Arnout van de Rijt
@arnoutvanderijt.bsky.social
Professor of Sociology at the European University Institute, Editor-in-Chief of Sociological Science. Embracing freedom, openmindedness, compassion, forgiveness, fairness, justice, and humanity, as fascism is knocking on the door.
A 3-party coalition would become a possibility.
Simplifying assumption: All 23% voters for small parties vote randomly for one of the 6 big parties
GL / PvdA: 15 + 23/6 = 19%
D66: 13.5 + 23/6 = 17%
CDA: 13 + 23/6 = 17%
---------------------
Coalition size = 53% > 50%
Simplifying assumption: All 23% voters for small parties vote randomly for one of the 6 big parties
GL / PvdA: 15 + 23/6 = 19%
D66: 13.5 + 23/6 = 17%
CDA: 13 + 23/6 = 17%
---------------------
Coalition size = 53% > 50%
October 27, 2025 at 10:34 AM
A 3-party coalition would become a possibility.
Simplifying assumption: All 23% voters for small parties vote randomly for one of the 6 big parties
GL / PvdA: 15 + 23/6 = 19%
D66: 13.5 + 23/6 = 17%
CDA: 13 + 23/6 = 17%
---------------------
Coalition size = 53% > 50%
Simplifying assumption: All 23% voters for small parties vote randomly for one of the 6 big parties
GL / PvdA: 15 + 23/6 = 19%
D66: 13.5 + 23/6 = 17%
CDA: 13 + 23/6 = 17%
---------------------
Coalition size = 53% > 50%
A true honor. Thanks Wojtek Przepiorka for leading this and @sergioloiacono.bsky.social for traveling to all these replication sites!
October 9, 2025 at 11:55 AM
A true honor. Thanks Wojtek Przepiorka for leading this and @sergioloiacono.bsky.social for traveling to all these replication sites!
More humor on Bluesky please!
October 9, 2025 at 7:30 AM
More humor on Bluesky please!
Green smells, children running, old men smiling. Suddenly a band starts playing, giving me the chills. Paradise on a Saturday afternoon in Florence.
September 6, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Green smells, children running, old men smiling. Suddenly a band starts playing, giving me the chills. Paradise on a Saturday afternoon in Florence.
Stata forever!
July 8, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Stata forever!
Where's Wally?
No, that's me proudly celebrating four great PhD students flying out!
@awaldendorf.bsky.social @jonadejong.bsky.social Pedro Martin and Anna Clemente @eui-eu.bsky.social @eui-sps.bsky.social
No, that's me proudly celebrating four great PhD students flying out!
@awaldendorf.bsky.social @jonadejong.bsky.social Pedro Martin and Anna Clemente @eui-eu.bsky.social @eui-sps.bsky.social
July 2, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Where's Wally?
No, that's me proudly celebrating four great PhD students flying out!
@awaldendorf.bsky.social @jonadejong.bsky.social Pedro Martin and Anna Clemente @eui-eu.bsky.social @eui-sps.bsky.social
No, that's me proudly celebrating four great PhD students flying out!
@awaldendorf.bsky.social @jonadejong.bsky.social Pedro Martin and Anna Clemente @eui-eu.bsky.social @eui-sps.bsky.social
Did Model 1 or Model 2 generate these sequences? Why?
Model 1: Pólya urn, starting with one black and one red ball. 1 (0) stands for black (red).
Model 2: Empty probit model, random intercepts with mean 0, ICC = 1/2.
All 100,000 sequences here: tinyurl.com/35pkyfxa
Model 1: Pólya urn, starting with one black and one red ball. 1 (0) stands for black (red).
Model 2: Empty probit model, random intercepts with mean 0, ICC = 1/2.
All 100,000 sequences here: tinyurl.com/35pkyfxa
June 10, 2025 at 9:51 AM
Did Model 1 or Model 2 generate these sequences? Why?
Model 1: Pólya urn, starting with one black and one red ball. 1 (0) stands for black (red).
Model 2: Empty probit model, random intercepts with mean 0, ICC = 1/2.
All 100,000 sequences here: tinyurl.com/35pkyfxa
Model 1: Pólya urn, starting with one black and one red ball. 1 (0) stands for black (red).
Model 2: Empty probit model, random intercepts with mean 0, ICC = 1/2.
All 100,000 sequences here: tinyurl.com/35pkyfxa
In the "peeing is contagious" study it is not clear to me how they avoid confounding by toilet effects (spatial heterogeneity).
www.cell.com/current-biol...
www.cell.com/current-biol...
January 21, 2025 at 8:45 AM
In the "peeing is contagious" study it is not clear to me how they avoid confounding by toilet effects (spatial heterogeneity).
www.cell.com/current-biol...
www.cell.com/current-biol...
Brextinction?
Old leavers die as new remainers are born.
By our own:
@fresejoris.bsky.social
@juhoharkonen.bsky.social
@simonhix.bsky.social
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Old leavers die as new remainers are born.
By our own:
@fresejoris.bsky.social
@juhoharkonen.bsky.social
@simonhix.bsky.social
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
December 2, 2024 at 9:03 PM
Brextinction?
Old leavers die as new remainers are born.
By our own:
@fresejoris.bsky.social
@juhoharkonen.bsky.social
@simonhix.bsky.social
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Old leavers die as new remainers are born.
By our own:
@fresejoris.bsky.social
@juhoharkonen.bsky.social
@simonhix.bsky.social
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
We hate rankings except when they are favorable...so today I am extremely happy that EUI Political Science ranks 6th in the world!
November 13, 2024 at 4:25 PM
We hate rankings except when they are favorable...so today I am extremely happy that EUI Political Science ranks 6th in the world!
Very cool, Kim!
October 27, 2024 at 6:00 PM
Very cool, Kim!
Sociology is behind on ** reproducibility ** but we can get together to catch up!
Join our 3 sessions at the ECSR conference in Barcelona (ecsr2024.com) on what journals can do.
At @sociologicalsci.bsky.social , we require data & code or a good reason.
Join our 3 sessions at the ECSR conference in Barcelona (ecsr2024.com) on what journals can do.
At @sociologicalsci.bsky.social , we require data & code or a good reason.
September 3, 2024 at 2:50 PM
Sociology is behind on ** reproducibility ** but we can get together to catch up!
Join our 3 sessions at the ECSR conference in Barcelona (ecsr2024.com) on what journals can do.
At @sociologicalsci.bsky.social , we require data & code or a good reason.
Join our 3 sessions at the ECSR conference in Barcelona (ecsr2024.com) on what journals can do.
At @sociologicalsci.bsky.social , we require data & code or a good reason.
Nature and nurture
In a sociologist's garden
In a sociologist's garden
March 16, 2024 at 3:46 PM
Nature and nurture
In a sociologist's garden
In a sociologist's garden
Remembered this study on Luck and Success.
Being scheduled to perform late in a competition improves your chances of winning it.
Has this been replicated for academic job talks?
www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3...
Being scheduled to perform late in a competition improves your chances of winning it.
Has this been replicated for academic job talks?
www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3...
December 21, 2023 at 6:41 PM
Remembered this study on Luck and Success.
Being scheduled to perform late in a competition improves your chances of winning it.
Has this been replicated for academic job talks?
www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3...
Being scheduled to perform late in a competition improves your chances of winning it.
Has this been replicated for academic job talks?
www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3...
Good news for december babies:
Your birth month income disadvantage turns into an advantage in your 40s.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Your birth month income disadvantage turns into an advantage in your 40s.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
December 21, 2023 at 4:56 PM
Good news for december babies:
Your birth month income disadvantage turns into an advantage in your 40s.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Your birth month income disadvantage turns into an advantage in your 40s.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Had never seen this cool paper before. In their experiment, subjects refuse to get locked in on an inferior technology, they overcome the coordination problem, and move to Bluesky.
Also, title is good, though doesn't compete with Kieran Healy's F-word title.
www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2...
Also, title is good, though doesn't compete with Kieran Healy's F-word title.
www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2...
December 21, 2023 at 4:33 PM
Had never seen this cool paper before. In their experiment, subjects refuse to get locked in on an inferior technology, they overcome the coordination problem, and move to Bluesky.
Also, title is good, though doesn't compete with Kieran Healy's F-word title.
www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2...
Also, title is good, though doesn't compete with Kieran Healy's F-word title.
www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2...