B8YL28Y7MZ
@b8yl28y7mz.bsky.social
Building an algorithm based on Z→Z²+C to forecast markets. Will also post about design, generative art, AI, movies, music and surfing—because I’m human.
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B8YL28Y7MZ
@b8yl28y7mz.bsky.social
· Jun 2
TRADE, TREND and TAIL forecast levels are finally ready for testing in the wild (used along with the risk range forecast levels). Testing for 3 months using VIX, /NQ + BTC 👇
Tests are done. TRADE, TREND, TAIL forecasting levels need a bit of tweaking but otherwise works. Now let’s do some actual forecasting — that’s the real test (combo with the RR forecast levels). This will be like a weather app, but for markets 📝🔍
VIX week of 6/23:
46% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
70% chance of ranging between 18.97 and 25.99 in the short-term.
46% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
70% chance of ranging between 18.97 and 25.99 in the short-term.
June 23, 2025 at 2:52 PM
VIX week of 6/23:
46% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
70% chance of ranging between 18.97 and 25.99 in the short-term.
46% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
70% chance of ranging between 18.97 and 25.99 in the short-term.
/NQ week of 6/23:
62% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
59% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
62% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
59% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
June 23, 2025 at 2:48 PM
/NQ week of 6/23:
62% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
59% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
62% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
59% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
BTC week of 6/23:
72% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
80% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
72% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
80% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
June 23, 2025 at 2:44 PM
BTC week of 6/23:
72% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
80% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
72% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
80% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
VIX week of 6/19:
40% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
64% chance of ranging between 18.80 and 25.99 in the short-term.
40% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
64% chance of ranging between 18.80 and 25.99 in the short-term.
June 16, 2025 at 11:58 AM
VIX week of 6/19:
40% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
64% chance of ranging between 18.80 and 25.99 in the short-term.
40% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
64% chance of ranging between 18.80 and 25.99 in the short-term.
/NQ week of 6/16:
63% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
59% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
63% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
59% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
June 16, 2025 at 11:54 AM
/NQ week of 6/16:
63% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
59% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
63% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
59% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
BTC week of 6/16:
60% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
40% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
60% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
40% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
June 16, 2025 at 11:50 AM
BTC week of 6/16:
60% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
40% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
60% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
40% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
VIX week of 6/09:
38% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
28% chance of increasing in the short-term.
38% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
28% chance of increasing in the short-term.
June 9, 2025 at 5:15 PM
VIX week of 6/09:
38% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
28% chance of increasing in the short-term.
38% chance of increasing in the medium-term.
28% chance of increasing in the short-term.
/NQ week of 6/09:
61% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
55% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
61% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
55% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
June 9, 2025 at 5:12 PM
/NQ week of 6/09:
61% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
55% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
61% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
55% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
BTC week of 6/09:
57% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
35% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
57% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
35% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
June 9, 2025 at 5:09 PM
BTC week of 6/09:
57% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
35% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
57% chance of a pullback in the medium-term.
35% chance of a pullback in the short-term.
“… credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance.” — someone way smarter than I am
June 7, 2025 at 5:12 PM
“… credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance.” — someone way smarter than I am
VIX week of 6/02:
91% chance of increasing in the medium-term (M).
76% chance of ranging between 19.11 and 21.34 in the short-term (S).
91% chance of increasing in the medium-term (M).
76% chance of ranging between 19.11 and 21.34 in the short-term (S).
June 2, 2025 at 9:47 AM
VIX week of 6/02:
91% chance of increasing in the medium-term (M).
76% chance of ranging between 19.11 and 21.34 in the short-term (S).
91% chance of increasing in the medium-term (M).
76% chance of ranging between 19.11 and 21.34 in the short-term (S).
/NQ week of 6/02:
70% chance of a pullback in the medium-term (M).
74%chance of a pullback in the short-term (S).
70% chance of a pullback in the medium-term (M).
74%chance of a pullback in the short-term (S).
June 2, 2025 at 9:43 AM
/NQ week of 6/02:
70% chance of a pullback in the medium-term (M).
74%chance of a pullback in the short-term (S).
70% chance of a pullback in the medium-term (M).
74%chance of a pullback in the short-term (S).
BTC week of 6/02:
60% chance of a pullback in the medium-term (M).
38% chance of a pullback in the short-term (S).
60% chance of a pullback in the medium-term (M).
38% chance of a pullback in the short-term (S).
June 2, 2025 at 9:38 AM
BTC week of 6/02:
60% chance of a pullback in the medium-term (M).
38% chance of a pullback in the short-term (S).
60% chance of a pullback in the medium-term (M).
38% chance of a pullback in the short-term (S).
Tests are done. TRADE, TREND, TAIL forecasting levels need a bit of tweaking but otherwise works. Now let’s do some actual forecasting — that’s the real test (combo with the RR forecast levels). This will be like a weather app, but for markets 📝🔍
TRADE, TREND and TAIL forecast levels are finally ready for testing in the wild (used along with the risk range forecast levels). Testing for 3 months using VIX, /NQ + BTC 👇
June 2, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Tests are done. TRADE, TREND, TAIL forecasting levels need a bit of tweaking but otherwise works. Now let’s do some actual forecasting — that’s the real test (combo with the RR forecast levels). This will be like a weather app, but for markets 📝🔍
TEST—VIX week of 5/26: not trending below the chop bucket. TREND forecast level still @ 38.55 — note the weekly RR formation.
May 27, 2025 at 11:43 AM
TEST—VIX week of 5/26: not trending below the chop bucket. TREND forecast level still @ 38.55 — note the weekly RR formation.
TEST—/NQ week of 5/26: note the formation of the weekly RR. 19,011.13 is still the TREND forecast level.
May 27, 2025 at 11:36 AM
TEST—/NQ week of 5/26: note the formation of the weekly RR. 19,011.13 is still the TREND forecast level.
TEST—BTC week of 5/26: TREND forecast level ↑ @ 93,210.35 — LERR (W) forecast levels forming a straight line to the upper right hand corner 🔍
May 27, 2025 at 11:29 AM
TEST—BTC week of 5/26: TREND forecast level ↑ @ 93,210.35 — LERR (W) forecast levels forming a straight line to the upper right hand corner 🔍
TEST—VIX week of 5/19: (Better late than never.) TRADE forecast level + (D) LERR and HERR forecast levels. (W) HERR 👀
May 20, 2025 at 2:04 PM
TEST—VIX week of 5/19: (Better late than never.) TRADE forecast level + (D) LERR and HERR forecast levels. (W) HERR 👀
TEST—/NQ week of 5/19: (Better late than never.) TRADE and TREND forecast levels + (D and W) LERR and HERR forecast levels 👀
May 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM
TEST—/NQ week of 5/19: (Better late than never.) TRADE and TREND forecast levels + (D and W) LERR and HERR forecast levels 👀
TEST—BTC week of 5/19: (Better late than never.) TREND forecast level (↑). TRADE forecast level 👀
May 20, 2025 at 1:55 PM
TEST—BTC week of 5/19: (Better late than never.) TREND forecast level (↑). TRADE forecast level 👀
TEST—VIX week of 5/12: first day back in the investable bucket. Will it trend? If not that’s a big higher low on the RR. TAIL forecast level remains @ 38.18.
May 12, 2025 at 2:42 PM
TEST—VIX week of 5/12: first day back in the investable bucket. Will it trend? If not that’s a big higher low on the RR. TAIL forecast level remains @ 38.18.
TEST—/NQ week of 5/12: TREND forecast level @ 18,725.75 (↓), LERR (W) forecast level is flat. If this fails here, that’s a big lower high on the RR 🔍
May 12, 2025 at 2:38 PM
TEST—/NQ week of 5/12: TREND forecast level @ 18,725.75 (↓), LERR (W) forecast level is flat. If this fails here, that’s a big lower high on the RR 🔍