Ángel Talavera
@atalaveraecon.bsky.social
European economist. Spanglish tweets. Personal opinions.
Asumimos caída consumo eléctrico supone igual caída de actividad. Así pues, si el consumo cayó un 50% durante la mitad del día, eso nos daría una caída de actividad del 25%, es decir 1.125 millones.
April 30, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Asumimos caída consumo eléctrico supone igual caída de actividad. Así pues, si el consumo cayó un 50% durante la mitad del día, eso nos daría una caída de actividad del 25%, es decir 1.125 millones.
Posted without comment.
April 28, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Posted without comment.
Is the German bond the ultimate safe asset now?
Global correlation means German bonds and US 10YR treasuries move in the same direction more than 90% of the time. But the Bund has seen its yield fall 5 days already in the past month when yields on 10YR treasuries have risen.
Global correlation means German bonds and US 10YR treasuries move in the same direction more than 90% of the time. But the Bund has seen its yield fall 5 days already in the past month when yields on 10YR treasuries have risen.
April 10, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Is the German bond the ultimate safe asset now?
Global correlation means German bonds and US 10YR treasuries move in the same direction more than 90% of the time. But the Bund has seen its yield fall 5 days already in the past month when yields on 10YR treasuries have risen.
Global correlation means German bonds and US 10YR treasuries move in the same direction more than 90% of the time. But the Bund has seen its yield fall 5 days already in the past month when yields on 10YR treasuries have risen.
A multi billion theme park here? Mmmmkay
April 9, 2025 at 7:15 AM
A multi billion theme park here? Mmmmkay
You often hear how the US is the EU's largest trading partner, but people understimate HOW MUCH MORE EU countries trade among themselves. How much? 12 times more on avg. So for an avg European country, a 50% decline in exports to the US would be offset by a 4% rise in EU exports.
March 27, 2025 at 11:26 AM
You often hear how the US is the EU's largest trading partner, but people understimate HOW MUCH MORE EU countries trade among themselves. How much? 12 times more on avg. So for an avg European country, a 50% decline in exports to the US would be offset by a 4% rise in EU exports.
Look what activist fiscal policy does to expectations.
March 10, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Look what activist fiscal policy does to expectations.
Old enough to remember when "there is no private demand for peripheral sovereign debt" just because the ECB was absorbing all the issuance. Right.
February 7, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Old enough to remember when "there is no private demand for peripheral sovereign debt" just because the ECB was absorbing all the issuance. Right.
Your regular reminder that the US is an incredibly closed economy, and that Europe stands to lose a lot more from direct trade impacts in a trade war.
February 3, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Your regular reminder that the US is an incredibly closed economy, and that Europe stands to lose a lot more from direct trade impacts in a trade war.
A lot has been written about the outperformance of Europe's periphery, but the reduction of imbalances in the past decade has been nothing short of extraordinary. Portugal has gone from having one of the largest deficits in the world to being second best in the EZ, with Spain close behind.
January 22, 2025 at 3:24 PM
A lot has been written about the outperformance of Europe's periphery, but the reduction of imbalances in the past decade has been nothing short of extraordinary. Portugal has gone from having one of the largest deficits in the world to being second best in the EZ, with Spain close behind.
Here's a cool chart of the impact of climate change on tourism in Spain.
Tourism is well above where it was before the pandemic, but it's growing three times faster during the winter and autumn months than during peak summer.
Tourism is well above where it was before the pandemic, but it's growing three times faster during the winter and autumn months than during peak summer.
January 8, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Here's a cool chart of the impact of climate change on tourism in Spain.
Tourism is well above where it was before the pandemic, but it's growing three times faster during the winter and autumn months than during peak summer.
Tourism is well above where it was before the pandemic, but it's growing three times faster during the winter and autumn months than during peak summer.
The latest Economic Sentiment Indicator survey for the EU is out, and I can only describe it as crap. Employment expectations down, unemployment up and prices expectations higher as well. I don't like using the word stagflation lightly but this sure looks like a pretty bad mix.
January 8, 2025 at 10:30 AM
The latest Economic Sentiment Indicator survey for the EU is out, and I can only describe it as crap. Employment expectations down, unemployment up and prices expectations higher as well. I don't like using the word stagflation lightly but this sure looks like a pretty bad mix.
December PMIs are out and nothing new, Spain continues to power ahead a cut above the rest.
January 6, 2025 at 8:42 AM
December PMIs are out and nothing new, Spain continues to power ahead a cut above the rest.
Bring back this guy
January 3, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Bring back this guy
Spain's economic performance has got a lot of attention lately, and for good reason. Almost half of the eurozone's growth this year has been driven by Spain, a country that represents 10% of the euro area economy.
January 2, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Spain's economic performance has got a lot of attention lately, and for good reason. Almost half of the eurozone's growth this year has been driven by Spain, a country that represents 10% of the euro area economy.
You may not like it but this is what pre-Christmas peak performance looks like. A drink at the market's cafe/bar before raiding the butchers and the fishmongers for tonight's dinner.
December 24, 2024 at 12:17 PM
You may not like it but this is what pre-Christmas peak performance looks like. A drink at the market's cafe/bar before raiding the butchers and the fishmongers for tonight's dinner.
As with all these things, best taken with a pinch of salt, but ECB wage tracker suggests a strong moderation in wages in 2025 (our view as well, incidentally). With wages down to a 2-3% range, no reason why services and core inflation should not go down to levels compatible with the 2% target.
December 18, 2024 at 2:54 PM
As with all these things, best taken with a pinch of salt, but ECB wage tracker suggests a strong moderation in wages in 2025 (our view as well, incidentally). With wages down to a 2-3% range, no reason why services and core inflation should not go down to levels compatible with the 2% target.
Prices go down never quite as catchy as prices go up, but look, European gas prices down 20% in the past two weeks. Looking forward to the next freak out cycle.
December 17, 2024 at 11:01 AM
Prices go down never quite as catchy as prices go up, but look, European gas prices down 20% in the past two weeks. Looking forward to the next freak out cycle.
Would take some digging, but looks similar based on this
December 16, 2024 at 11:36 AM
Would take some digging, but looks similar based on this
But also a lot more renewables
December 16, 2024 at 11:28 AM
But also a lot more renewables
We often hear about energy prices in Germany and what a disastrous transition they've done, but Italy is the one looking real bad. Spain on the other hand is reaping the benefits of lower costs the last couple of years.
December 16, 2024 at 11:15 AM
We often hear about energy prices in Germany and what a disastrous transition they've done, but Italy is the one looking real bad. Spain on the other hand is reaping the benefits of lower costs the last couple of years.
December looks like another month of Spain excepcionalism based on the preliminary PMIs. GDP is tracking to expand at over 3% annualised.
December 16, 2024 at 9:46 AM
December looks like another month of Spain excepcionalism based on the preliminary PMIs. GDP is tracking to expand at over 3% annualised.
Lol, think we've lost the plot now if anyone thinks there was a ever a time of clear winter skies in the UK.
December 13, 2024 at 3:10 PM
Lol, think we've lost the plot now if anyone thinks there was a ever a time of clear winter skies in the UK.