Original linkedIn post and more details: tinyurl.com/3axpsdrc

3/3 So what’s the path forward? Aggressive cost reduction.

States like #Colorado & OEMs like #Hyundai and #GM are showing the way with new incentives and lower-priced models. Automakers must simplify to reach the mainstream. It's a survival strategy.

#EVadoption #Omdia

2/3 What's driving the risk? Overwhelmingly the abrupt repeal of the IRA, with a +0.98 correlation to the total score.
This is colliding with a strained consumer reality: a shrinking middle class burdened by debt. High-priced EVs are running out of track.

#Economics #Automotive

original post: bsky.app/profile/arag...

Ms. Shen was very clear that she did not think this was a possibility anytime soon nor was it President Xi Jinping's preference to invade Taiwan. And my point isn't to suggest that now it is but rather to highlight the idea of unintended consequences.
#politicalRisk #nobodywinsatradewar

That goes back to conversation I had with @eurasiagroup.net's China and NE Asia Analyst Ava Ao Shen where we discussed some of the possible lessons the CCP might take away from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. One was if the CCP were to invade Taiwan, it would first insulate its economy from sanctions.

But what I missed was the equal and opposite reaction from the PRC-now Newton's third law of motion and trade. What I mean is the trade friction with the U.S. is also accelerating the PRC's efforts to shift away from over relying on trade with the U.S. Thereby insulating itself from economic shocks.

dependence on suppliers based in China. But I was focused on how export controls on REE to the U.S. pushes importers to more rapidly reduce their dependence on suppliers based in China and this, in the long run, is bad for China. #trade #tarrifs #China #USA #electricvehicles #electricmotors #ree