Arvind Ravikumar
@arvindpawan1.bsky.social
Assistant Professor, University of Texas at Austin
Co-Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis (CEESA) studying greenhouse gas emissions measurements and carbon accounting across global energy supply chains.
Co-Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis (CEESA) studying greenhouse gas emissions measurements and carbon accounting across global energy supply chains.
China shows what energy dominance might look like. Not only does China export more clean tech than US does fossil fuels, Chinese exports are (i) accelerating, and (ii) highly diversified across products & destinations.
This is a major warning sign for the US!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
This is a major warning sign for the US!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 6, 2025 at 2:00 PM
China shows what energy dominance might look like. Not only does China export more clean tech than US does fossil fuels, Chinese exports are (i) accelerating, and (ii) highly diversified across products & destinations.
This is a major warning sign for the US!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
This is a major warning sign for the US!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
This is one of the most eloquent piece I've read in a long time. h/t @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social
www.bostonreview.net/articles/how...
www.bostonreview.net/articles/how...
September 23, 2025 at 7:19 PM
This is one of the most eloquent piece I've read in a long time. h/t @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social
www.bostonreview.net/articles/how...
www.bostonreview.net/articles/how...
Cool study - using AI to show people car-free visuals of familiar streets helped increase support for transit-oriented policies.
What was hilarious was this description of the nightmare that is I-35 in Austin as "popular American street, the I-35 in Austin".
Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
What was hilarious was this description of the nightmare that is I-35 in Austin as "popular American street, the I-35 in Austin".
Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
September 9, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Cool study - using AI to show people car-free visuals of familiar streets helped increase support for transit-oriented policies.
What was hilarious was this description of the nightmare that is I-35 in Austin as "popular American street, the I-35 in Austin".
Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
What was hilarious was this description of the nightmare that is I-35 in Austin as "popular American street, the I-35 in Austin".
Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
My research group had a great 2-day back-to-school retreat last week, doing mini-hackathons and addressing shared challenges!
What a great way to start the semester! #HookEm
What a great way to start the semester! #HookEm
August 25, 2025 at 6:40 PM
My research group had a great 2-day back-to-school retreat last week, doing mini-hackathons and addressing shared challenges!
What a great way to start the semester! #HookEm
What a great way to start the semester! #HookEm
We are not prepared for $5 natural gas - notice how the CIs are skewed high? There's significant upward pressure on prices.
- Demand growth from datacenter +LNG
- Limited supply growth (perhaps East Texas?)
Keeping consumer prices low requires shielding them from costs to serve large loads.
- Demand growth from datacenter +LNG
- Limited supply growth (perhaps East Texas?)
Keeping consumer prices low requires shielding them from costs to serve large loads.
August 4, 2025 at 2:11 PM
We are not prepared for $5 natural gas - notice how the CIs are skewed high? There's significant upward pressure on prices.
- Demand growth from datacenter +LNG
- Limited supply growth (perhaps East Texas?)
Keeping consumer prices low requires shielding them from costs to serve large loads.
- Demand growth from datacenter +LNG
- Limited supply growth (perhaps East Texas?)
Keeping consumer prices low requires shielding them from costs to serve large loads.
We want to reframe debate around LNG.
❌ What is the carbon intensity of US LNG?
✅ What is the risk that the carbon intensity of US LNG exceeds 30 g CO2e/MJ (or other threshold)?
Buying low-carbon LNG is a risk management problem, not a supply chain assessment problem.
❌ What is the carbon intensity of US LNG?
✅ What is the risk that the carbon intensity of US LNG exceeds 30 g CO2e/MJ (or other threshold)?
Buying low-carbon LNG is a risk management problem, not a supply chain assessment problem.
July 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
We want to reframe debate around LNG.
❌ What is the carbon intensity of US LNG?
✅ What is the risk that the carbon intensity of US LNG exceeds 30 g CO2e/MJ (or other threshold)?
Buying low-carbon LNG is a risk management problem, not a supply chain assessment problem.
❌ What is the carbon intensity of US LNG?
✅ What is the risk that the carbon intensity of US LNG exceeds 30 g CO2e/MJ (or other threshold)?
Buying low-carbon LNG is a risk management problem, not a supply chain assessment problem.
More shockingly, GHG intensities are highly skewed - evidence of super-emitting supply chains.
Traditional LCAs assume normally distributed risks. By including data, distributions become log-normal—highlighting significant tail risks that are otherwise invisible to deterministic LCA approaches.
Traditional LCAs assume normally distributed risks. By including data, distributions become log-normal—highlighting significant tail risks that are otherwise invisible to deterministic LCA approaches.
July 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
More shockingly, GHG intensities are highly skewed - evidence of super-emitting supply chains.
Traditional LCAs assume normally distributed risks. By including data, distributions become log-normal—highlighting significant tail risks that are otherwise invisible to deterministic LCA approaches.
Traditional LCAs assume normally distributed risks. By including data, distributions become log-normal—highlighting significant tail risks that are otherwise invisible to deterministic LCA approaches.
Measurement informed GHG intensity is about 30% higher than inventory-only based estimates.
Based on empirical data, the US actually has lower average GHG intensity than other exporters. This is why EU #methane rules are the best thing to happen to the US #LNG industry. It forces others to measure.
Based on empirical data, the US actually has lower average GHG intensity than other exporters. This is why EU #methane rules are the best thing to happen to the US #LNG industry. It forces others to measure.
July 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Conventional lifecycle assessments (LCA) use official inventories, which underestimates emissions.
By incorporating satellite data, we find ~5x variation in GHG intensity - from <9 g CO2e/MJ in Qatar to ~40 g CO2e/MJ in Algeria.
The pink bars? Those are emissions missing from conventional LCAs.
By incorporating satellite data, we find ~5x variation in GHG intensity - from <9 g CO2e/MJ in Qatar to ~40 g CO2e/MJ in Algeria.
The pink bars? Those are emissions missing from conventional LCAs.
July 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Conventional lifecycle assessments (LCA) use official inventories, which underestimates emissions.
By incorporating satellite data, we find ~5x variation in GHG intensity - from <9 g CO2e/MJ in Qatar to ~40 g CO2e/MJ in Algeria.
The pink bars? Those are emissions missing from conventional LCAs.
By incorporating satellite data, we find ~5x variation in GHG intensity - from <9 g CO2e/MJ in Qatar to ~40 g CO2e/MJ in Algeria.
The pink bars? Those are emissions missing from conventional LCAs.
You've heard of #methane super-emitters at oil and gas facilities.
But have you heard of super-emitting LNG supply chains?
Our latest work uses satellite data on 12 LNG exporting countries to assess their GHG intensity.
Paper: chemrxiv.org/engage/chemr...
But have you heard of super-emitting LNG supply chains?
Our latest work uses satellite data on 12 LNG exporting countries to assess their GHG intensity.
Paper: chemrxiv.org/engage/chemr...
July 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
You've heard of #methane super-emitters at oil and gas facilities.
But have you heard of super-emitting LNG supply chains?
Our latest work uses satellite data on 12 LNG exporting countries to assess their GHG intensity.
Paper: chemrxiv.org/engage/chemr...
But have you heard of super-emitting LNG supply chains?
Our latest work uses satellite data on 12 LNG exporting countries to assess their GHG intensity.
Paper: chemrxiv.org/engage/chemr...
Federal policy makers, especially Dems, have a lot to learn from Texas if you want to rapidly expand clean energy.
Even a tech-neutral approach to energy infrastructure expansion will result in an overwhelming build out of clean tech because it's faster and cheaper than fossil fuels.
Even a tech-neutral approach to energy infrastructure expansion will result in an overwhelming build out of clean tech because it's faster and cheaper than fossil fuels.
July 28, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Federal policy makers, especially Dems, have a lot to learn from Texas if you want to rapidly expand clean energy.
Even a tech-neutral approach to energy infrastructure expansion will result in an overwhelming build out of clean tech because it's faster and cheaper than fossil fuels.
Even a tech-neutral approach to energy infrastructure expansion will result in an overwhelming build out of clean tech because it's faster and cheaper than fossil fuels.
We have two major studies dropping next week!
1) Using satellite data on global LNG producers, we discover super-emitting supply chains!
2) We report on the first ever GHG emissions tracing from US LNG supply chains using direct measurements. With counterintuitive fundings!
Stay tuned!
1) Using satellite data on global LNG producers, we discover super-emitting supply chains!
2) We report on the first ever GHG emissions tracing from US LNG supply chains using direct measurements. With counterintuitive fundings!
Stay tuned!
July 25, 2025 at 12:33 AM
We have two major studies dropping next week!
1) Using satellite data on global LNG producers, we discover super-emitting supply chains!
2) We report on the first ever GHG emissions tracing from US LNG supply chains using direct measurements. With counterintuitive fundings!
Stay tuned!
1) Using satellite data on global LNG producers, we discover super-emitting supply chains!
2) We report on the first ever GHG emissions tracing from US LNG supply chains using direct measurements. With counterintuitive fundings!
Stay tuned!
I'm incredibly fortunate to lead a team of brilliant students, scientists, and staff! Working and co-creating science with them has been a source of joy in these uncertain time!
Take a look at what we've been up to!
mailchi.mp/utexas.edu/c...
Take a look at what we've been up to!
mailchi.mp/utexas.edu/c...
July 15, 2025 at 6:10 PM
I'm incredibly fortunate to lead a team of brilliant students, scientists, and staff! Working and co-creating science with them has been a source of joy in these uncertain time!
Take a look at what we've been up to!
mailchi.mp/utexas.edu/c...
Take a look at what we've been up to!
mailchi.mp/utexas.edu/c...
This graphic should be a 5-alarm fire in Congress! China is winning future technology race & is becoming the world's supplier. Meanwhile, US is nowhere on this map & stuck with other petrostates.
We are wholly unprepared for the future & Congress just made it worse!
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
We are wholly unprepared for the future & Congress just made it worse!
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
July 2, 2025 at 12:46 PM
This graphic should be a 5-alarm fire in Congress! China is winning future technology race & is becoming the world's supplier. Meanwhile, US is nowhere on this map & stuck with other petrostates.
We are wholly unprepared for the future & Congress just made it worse!
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
We are wholly unprepared for the future & Congress just made it worse!
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
I'm sure many wouldn't complain about this but it is dangerous to use revocation of citizenship as a political tool.
Our history is dotted with shameful attempts to 'other' fellow Americans, and this seems to be yet another chapter in that awful book! www.axios.com/2025/06/30/t...
Our history is dotted with shameful attempts to 'other' fellow Americans, and this seems to be yet another chapter in that awful book! www.axios.com/2025/06/30/t...
July 1, 2025 at 12:38 PM
I'm sure many wouldn't complain about this but it is dangerous to use revocation of citizenship as a political tool.
Our history is dotted with shameful attempts to 'other' fellow Americans, and this seems to be yet another chapter in that awful book! www.axios.com/2025/06/30/t...
Our history is dotted with shameful attempts to 'other' fellow Americans, and this seems to be yet another chapter in that awful book! www.axios.com/2025/06/30/t...
Had a great time in Brussels engaging with EU officials on the future of #energy in Europe, energy security, and decarbonization goals! Lots of work to do and not a lot of time left to do it.
June 21, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Had a great time in Brussels engaging with EU officials on the future of #energy in Europe, energy security, and decarbonization goals! Lots of work to do and not a lot of time left to do it.
This will quickly become a political problem, whether we want it or not.
To learn more, read about the future of US gas from our third installment of the "Energy Pathways" series. /End
www.ceesa.utexas.edu/energy-pathw...
To learn more, read about the future of US gas from our third installment of the "Energy Pathways" series. /End
www.ceesa.utexas.edu/energy-pathw...
June 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
This will quickly become a political problem, whether we want it or not.
To learn more, read about the future of US gas from our third installment of the "Energy Pathways" series. /End
www.ceesa.utexas.edu/energy-pathw...
To learn more, read about the future of US gas from our third installment of the "Energy Pathways" series. /End
www.ceesa.utexas.edu/energy-pathw...
We haven't even talked about increase in gas-based power generation due to demand from data centers/AI.
S&P Global says AI demand alone would require additional natural gas production of 3 - 6 bcfd. Where is this gas going to come from?
Three things can happen: 4/
www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
S&P Global says AI demand alone would require additional natural gas production of 3 - 6 bcfd. Where is this gas going to come from?
Three things can happen: 4/
www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
June 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
We haven't even talked about increase in gas-based power generation due to demand from data centers/AI.
S&P Global says AI demand alone would require additional natural gas production of 3 - 6 bcfd. Where is this gas going to come from?
Three things can happen: 4/
www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
S&P Global says AI demand alone would require additional natural gas production of 3 - 6 bcfd. Where is this gas going to come from?
Three things can happen: 4/
www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
Worryingly, new production is not keeping up. The three largest gas producing basins are Marcellus, Haynesville, and Permian.
Haynesville is declining. Marcellus is flatlining, limited by pipelines. Only Permian gas is growing. And that is not sufficient to meet demand. 3/
Haynesville is declining. Marcellus is flatlining, limited by pipelines. Only Permian gas is growing. And that is not sufficient to meet demand. 3/
June 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Worryingly, new production is not keeping up. The three largest gas producing basins are Marcellus, Haynesville, and Permian.
Haynesville is declining. Marcellus is flatlining, limited by pipelines. Only Permian gas is growing. And that is not sufficient to meet demand. 3/
Haynesville is declining. Marcellus is flatlining, limited by pipelines. Only Permian gas is growing. And that is not sufficient to meet demand. 3/
Historically, US gas production has grown by 3 bcfd - this is true for 2010 - 2024 period as well as recent post-Covid growth, 2021 - 2024.
Now, expected US LNG growth requires new production of 3 bcfd (+12 bcf between 2025 - 2029). So, every new molecule of gas will need to go to LNG exports. 2/
Now, expected US LNG growth requires new production of 3 bcfd (+12 bcf between 2025 - 2029). So, every new molecule of gas will need to go to LNG exports. 2/
June 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Historically, US gas production has grown by 3 bcfd - this is true for 2010 - 2024 period as well as recent post-Covid growth, 2021 - 2024.
Now, expected US LNG growth requires new production of 3 bcfd (+12 bcf between 2025 - 2029). So, every new molecule of gas will need to go to LNG exports. 2/
Now, expected US LNG growth requires new production of 3 bcfd (+12 bcf between 2025 - 2029). So, every new molecule of gas will need to go to LNG exports. 2/
🚨Is there a reckoning coming for the US natural gas market?
Will the US produce enough natural gas to avoid rapid price increases for consumers?
Gas consumption for exports will increase from 18 bcfd to 30 bcfd by 2029.
Just by volume, that is nearly a third of all gas production in the US. 🧵 1/
Will the US produce enough natural gas to avoid rapid price increases for consumers?
Gas consumption for exports will increase from 18 bcfd to 30 bcfd by 2029.
Just by volume, that is nearly a third of all gas production in the US. 🧵 1/
June 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
🚨Is there a reckoning coming for the US natural gas market?
Will the US produce enough natural gas to avoid rapid price increases for consumers?
Gas consumption for exports will increase from 18 bcfd to 30 bcfd by 2029.
Just by volume, that is nearly a third of all gas production in the US. 🧵 1/
Will the US produce enough natural gas to avoid rapid price increases for consumers?
Gas consumption for exports will increase from 18 bcfd to 30 bcfd by 2029.
Just by volume, that is nearly a third of all gas production in the US. 🧵 1/
Why is India's oil consumption not increasing with income as it happened in China?
Electric motorcycles have been making faster in-roads in the economy than ICE-cars, and there are much more of the former than the latter. India can afford to just wait until EVs become much cheaper.
Electric motorcycles have been making faster in-roads in the economy than ICE-cars, and there are much more of the former than the latter. India can afford to just wait until EVs become much cheaper.
May 28, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Why is India's oil consumption not increasing with income as it happened in China?
Electric motorcycles have been making faster in-roads in the economy than ICE-cars, and there are much more of the former than the latter. India can afford to just wait until EVs become much cheaper.
Electric motorcycles have been making faster in-roads in the economy than ICE-cars, and there are much more of the former than the latter. India can afford to just wait until EVs become much cheaper.
I am an American now, but I was not when I first came here. And this is what I wrote in my thesis acknowledgment.
I think this is still largely true but I'm disappointed and angry that a supposedly conservative administration is actively destroying what made America great.
I think this is still largely true but I'm disappointed and angry that a supposedly conservative administration is actively destroying what made America great.
May 23, 2025 at 11:46 AM
I am an American now, but I was not when I first came here. And this is what I wrote in my thesis acknowledgment.
I think this is still largely true but I'm disappointed and angry that a supposedly conservative administration is actively destroying what made America great.
I think this is still largely true but I'm disappointed and angry that a supposedly conservative administration is actively destroying what made America great.
With so much turmoil in Washington, future prospects for every energy technology are uncertain.
@bencahill.bsky.social is writing an "Energy Pathways" series outlining policy drivers shaping the outlook for various energy sources.
First up is wind energy!
www.ceesa.utexas.edu/energy-pathw...
@bencahill.bsky.social is writing an "Energy Pathways" series outlining policy drivers shaping the outlook for various energy sources.
First up is wind energy!
www.ceesa.utexas.edu/energy-pathw...
May 19, 2025 at 11:58 AM
With so much turmoil in Washington, future prospects for every energy technology are uncertain.
@bencahill.bsky.social is writing an "Energy Pathways" series outlining policy drivers shaping the outlook for various energy sources.
First up is wind energy!
www.ceesa.utexas.edu/energy-pathw...
@bencahill.bsky.social is writing an "Energy Pathways" series outlining policy drivers shaping the outlook for various energy sources.
First up is wind energy!
www.ceesa.utexas.edu/energy-pathw...
The reality is that few Americans want to work on the factory floor. As a theory to address climate change & boost manufacturing, industrial policy seems to have limited support.
While place-based manufacturing might be welcome, we will need a new approach to addressing carbon emissions.
While place-based manufacturing might be welcome, we will need a new approach to addressing carbon emissions.
May 12, 2025 at 2:41 PM
The reality is that few Americans want to work on the factory floor. As a theory to address climate change & boost manufacturing, industrial policy seems to have limited support.
While place-based manufacturing might be welcome, we will need a new approach to addressing carbon emissions.
While place-based manufacturing might be welcome, we will need a new approach to addressing carbon emissions.