Arrie33
@arrie33.bsky.social
Table Tennis, FC Utrecht, Tottenham, Mariners, 76ers in that order
He "cant overlook WS scandal" is what he responded to questions about this on his post last year.
December 15, 2025 at 1:39 AM
He "cant overlook WS scandal" is what he responded to questions about this on his post last year.
He voted for 0 and 1 in 2023 and 2024. So he is late to the party on Beltran, Wagner and Jones, but refused to vote for HOFers Helton, Rolen and Mauer.
These columns where the voters just do a wiki writeup on who their voting for rather than their reasoning + those who were close to getting a vote.
These columns where the voters just do a wiki writeup on who their voting for rather than their reasoning + those who were close to getting a vote.
December 14, 2025 at 5:03 PM
He voted for 0 and 1 in 2023 and 2024. So he is late to the party on Beltran, Wagner and Jones, but refused to vote for HOFers Helton, Rolen and Mauer.
These columns where the voters just do a wiki writeup on who their voting for rather than their reasoning + those who were close to getting a vote.
These columns where the voters just do a wiki writeup on who their voting for rather than their reasoning + those who were close to getting a vote.
There are very few that jumped this much and made it, as getting this jump requires a lower debut % and a ballot with low competition (not the case in 2010s). Having 50%+ in year 2 also usually leaves enough runway to get to 75% down the line (without controversies ofc).
December 13, 2025 at 12:17 PM
There are very few that jumped this much and made it, as getting this jump requires a lower debut % and a ballot with low competition (not the case in 2010s). Having 50%+ in year 2 also usually leaves enough runway to get to 75% down the line (without controversies ofc).
Well, it's early so five ballots without Felix would drop him back over 10%.
Helton & Rolen are the only two such cases in the few years we have had since the years of crowded ballots. Helton jumped 13% and 15% in years 2&3, while Rolen jumped 18% and 17% in years 3&4. Both made it in yr 6.
Helton & Rolen are the only two such cases in the few years we have had since the years of crowded ballots. Helton jumped 13% and 15% in years 2&3, while Rolen jumped 18% and 17% in years 3&4. Both made it in yr 6.
December 13, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Well, it's early so five ballots without Felix would drop him back over 10%.
Helton & Rolen are the only two such cases in the few years we have had since the years of crowded ballots. Helton jumped 13% and 15% in years 2&3, while Rolen jumped 18% and 17% in years 3&4. Both made it in yr 6.
Helton & Rolen are the only two such cases in the few years we have had since the years of crowded ballots. Helton jumped 13% and 15% in years 2&3, while Rolen jumped 18% and 17% in years 3&4. Both made it in yr 6.
Even if Hamels is not getting those votes this year, he will definitely benefit from Felix getting votes.
Whether those benefits will come in time for Buehrle is to be seen.
Whether those benefits will come in time for Buehrle is to be seen.
December 11, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Even if Hamels is not getting those votes this year, he will definitely benefit from Felix getting votes.
Whether those benefits will come in time for Buehrle is to be seen.
Whether those benefits will come in time for Buehrle is to be seen.
Fully convinced that is what happens here. If you drop and add Helton not once, but twice and do the same drop and adds with multiple others in the last 10 years, you are not taking this seriously.
And no, this is not a small hall voter. He voted for Adrian Gonzales.
And no, this is not a small hall voter. He voted for Adrian Gonzales.
December 10, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Fully convinced that is what happens here. If you drop and add Helton not once, but twice and do the same drop and adds with multiple others in the last 10 years, you are not taking this seriously.
And no, this is not a small hall voter. He voted for Adrian Gonzales.
And no, this is not a small hall voter. He voted for Adrian Gonzales.
This makes me wonder about trends among rookie voters and whether they led to induction down the line. For example, do you need at least 50% for induction down the line among rookie voters if you're in the back 5 years of your HoF ballots?
December 9, 2025 at 7:09 PM
This makes me wonder about trends among rookie voters and whether they led to induction down the line. For example, do you need at least 50% for induction down the line among rookie voters if you're in the back 5 years of your HoF ballots?
Odd that he is adding Utley back after dropping him last year with only an 8-vote ballot.
December 9, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Odd that he is adding Utley back after dropping him last year with only an 8-vote ballot.
Because those are matters of preference and likeability matters there.
I meant in the case of Johan that he fell off the ballot more due to a crowded ballot where most likely did not even consider him than just him being not likeable, even if that could have still saved him.
I meant in the case of Johan that he fell off the ballot more due to a crowded ballot where most likely did not even consider him than just him being not likeable, even if that could have still saved him.
December 8, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Because those are matters of preference and likeability matters there.
I meant in the case of Johan that he fell off the ballot more due to a crowded ballot where most likely did not even consider him than just him being not likeable, even if that could have still saved him.
I meant in the case of Johan that he fell off the ballot more due to a crowded ballot where most likely did not even consider him than just him being not likeable, even if that could have still saved him.
Likeability definitely matters, but Santana would still be on the ballot this year if the ballot on his debut looked more like the 2024 ballot.
December 8, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Likeability definitely matters, but Santana would still be on the ballot this year if the ballot on his debut looked more like the 2024 ballot.
In terms of head-to-head merit, yes.
In terms of votes, Santana competed with 18 guys who had enough merit to either get in the HOF or stay on the ballot long enough despite PEDs. Wright's debut had 8-11 such guys. That is a lot more room to throw a vote to a player like Wright.
In terms of votes, Santana competed with 18 guys who had enough merit to either get in the HOF or stay on the ballot long enough despite PEDs. Wright's debut had 8-11 such guys. That is a lot more room to throw a vote to a player like Wright.
December 8, 2025 at 4:30 PM
In terms of head-to-head merit, yes.
In terms of votes, Santana competed with 18 guys who had enough merit to either get in the HOF or stay on the ballot long enough despite PEDs. Wright's debut had 8-11 such guys. That is a lot more room to throw a vote to a player like Wright.
In terms of votes, Santana competed with 18 guys who had enough merit to either get in the HOF or stay on the ballot long enough despite PEDs. Wright's debut had 8-11 such guys. That is a lot more room to throw a vote to a player like Wright.
Don't forget the 3-3 on first time voters!
December 8, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Don't forget the 3-3 on first time voters!
Disagree with the Braun vote, but David is one of the 2nd year voters who did not have room for guys like Felix and Buehrle in his first year where both need big gains to eventually get 75%.
If your case cannot convince most of the big hall voters to make room, induction is unlikely.
If your case cannot convince most of the big hall voters to make room, induction is unlikely.
December 8, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Disagree with the Braun vote, but David is one of the 2nd year voters who did not have room for guys like Felix and Buehrle in his first year where both need big gains to eventually get 75%.
If your case cannot convince most of the big hall voters to make room, induction is unlikely.
If your case cannot convince most of the big hall voters to make room, induction is unlikely.
I'd say competition is a bigger factor than likeability for Johan. Andruw started the same year and barely stayed on the ballot with 11 HOFers and 6 PED guys + Vizquel all competing for votes as well.
That ballot will be HOFers + players who didnt/wont get in bc of PED or other controversy.
That ballot will be HOFers + players who didnt/wont get in bc of PED or other controversy.
December 8, 2025 at 4:14 PM
I'd say competition is a bigger factor than likeability for Johan. Andruw started the same year and barely stayed on the ballot with 11 HOFers and 6 PED guys + Vizquel all competing for votes as well.
That ballot will be HOFers + players who didnt/wont get in bc of PED or other controversy.
That ballot will be HOFers + players who didnt/wont get in bc of PED or other controversy.
This reminded me of what I wanted to look at: who the 20 new voters voted for last year:
Beltran 18x
Pettite & Utley 13x
Jones 12x
A-Rod 11x
Manny 10x
Abreu 6x
Felix 4x
Buehrle 3x
Rollins & Wright 2x
Pedroia & Vizquel & K-Rod 1x
9 had 10 vote ballots and all with 6x or fewer wil likely gain.
Beltran 18x
Pettite & Utley 13x
Jones 12x
A-Rod 11x
Manny 10x
Abreu 6x
Felix 4x
Buehrle 3x
Rollins & Wright 2x
Pedroia & Vizquel & K-Rod 1x
9 had 10 vote ballots and all with 6x or fewer wil likely gain.
December 8, 2025 at 4:09 PM
This reminded me of what I wanted to look at: who the 20 new voters voted for last year:
Beltran 18x
Pettite & Utley 13x
Jones 12x
A-Rod 11x
Manny 10x
Abreu 6x
Felix 4x
Buehrle 3x
Rollins & Wright 2x
Pedroia & Vizquel & K-Rod 1x
9 had 10 vote ballots and all with 6x or fewer wil likely gain.
Beltran 18x
Pettite & Utley 13x
Jones 12x
A-Rod 11x
Manny 10x
Abreu 6x
Felix 4x
Buehrle 3x
Rollins & Wright 2x
Pedroia & Vizquel & K-Rod 1x
9 had 10 vote ballots and all with 6x or fewer wil likely gain.
Exactly the 10 players I'd vote for personally.
I would assume K-Rod and Rollins are the two additional votes if not for the limit.
I would assume K-Rod and Rollins are the two additional votes if not for the limit.
December 8, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Exactly the 10 players I'd vote for personally.
I would assume K-Rod and Rollins are the two additional votes if not for the limit.
I would assume K-Rod and Rollins are the two additional votes if not for the limit.
Seems like Manny is a victim of the starting pitcher shift, which seems to have been done all at once to make a statement, as he could have used his spare vote in '25 on one of the three holdovers.
Also, as you said, it will not really matter for his induction.
Also, as you said, it will not really matter for his induction.
December 7, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Seems like Manny is a victim of the starting pitcher shift, which seems to have been done all at once to make a statement, as he could have used his spare vote in '25 on one of the three holdovers.
Also, as you said, it will not really matter for his induction.
Also, as you said, it will not really matter for his induction.
There is the first domino in the starting pitcher shift.
Felix, Hamels and Buehrle are 8th, 11th and 12th in fWAR since 2000. If not them, then who will be an HOF pitcher after Verlander and company retire?
Felix, Hamels and Buehrle are 8th, 11th and 12th in fWAR since 2000. If not them, then who will be an HOF pitcher after Verlander and company retire?
December 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
There is the first domino in the starting pitcher shift.
Felix, Hamels and Buehrle are 8th, 11th and 12th in fWAR since 2000. If not them, then who will be an HOF pitcher after Verlander and company retire?
Felix, Hamels and Buehrle are 8th, 11th and 12th in fWAR since 2000. If not them, then who will be an HOF pitcher after Verlander and company retire?
Braun and Vizquel over all four Phillies is a choice.
December 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Braun and Vizquel over all four Phillies is a choice.
He voted Ichiro, Vizquel, Wagner in '25, Mauer, Beltran, Beltre, Helton in '24 and Abreu was one of his 4 back in '23.
This does make it seem like he has an arbitrary max of 3-4 the last few years with a lot of drops and adds throughout the years.
This does make it seem like he has an arbitrary max of 3-4 the last few years with a lot of drops and adds throughout the years.
December 7, 2025 at 1:21 AM
He voted Ichiro, Vizquel, Wagner in '25, Mauer, Beltran, Beltre, Helton in '24 and Abreu was one of his 4 back in '23.
This does make it seem like he has an arbitrary max of 3-4 the last few years with a lot of drops and adds throughout the years.
This does make it seem like he has an arbitrary max of 3-4 the last few years with a lot of drops and adds throughout the years.
There are only 3-5 eventual HoFers on this ballot with a much weaker PED trio as well vs those late 2010s ballots.
December 3, 2025 at 11:52 PM
There are only 3-5 eventual HoFers on this ballot with a much weaker PED trio as well vs those late 2010s ballots.
100%, 55% 4 yrs is a monumental task. Larry Walker managed to do it 3, but he was on stacked ballots where 10-vote ballots were double that of 2025 until his election yr.
There were TEN other HoFers on that 2017 ballot (also Bonds, Clemens, Schilling) and SEVEN more joined the ballot in those 3 yrs
There were TEN other HoFers on that 2017 ballot (also Bonds, Clemens, Schilling) and SEVEN more joined the ballot in those 3 yrs
December 3, 2025 at 11:52 PM
100%, 55% 4 yrs is a monumental task. Larry Walker managed to do it 3, but he was on stacked ballots where 10-vote ballots were double that of 2025 until his election yr.
There were TEN other HoFers on that 2017 ballot (also Bonds, Clemens, Schilling) and SEVEN more joined the ballot in those 3 yrs
There were TEN other HoFers on that 2017 ballot (also Bonds, Clemens, Schilling) and SEVEN more joined the ballot in those 3 yrs
Yeah, not getting on 10-vote ballots with these options is not a great sign for his chances.
15 holdovers, of which 5 were only on 12% or fewer ballots last year and the next few years will bring the competition back up a bit as well.
15 holdovers, of which 5 were only on 12% or fewer ballots last year and the next few years will bring the competition back up a bit as well.
December 3, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Yeah, not getting on 10-vote ballots with these options is not a great sign for his chances.
15 holdovers, of which 5 were only on 12% or fewer ballots last year and the next few years will bring the competition back up a bit as well.
15 holdovers, of which 5 were only on 12% or fewer ballots last year and the next few years will bring the competition back up a bit as well.
And the guy who profited most as commissioner got in easily as well
November 3, 2025 at 5:17 PM
And the guy who profited most as commissioner got in easily as well
If we all try our best, it might be a circle too!
June 25, 2025 at 6:29 AM
If we all try our best, it might be a circle too!