Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)
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aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)
@aurora.nws-bot.us
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A bot sharing aurora forecast details from the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

This account is unmonitored. Contact @wandrme.paxex.aero if needed.
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aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-17T02:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 00-03UT 3.67 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 4.00 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 3.00 2.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 S1 or greater 10% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 R1-R2 55% 20% 10% R3 or greater 15% 1% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 19 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 17, 2025 at 2:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T22:21:14Z

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5151
Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5152 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 16 2217 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5151 Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 17 1200 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 2.67 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 3.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 20% R3 or greater 15% 15% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due o the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 18 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 10:21 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T20:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 2.67 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 3.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 20% R3 or greater 15% 15% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due o the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 18 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 8:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T14:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 2.67 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 3.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 20% R3 or greater 15% 15% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due o the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 18 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 2:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T08:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 1.33 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 1.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.33 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 40% R3 or greater 20% 15% 5% Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. By 18 Nov, there is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts due to the flare potential from Region 4274. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 8:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T03:10:46Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 16 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2608 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 16 0303 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 16 0259 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 1.33 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 1.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.33 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 40% R3 or greater 20% 15% 5% Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. By 18 Nov, there is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts due to the flare potential from Region 4274. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 3:10 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T02:30:56Z

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5150
Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 16 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5151 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 16 0219 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5150 Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 16 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 1.33 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 1.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.33 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 40% R3 or greater 20% 15% 5% Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. By 18 Nov, there is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts due to the flare potential from Region 4274. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 2:31 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T02:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 1.33 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 1.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.33 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 40% R3 or greater 20% 15% 5% Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. By 18 Nov, there is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts due to the flare potential from Region 4274. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 2:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-15T20:11:25Z

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Nov 16 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5150 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 15 2002 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC Valid To: 2025 Nov 16 0300 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 00-03UT 1.67 2.00 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 1.67 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 2.00 1.33 4.00 09-12UT 1.67 1.33 3.67 12-15UT 2.00 2.00 3.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.33 4.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 3.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 S1 or greater 20% 15% 10% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 15-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 2012 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 R1-R2 70% 60% 55% R3 or greater 30% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 15-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 15, 2025 at 8:11 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-15T20:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 00-03UT 1.67 2.00 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 1.67 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 2.00 1.33 4.00 09-12UT 1.67 1.33 3.67 12-15UT 2.00 2.00 3.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.33 4.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 3.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 S1 or greater 20% 15% 10% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 15-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 2012 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 R1-R2 70% 60% 55% R3 or greater 30% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 15-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 15, 2025 at 8:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-15T14:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 00-03UT 1.67 2.00 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 1.67 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 2.00 1.33 4.00 09-12UT 1.67 1.33 3.67 12-15UT 2.00 2.00 3.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.33 4.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 3.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 S1 or greater 20% 15% 10% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 15-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 2012 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 R1-R2 70% 60% 55% R3 or greater 30% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 15-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 15, 2025 at 2:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-15T08:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 00-03UT 2.33 2.00 3.67 03-06UT 3.00 1.67 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 2.33 1.33 4.00 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 3.67 12-15UT 1.33 2.00 3.33 15-18UT 1.33 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.00 4.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.33 5.00 (G1) 3.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely by late on 16 Nov through 17 Nov due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 S1 or greater 40% 25% 10% Rationale: A chance exists for an S1 event on 15-16 Nov decreasing to a slight chance on 17 Nov, all due to the presence of AR 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 0830 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 R1-R2 70% 70% 60% R3 or greater 30% 30% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 17 Nov primarily due to AR 4274s past flare history coupled with its current potential. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 15, 2025 at 8:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-15T02:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 00-03UT 2.33 2.00 3.67 03-06UT 3.00 1.67 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 2.33 1.33 4.00 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 3.67 12-15UT 1.33 2.00 3.33 15-18UT 1.33 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.00 4.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.33 5.00 (G1) 3.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely by late on 16 Nov through 17 Nov due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 S1 or greater 40% 25% 10% Rationale: A chance exists for an S1 event on 15-16 Nov decreasing to a slight chance on 17 Nov, all due to the presence of AR 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 0830 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 R1-R2 70% 70% 60% R3 or greater 30% 30% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 17 Nov primarily due to AR 4274s past flare history coupled with its current potential. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 15, 2025 at 2:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-14T20:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 00-03UT 2.00 2.33 2.00 03-06UT 0.67 3.00 1.67 06-09UT 1.67 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 1.67 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 2.67 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 3.00 1.33 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 4.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 5.00 (G1) Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 Nov as CME effects linger. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely by late on 16 Nov due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 S1 or greater 99% 40% 40% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storming is in progress on 14 Nov. A chance exists for an S1 event on 15-16 Nov. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 0830 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 R1-R2 70% 70% 70% R3 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 16 Nov primarily due to AR 4274s past flare history coupled with its current potential. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 14, 2025 at 8:07 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-14T14:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 00-03UT 2.00 2.33 2.00 03-06UT 0.67 3.00 1.67 06-09UT 1.67 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 1.67 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 2.67 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 3.00 1.33 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 4.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 5.00 (G1) Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 Nov as CME effects linger. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely by late on 16 Nov due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 S1 or greater 99% 40% 40% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storming is in progress on 14 Nov. A chance exists for an S1 event on 15-16 Nov. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 0830 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 R1-R2 70% 70% 70% R3 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 16 Nov primarily due to AR 4274s past flare history coupled with its current potential. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 14, 2025 at 2:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-14T08:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.00 03-06UT 6.00 (G2) 3.00 1.67 06-09UT 4.33 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 4.00 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 2.67 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 3.00 1.33 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 4.00 21-00UT 3.33 2.33 5.00 (G1) Rationale: G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is expected during the early periods of 14 Nov as CME effects linger. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely by late on 16 Nov due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 S1 or greater 40% 40% 40% Rationale: A moderate chance for an S1 or greater radiation storm event will persist through 16 Nov as AR 4274 approaches the western limb of the solar disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 R1-R2 70% 70% 70% R3 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a low chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 16 Nov primarily due to AR 4274s past flare history coupled with its current potential. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 14, 2025 at 8:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-14T02:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.00 03-06UT 6.00 (G2) 3.00 1.67 06-09UT 4.33 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 4.00 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 2.67 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 3.00 1.33 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 4.00 21-00UT 3.33 2.33 5.00 (G1) Rationale: G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is expected during the early periods of 14 Nov as CME effects linger. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely by late on 16 Nov due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 S1 or greater 40% 40% 40% Rationale: A moderate chance for an S1 or greater radiation storm event will persist through 16 Nov as AR 4274 approaches the western limb of the solar disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 R1-R2 70% 70% 70% R3 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a low chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 16 Nov primarily due to AR 4274s past flare history coupled with its current potential. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 14, 2025 at 2:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T21:01:30Z

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2137
Valid From: 2025 Nov 11 2343 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 14 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05 Serial Number: 2138 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 2056 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2137 Valid From: 2025 Nov 11 2343 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 14 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 4.00 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13 Nov. G1 storm levels are likely on 14 Nov, followed by quiet to active periods until 15 Nov, as the CME ongoing effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through the remaining hours of 13 Nov before slowly decreasing to background levels over 14-15 Nov as CME influences wanes. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 80% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) radio blackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 rotates out of the solar disk in the next few days. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 13, 2025 at 9:01 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T21:01:26Z

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5148
Valid From: 2025 Nov 11 2230 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 14 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5149 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 2058 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5148 Valid From: 2025 Nov 11 2230 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 14 1200 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 4.00 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13 Nov. G1 storm levels are likely on 14 Nov, followed by quiet to active periods until 15 Nov, as the CME ongoing effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through the remaining hours of 13 Nov before slowly decreasing to background levels over 14-15 Nov as CME influences wanes. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 80% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) radio blackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 rotates out of the solar disk in the next few days. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 13, 2025 at 9:01 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T14:41:08Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 1435 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 1914 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 1436 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 1435 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 4.00 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13 Nov. G1 storm levels are likely on 14 Nov, followed by quiet to active periods until 15 Nov, as the CME ongoing effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through the remaining hours of 13 Nov before slowly decreasing to background levels over 14-15 Nov as CME influences wanes. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 80% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) radio blackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 rotates out of the solar disk in the next few days. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 13, 2025 at 2:41 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T14:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 4.00 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13 Nov. G1 storm levels are likely on 14 Nov, followed by quiet to active periods until 15 Nov, as the CME ongoing effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through the remaining hours of 13 Nov before slowly decreasing to background levels over 14-15 Nov as CME influences wanes. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 80% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) radio blackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 rotates out of the solar disk in the next few days. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 13, 2025 at 2:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T08:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale G5). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 8.00 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 8.33 (G4) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 7.33 (G3) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 4.33 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences pass beyond the near-Earth environment. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 85% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 13, 2025 at 8:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T07:41:20Z

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2136
Valid From: 2025 Nov 11 2343 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 13 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05 Serial Number: 2137 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 0732 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2136 Valid From: 2025 Nov 11 2343 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 13 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale G5). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 8.00 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 8.33 (G4) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 7.33 (G3) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 4.33 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences pass beyond the near-Earth environment. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 85% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 13, 2025 at 7:41 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T07:41:15Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0723 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 676 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 0732 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0723 UTC Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale G5). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 8.00 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 8.33 (G4) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 7.33 (G3) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 4.33 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences pass beyond the near-Earth environment. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 85% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 13, 2025 at 7:41 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T07:11:37Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0647 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 1913 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 0704 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0647 UTC Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale G5). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 8.00 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 8.33 (G4) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 7.33 (G3) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 4.33 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences pass beyond the near-Earth environment. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 85% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 13, 2025 at 7:11 AM