus, here I was having issues inserting lognormal distribution notation into a word doc in the background, so gives me hope seeing how beautifully you displayed it on substack. Great post!

*Also meant to mention: different parts of the country do wholesale electricity very differently. Some use big auctions with a few bilateral trades. Others mostly use bilateral trades. Then there's other random pooling. Kind of a mess, but fascinating. Then energy law enters the picture and goodluck

The list goes on. Interesting sector but a lot of complexity that makes it hard to characterize things neatly.

Most market opportunities and grid needs are a series of questions with the answer "it depends". Long duration storage is promising. Everyone wants it. But a lot of things need to line up

Sure thing! And mostly yes. Gets complicated by transmission congestion (reflected in nodal pricing and differences between the wholesale price paid at different locations) + ancillaries (voltage/frequency/other support the grid needs) + capacity payments/resource adequacy + bid behavior + ...

Hi Kevin - ISO-NE and NYISO are right next to each other in the Northeast. Very similar cost of living. In terms of what you're seeing for the 'price' next to hydro and nuclear -- it's probably neither as crazy as that may sound. Here's a good explanation I hope: www.iso-ne.com/about/what-w...

Sorry for late reply - great point on the MD air quality regs!

Anything by Bushnell is a classic. Borenstein and Bushnell (2025) paper when?