Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer
@ashafferwx.bsky.social
Retired TV meteorologist, UW-Madison graduate in Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences. Bike commuting, mountain biking, windsurfing, skiing, backpacking, canoeing. Protect the Boundary Waters Canoe Area. Minneapolis Bicycle Advisory Committee Ward 8.
Small amount of snow coming to Minneapolis - but expect big winds (30-40mph) + dropping temperatures this afternoon. Not a great day to be outside in Minnesota. #MNWX
December 18, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Small amount of snow coming to Minneapolis - but expect big winds (30-40mph) + dropping temperatures this afternoon. Not a great day to be outside in Minnesota. #MNWX
Latest high-res models showing those higher totals REALLY close to Minneapolis - as in northern Mpls might be in them, south Mpls might be as well. Looking like a very sharp gradient dependent on where/if rain/freezing rain sets up between 2-3" of snow and 4-6". #MNWX
December 9, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Latest high-res models showing those higher totals REALLY close to Minneapolis - as in northern Mpls might be in them, south Mpls might be as well. Looking like a very sharp gradient dependent on where/if rain/freezing rain sets up between 2-3" of snow and 4-6". #MNWX
I missed this - but we're at our earliest sunset time in Minneapolis right now - 4:31 p.m. We'll be here until December 15, when we finally add a minute instead of subtracting, to 4:32 p.m. Baby steps. #MNWX
December 9, 2025 at 5:54 PM
I missed this - but we're at our earliest sunset time in Minneapolis right now - 4:31 p.m. We'll be here until December 15, when we finally add a minute instead of subtracting, to 4:32 p.m. Baby steps. #MNWX
Looks like today's snow should start midday. Slight risk of rain or freezing rain briefly ahead of snow - very borderline. 2"+ of snow likely by Wednesday. Note the sharp increase in snow totals as you look north! #mnwx
December 9, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Looks like today's snow should start midday. Slight risk of rain or freezing rain briefly ahead of snow - very borderline. 2"+ of snow likely by Wednesday. Note the sharp increase in snow totals as you look north! #mnwx
Worth mentioning that there's a quick-moving line of snow headed toward Minneapolis right now - could be 1/2 inch or so, and this is not part of tomorrow's storm. #mnwx
December 8, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Worth mentioning that there's a quick-moving line of snow headed toward Minneapolis right now - could be 1/2 inch or so, and this is not part of tomorrow's storm. #mnwx
An inch or so of snow is likely Tuesday - enough to complicate travel. But... there's a slim chance of more. This NWS graphic explains it well. #mnwx
December 8, 2025 at 11:34 PM
An inch or so of snow is likely Tuesday - enough to complicate travel. But... there's a slim chance of more. This NWS graphic explains it well. #mnwx
Another weak system arrives Friday, which could make morning and later travel by car difficult. Models, as usual, vary - this 3KM NAM is a go-to of mine and has some of the higher totals, still near 1"+ of snow, maybe up to 2" for some. HRRR arrives closer to 9, NAM closer to 7. #MNWX
December 4, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Another weak system arrives Friday, which could make morning and later travel by car difficult. Models, as usual, vary - this 3KM NAM is a go-to of mine and has some of the higher totals, still near 1"+ of snow, maybe up to 2" for some. HRRR arrives closer to 9, NAM closer to 7. #MNWX
Also forgot to share the picture.
December 4, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Also forgot to share the picture.
Update: Still looking like around 3-6" of really heavy (in the literal - it will weigh a lot sense) snow overnight. Looking for that transition between about 6-8 p.m. tonight. Snow should be over but very gusty winds will remain in the morning. Heavier totals likely found north metro. #MNWX
November 25, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Update: Still looking like around 3-6" of really heavy (in the literal - it will weigh a lot sense) snow overnight. Looking for that transition between about 6-8 p.m. tonight. Snow should be over but very gusty winds will remain in the morning. Heavier totals likely found north metro. #MNWX
Models, as usual, are all over the place, trending north and south at different times. Right now the range I'd go with is 3-7" in the Twin Cities - and if I had to put money on *one* number, I'd say to expect 3" of heavy, slushy snow. #MNWX
Image is 3KM NAM forecast, with about 3-4" of snow.
Image is 3KM NAM forecast, with about 3-4" of snow.
November 25, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Models, as usual, are all over the place, trending north and south at different times. Right now the range I'd go with is 3-7" in the Twin Cities - and if I had to put money on *one* number, I'd say to expect 3" of heavy, slushy snow. #MNWX
Image is 3KM NAM forecast, with about 3-4" of snow.
Image is 3KM NAM forecast, with about 3-4" of snow.
Snow totals still looking interesting across Minnesota Tuesday-Wednesday. As usual, it's borderline/fringe snow in the Twin Cities - or it's not. Right now, the European ECMWF model shows roughly 2" in the Twin Cities, with a quick increase north. The GFS shows more snow + southern creep. #MNWX
November 24, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Snow totals still looking interesting across Minnesota Tuesday-Wednesday. As usual, it's borderline/fringe snow in the Twin Cities - or it's not. Right now, the European ECMWF model shows roughly 2" in the Twin Cities, with a quick increase north. The GFS shows more snow + southern creep. #MNWX
Looking at possible snow in Minnesota and the Twin Cities on Tuesday evening through early Wednesday - switching from rain earlier in the day Tuesday. Then winter seems to begin - at least for the time being. Snow totals depend on changeover time+stormtrack, but 2-3 slushy inches possible. #mnwx
November 22, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Looking at possible snow in Minnesota and the Twin Cities on Tuesday evening through early Wednesday - switching from rain earlier in the day Tuesday. Then winter seems to begin - at least for the time being. Snow totals depend on changeover time+stormtrack, but 2-3 slushy inches possible. #mnwx
Finally got my film developed from our recent trip! These were taken with Fuji 35mm film along the Amstel River in Amsterdam. Two windmills, two bikes.
November 22, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Finally got my film developed from our recent trip! These were taken with Fuji 35mm film along the Amstel River in Amsterdam. Two windmills, two bikes.
I've been sleeping on this one - but you shouldn't. There's a CHANCE of some light snow accumulation overnight. Some model runs still showing it missing us entirely - some 1-2" of slushy snow (I'd expect roughly 1" to be safe). Timing is just after midnight - so you'll know when you wake up! #MNWX
November 17, 2025 at 8:39 PM
I've been sleeping on this one - but you shouldn't. There's a CHANCE of some light snow accumulation overnight. Some model runs still showing it missing us entirely - some 1-2" of slushy snow (I'd expect roughly 1" to be safe). Timing is just after midnight - so you'll know when you wake up! #MNWX
Probably my last day windsurfing - but an absolute blast at Bde Maka Ska. Gusts in the 35mph range. Water temps around 45°.
November 15, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Probably my last day windsurfing - but an absolute blast at Bde Maka Ska. Gusts in the 35mph range. Water temps around 45°.
Tried windsurfing today but the wind never really came.
November 14, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Tried windsurfing today but the wind never really came.
From our house just now in south Minneapolis. Amazing reddish aurora.
November 12, 2025 at 3:24 AM
From our house just now in south Minneapolis. Amazing reddish aurora.
Northern lights just now at Lake Harriet - and you can see reds and greens with your naked eye.
November 12, 2025 at 2:15 AM
Northern lights just now at Lake Harriet - and you can see reds and greens with your naked eye.
Cold front coming through Minneapolis and St. Paul shortly. This image on radar shows a line of light to moderate rain that'll move through over the next hour, dropping our temperatures for Tuesday down into the mid to upper 40s for highs. #mnwx
October 20, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Cold front coming through Minneapolis and St. Paul shortly. This image on radar shows a line of light to moderate rain that'll move through over the next hour, dropping our temperatures for Tuesday down into the mid to upper 40s for highs. #mnwx
Proud of my city and state today!
October 18, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Proud of my city and state today!