An ELEvo run is already available, this storm with the X4 flare had an initial speed of about 1500 km/s and direction of 62° west.

Then the coronagraph images by SOHO/LASCO -

Here is todays Nov 14 #solarstorm (NOT Earth directed 🙃) in its full glory - it has one super interesting feature concerning future #spaceweather missions!
Guess which 🤔
First the solar source as imaged in extreme ultraviolet by NASA/SDO:

The #solarstorm from the X5 flare on Tue Nov 11 has an initial speed of 1800 km/s. We model it to arrive at Earth on Wed Nov 12 18:24 CET ± 6 hours (ELEvo method). The night from Wednesday to Thursday now looks better in terms of #aurora, and if the storm is strong maybe GNSS errors are possible.

The SOHO LASCO instrument is drowned in solar energetic particles due to the X5 flare earlier today Nov 11. A bit west of the disk center the particles are magnetically well connected to Earth. A massive #solarstorm was produced which we will model once initial conditions are available.

The source region of both #solarstorms, one from early Sunday Nov 9, and the other from early Monday Nov 10, are (as usual) complex. Judging from the main neutral line, where the +/white, and -/black magnetic fields meet, we may expect a magnetic field rotation as south-east-north (SEN) or ENW.

Another #solarstorm is approaching Earth 🌍 It's associated with an X1.2-class solar flare, again from active region AR 14274 (same as the CME predicted to arrive late tomorrow). It has an estimated initial speed of 1208 km/s - expected arrival is Wednesday, November 12th around 02:47 ± 5.67 UTC.

A #solarstorm with an initial speed of ~730 km/s is on its way toward Earth! It’s associated with an X1.7-class flare that peaked today around 07:35 UTC.
The CME is expected to arrive Tuesday, 11 November, around 20:00 UTC (21:00 CET).
Let’s hope for a better aurora show than on Friday🤞🌌