Babak
@babakrowshan.bsky.social
The lowest quality Russell 2000 stocks (measured by the index of money losing companies in the index) are taking the lead, rocketing 30% in just 6 weeks:
October 11, 2025 at 2:05 AM
The lowest quality Russell 2000 stocks (measured by the index of money losing companies in the index) are taking the lead, rocketing 30% in just 6 weeks:
Leuthold Group's Bellwether Advance Decline line has stalled while the market continues to make new highs:
October 11, 2025 at 2:04 AM
Leuthold Group's Bellwether Advance Decline line has stalled while the market continues to make new highs:
The lowest quality Russell 2000 stocks (measured by the index of money losing companies in the index) are taking the lead, rocketing 30% in just 6 weeks:
October 11, 2025 at 2:02 AM
The lowest quality Russell 2000 stocks (measured by the index of money losing companies in the index) are taking the lead, rocketing 30% in just 6 weeks:
Anyone else notice that $VXN correlation to $NDX is at a historic extreme? quite rare, last time the correlation was this high was Nov 2021:
October 4, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Anyone else notice that $VXN correlation to $NDX is at a historic extreme? quite rare, last time the correlation was this high was Nov 2021:
Unfortunately, US political partisanship and tribalism has reduced the signal to noise in soft economic data:
news.gallup.com/poll/692045/...
news.gallup.com/poll/692045/...
September 2, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Unfortunately, US political partisanship and tribalism has reduced the signal to noise in soft economic data:
news.gallup.com/poll/692045/...
news.gallup.com/poll/692045/...
US corporate insiders have flipped from bullish in April to the most bearish in a decade, according to data from University of Michigan finance prof Nejat Seyhoun (only 11.1% of corp with insiders buying more shares than they're selling):
July 19, 2025 at 8:43 PM
US corporate insiders have flipped from bullish in April to the most bearish in a decade, according to data from University of Michigan finance prof Nejat Seyhoun (only 11.1% of corp with insiders buying more shares than they're selling):
Market timing newsletters are back to extreme optimism (Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index - HSNSI).
Surprisingly, the only asset class whose sentiment isn't excessively bullish is gold!
Surprisingly, the only asset class whose sentiment isn't excessively bullish is gold!
July 8, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Market timing newsletters are back to extreme optimism (Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index - HSNSI).
Surprisingly, the only asset class whose sentiment isn't excessively bullish is gold!
Surprisingly, the only asset class whose sentiment isn't excessively bullish is gold!
Similar thoughts from Mark Hulbert: inverse relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for the US and S&P 500 performance
May 31, 2025 at 2:13 AM
Similar thoughts from Mark Hulbert: inverse relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for the US and S&P 500 performance
Leuthold Group:
"risk of a self-fulfilling confidence collapse remains elevated. In April, the Conference Board’s Consumer Expectations Index dropped to a level that’s been observed only once outside of a recession (mid-2011)."
"risk of a self-fulfilling confidence collapse remains elevated. In April, the Conference Board’s Consumer Expectations Index dropped to a level that’s been observed only once outside of a recession (mid-2011)."
May 30, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Leuthold Group:
"risk of a self-fulfilling confidence collapse remains elevated. In April, the Conference Board’s Consumer Expectations Index dropped to a level that’s been observed only once outside of a recession (mid-2011)."
"risk of a self-fulfilling confidence collapse remains elevated. In April, the Conference Board’s Consumer Expectations Index dropped to a level that’s been observed only once outside of a recession (mid-2011)."
Quilter: "the US is expected to have the worst returns, as voted for by 53% of respondents. Meanwhile, the EU led the way in expectations, with 44% saying it will have the best returns."
media.quilter.com/search/2025/...
media.quilter.com/search/2025/...
May 23, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Quilter: "the US is expected to have the worst returns, as voted for by 53% of respondents. Meanwhile, the EU led the way in expectations, with 44% saying it will have the best returns."
media.quilter.com/search/2025/...
media.quilter.com/search/2025/...
In contrast, GFMS respondents are not concomitantly pessimistic on the US dollar: May survey respondents report being underweight US dollar (net 17%) the most since May 2006.
May 23, 2025 at 10:14 PM
In contrast, GFMS respondents are not concomitantly pessimistic on the US dollar: May survey respondents report being underweight US dollar (net 17%) the most since May 2006.
Latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey (May 2025): gold's overvaluation at historic level (net % of respondents saying gold is overvalued)
May 23, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey (May 2025): gold's overvaluation at historic level (net % of respondents saying gold is overvalued)
The options market (CBOE put/call ratios) did not indicate a level of fear that would be expected to be commensurate with the price decline (or other metrics that reflected fear) during the Trump tariff retracement. Now they are indicating complacency & optimism:
chart via Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG
chart via Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG
May 20, 2025 at 9:57 PM
The options market (CBOE put/call ratios) did not indicate a level of fear that would be expected to be commensurate with the price decline (or other metrics that reflected fear) during the Trump tariff retracement. Now they are indicating complacency & optimism:
chart via Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG
chart via Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG
The US exceptionalism trade has retraced briefly but remains at extreme historical levels, far above its 21st century avg of 51% and almost double the lows in early 1990s (MSCI US as % of MSCI ACWI mkt cap):
May 11, 2025 at 9:36 PM
The US exceptionalism trade has retraced briefly but remains at extreme historical levels, far above its 21st century avg of 51% and almost double the lows in early 1990s (MSCI US as % of MSCI ACWI mkt cap):
Newsletter market timers not skeptical of equity recovery: S&P 500 finished recovering its retracement losses from April 2nd on May 2nd but over same period Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment +64% pts (HSNSI +25% pts)
May 11, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Newsletter market timers not skeptical of equity recovery: S&P 500 finished recovering its retracement losses from April 2nd on May 2nd but over same period Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment +64% pts (HSNSI +25% pts)
Hope I'm wrong but shipping data feels like we're at the point in the Roadrunner cartoons where Wile E Coyote runs off a cliff hovering for a few seconds in mid-air before succumbing to gravity (pulling out a pithy sign from his back: "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the English language").
April 30, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Hope I'm wrong but shipping data feels like we're at the point in the Roadrunner cartoons where Wile E Coyote runs off a cliff hovering for a few seconds in mid-air before succumbing to gravity (pulling out a pithy sign from his back: "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the English language").
VandaTrack data showing US retail traders, rushing in where others fear to tread:
April 29, 2025 at 10:13 PM
VandaTrack data showing US retail traders, rushing in where others fear to tread:
DB tracking proxy for outflows from US markets by tracking flows for US bond and equity ETFs domiciled outside US
April 29, 2025 at 10:13 PM
DB tracking proxy for outflows from US markets by tracking flows for US bond and equity ETFs domiciled outside US
The foundational building block of any society/economy is power generation capacity and its cost structure.
Low cost and available energy flows into the economy making everything cheaper, efficient, abundant and accessible.
Low cost and available energy flows into the economy making everything cheaper, efficient, abundant and accessible.
April 28, 2025 at 9:25 PM
The foundational building block of any society/economy is power generation capacity and its cost structure.
Low cost and available energy flows into the economy making everything cheaper, efficient, abundant and accessible.
Low cost and available energy flows into the economy making everything cheaper, efficient, abundant and accessible.
Torsten Slok on the timeline for a Trump tariffs lead US recession this summer, starting with containerships to US ports coming to a full stop in May.
April 28, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Torsten Slok on the timeline for a Trump tariffs lead US recession this summer, starting with containerships to US ports coming to a full stop in May.
So far 2025 feels like the upside-down with stock markets from countries like Greece, Spain, Poland, Chile, Mexico, Italy, Colombia, South Africa, Finland, Sweden, Austria, handily outperforming their US counterparts.
April 27, 2025 at 9:04 PM
So far 2025 feels like the upside-down with stock markets from countries like Greece, Spain, Poland, Chile, Mexico, Italy, Colombia, South Africa, Finland, Sweden, Austria, handily outperforming their US counterparts.
Not only did wages keep up with inflation, they exceeded them. And the kicker is that since COVID, US wage growth was highest for the lowest income segment of the population:
www.americanprogress.org/article/amer...
www.americanprogress.org/article/amer...
April 26, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Not only did wages keep up with inflation, they exceeded them. And the kicker is that since COVID, US wage growth was highest for the lowest income segment of the population:
www.americanprogress.org/article/amer...
www.americanprogress.org/article/amer...
University of Michigan sentiment: 12% of respondents said they assign a 0% chance of a stock market increase in 2025.
This is the highest on record, above prior peaks in 2003, 2009 and 2023. #contrarian
via Mark Newton (Fundstrat)
This is the highest on record, above prior peaks in 2003, 2009 and 2023. #contrarian
via Mark Newton (Fundstrat)
April 26, 2025 at 2:16 AM
University of Michigan sentiment: 12% of respondents said they assign a 0% chance of a stock market increase in 2025.
This is the highest on record, above prior peaks in 2003, 2009 and 2023. #contrarian
via Mark Newton (Fundstrat)
This is the highest on record, above prior peaks in 2003, 2009 and 2023. #contrarian
via Mark Newton (Fundstrat)
Today's update reveals another drop in container ships departing China for the U.S. over the rolling 15-day window—used shipping capacity is also falling.
via michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
via michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
April 26, 2025 at 2:10 AM
Today's update reveals another drop in container ships departing China for the U.S. over the rolling 15-day window—used shipping capacity is also falling.
via michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
via michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
Is the correction over?
April 25, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Is the correction over?