Raymond Hicks
@arpie71.bsky.social
Researcher at History Lab @Columbia. IPE scholar, data scientist
Also thrilled to see @petercontibrown.bsky.social excellent work mentiond.
September 25, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Also thrilled to see @petercontibrown.bsky.social excellent work mentiond.
The final possibility is a multilateral version of the above. This would just be the WTO. Whichever of these occurs, we can be sure that victory will be claimed.
April 10, 2025 at 5:42 PM
The final possibility is a multilateral version of the above. This would just be the WTO. Whichever of these occurs, we can be sure that victory will be claimed.
A second possibility is a return to RTAA-type bilateral negotiation governed by something like the principal supplier rule. A country who supplies the most of a product to the US can negotiate for a lower rate but all countries will get the lower rate.
April 10, 2025 at 5:42 PM
A second possibility is a return to RTAA-type bilateral negotiation governed by something like the principal supplier rule. A country who supplies the most of a product to the US can negotiate for a lower rate but all countries will get the lower rate.
The first, and most problematic, is bilateral negotiations that differentially reduce tariff rates. As @kevinhorourke.bsky.social has been worried about, this destroys nondiscrimination.
April 10, 2025 at 5:42 PM
The first, and most problematic, is bilateral negotiations that differentially reduce tariff rates. As @kevinhorourke.bsky.social has been worried about, this destroys nondiscrimination.
This means that firms affected will lobby for a return to a higher rate with all the same potential issues as with lobbying for lower rates. The final step is unclear. I can think of 3 possibilities.
April 10, 2025 at 5:42 PM
This means that firms affected will lobby for a return to a higher rate with all the same potential issues as with lobbying for lower rates. The final step is unclear. I can think of 3 possibilities.
This is a amplified continuation of that with firms "lobbying" for lower rates on existing lines.
The second step will be from the opposite direction. If a universal 10% tariff is applied, some products will see a reduction in tariffs.
The second step will be from the opposite direction. If a universal 10% tariff is applied, some products will see a reduction in tariffs.
April 10, 2025 at 5:42 PM
This is a amplified continuation of that with firms "lobbying" for lower rates on existing lines.
The second step will be from the opposite direction. If a universal 10% tariff is applied, some products will see a reduction in tariffs.
The second step will be from the opposite direction. If a universal 10% tariff is applied, some products will see a reduction in tariffs.
We are now seeing the first step: bsky.app/profile/pwna.... In Song Kim and Helen Milner argue that some domestic firms will lobby for lower tariffs. US government carves out new tariff lines with a reduced rate to help while old line rate is kept higher to protect other firms.
April 10, 2025 at 5:42 PM
We are now seeing the first step: bsky.app/profile/pwna.... In Song Kim and Helen Milner argue that some domestic firms will lobby for lower tariffs. US government carves out new tariff lines with a reduced rate to help while old line rate is kept higher to protect other firms.
For the WTO to survive, countries need to respond _within_ its framework. Ideally, the Contracting Parties would meet and vote to suspend all concessions to the US. They could also vote to add an amendment nullifying non-discrimination in the event that one party violates it unilaterally.
April 4, 2025 at 11:15 AM
For the WTO to survive, countries need to respond _within_ its framework. Ideally, the Contracting Parties would meet and vote to suspend all concessions to the US. They could also vote to add an amendment nullifying non-discrimination in the event that one party violates it unilaterally.
Article XXIII (nullification) was not sufficient. Instead, the US sought remedy under Article XXV (Joint Action). Czechoslovakia agreed and the Contracting Parties ruled that both countries were free from obligations to the other.
April 3, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Article XXIII (nullification) was not sufficient. Instead, the US sought remedy under Article XXV (Joint Action). Czechoslovakia agreed and the Contracting Parties ruled that both countries were free from obligations to the other.
It is uncharted territory. Even before the GATT/WTO the RTAs and Treaties of Commerce guaranteed non-discrimination. I don't think any trade agreement has provisions for violations such as this. How the world and WTO respond becomes vitally important for the future of the global trade regime.
April 3, 2025 at 11:49 AM
It is uncharted territory. Even before the GATT/WTO the RTAs and Treaties of Commerce guaranteed non-discrimination. I don't think any trade agreement has provisions for violations such as this. How the world and WTO respond becomes vitally important for the future of the global trade regime.