So, rather than probing weakness and causing any mistakes, Putin forced NATO into a stronger, more unified posture. A costly error overall.

The ROE tightened against Russia, leading to a SACEUR advantage. Exposed an immediate cost imbalance against NATO relevant actors, but long term against Russia since this incident will likely justify sustained budget and posture.

My thought is that this wasn’t just symbolism. The incursion shut Polish airports, threatened Rzeszów (NATO’s Ukraine lifeline), and led directly to Operation Eastern Sentry—new allied jets, radars, and air defenses on the eastern flank. Poland also took it to the UNSC, building broader legitimacy.

Really solid piece on Poland’s Article 4 move after the Russian drone incursion. Paul is right: Warsaw used the consultation clause as a kind of “Article 5 lite,” showing how NATO’s political machinery works before anyone talks about collective defense. Smart framing.

Worst one isn't on the list:

Your beliefs.

Some of this is known as belief perseverance. Beliefs are basically undefeatable. Other cognitive aspects help explain more, esp. how to weaponize it. Combined with how Chris Hayes masterfully explains the power of treating and capturing attention as the essential human commodity, things get clearer

Thank you Thomas. My co-authors are the reason this came together nicely, esp. Les. He's an absolute legend. Every commander's office that I've been in always has his books on their shelves.