Anthonie Meijer
@anthoniemeijer.bsky.social
Writing on AI & investing | VC investor | Ex-strategy consultant
https://anthoniemeijer.substack.com/
https://anthoniemeijer.substack.com/
Opportunity cost is the silent portfolio killer
Crowded trades underperform. Unloved assets mean-revert. Staying out guarantees a 0% return.
Reduce opportunity cost. Size the positions.
Some examples:
Crowded trades underperform. Unloved assets mean-revert. Staying out guarantees a 0% return.
Reduce opportunity cost. Size the positions.
Some examples:
January 30, 2026 at 4:57 PM
Opportunity cost is the silent portfolio killer
Crowded trades underperform. Unloved assets mean-revert. Staying out guarantees a 0% return.
Reduce opportunity cost. Size the positions.
Some examples:
Crowded trades underperform. Unloved assets mean-revert. Staying out guarantees a 0% return.
Reduce opportunity cost. Size the positions.
Some examples:
Hyperscaler AI capex is projected to hit $4.8 trillion by 2030.
To justify that investment at a 10% hurdle rate, AI revenue needs to reach $1T annually.
That's 1% of global GDP (ex-China).
The bet is massive. So are the stakes.
To justify that investment at a 10% hurdle rate, AI revenue needs to reach $1T annually.
That's 1% of global GDP (ex-China).
The bet is massive. So are the stakes.
January 28, 2026 at 7:02 PM
Hyperscaler AI capex is projected to hit $4.8 trillion by 2030.
To justify that investment at a 10% hurdle rate, AI revenue needs to reach $1T annually.
That's 1% of global GDP (ex-China).
The bet is massive. So are the stakes.
To justify that investment at a 10% hurdle rate, AI revenue needs to reach $1T annually.
That's 1% of global GDP (ex-China).
The bet is massive. So are the stakes.
The private AI market in three layers:
- Infrastructure: $15.2B (Databricks, Replit)
- Foundation Models: $11.5B (OpenAI, xAI)
- Applications: $13.9B (Cursor, Harvey)
Combined: ~$40B in annual revenue.
- Infrastructure: $15.2B (Databricks, Replit)
- Foundation Models: $11.5B (OpenAI, xAI)
- Applications: $13.9B (Cursor, Harvey)
Combined: ~$40B in annual revenue.
January 26, 2026 at 5:03 PM
The private AI market in three layers:
- Infrastructure: $15.2B (Databricks, Replit)
- Foundation Models: $11.5B (OpenAI, xAI)
- Applications: $13.9B (Cursor, Harvey)
Combined: ~$40B in annual revenue.
- Infrastructure: $15.2B (Databricks, Replit)
- Foundation Models: $11.5B (OpenAI, xAI)
- Applications: $13.9B (Cursor, Harvey)
Combined: ~$40B in annual revenue.
AI companies grew revenue 106% YoY in 2025.
Non-AI companies? 39%.
Top decile AI companies hit 693% growth.
Cursor, ElevenLabs, and Deel are reaching $100M ARR faster than Slack or Shopify ever did.
The gap is widening.
Non-AI companies? 39%.
Top decile AI companies hit 693% growth.
Cursor, ElevenLabs, and Deel are reaching $100M ARR faster than Slack or Shopify ever did.
The gap is widening.
January 25, 2026 at 3:15 PM
AI companies grew revenue 106% YoY in 2025.
Non-AI companies? 39%.
Top decile AI companies hit 693% growth.
Cursor, ElevenLabs, and Deel are reaching $100M ARR faster than Slack or Shopify ever did.
The gap is widening.
Non-AI companies? 39%.
Top decile AI companies hit 693% growth.
Cursor, ElevenLabs, and Deel are reaching $100M ARR faster than Slack or Shopify ever did.
The gap is widening.
Pets and their food aren't getting disrupted by AI anytime soon. Two solid days in a row, even when the rest of the market bled red yesterday.
January 21, 2026 at 9:05 PM
Pets and their food aren't getting disrupted by AI anytime soon. Two solid days in a row, even when the rest of the market bled red yesterday.
Fluence Energy is up 15% today (mentioned in the last newsletter)
January 15, 2026 at 7:22 PM
Fluence Energy is up 15% today (mentioned in the last newsletter)
75 years of stock market data, one lesson:
- Any single year: -37% to +52%
- Over 20-year periods: +6% to +18%
- Not a single negative 20-year outcome. Ever.
- $100k → $908k at 11.7% avg annual returns.
Time in the market > timing the market.
Source: JP Morgan
- Any single year: -37% to +52%
- Over 20-year periods: +6% to +18%
- Not a single negative 20-year outcome. Ever.
- $100k → $908k at 11.7% avg annual returns.
Time in the market > timing the market.
Source: JP Morgan
January 10, 2026 at 1:25 PM
75 years of stock market data, one lesson:
- Any single year: -37% to +52%
- Over 20-year periods: +6% to +18%
- Not a single negative 20-year outcome. Ever.
- $100k → $908k at 11.7% avg annual returns.
Time in the market > timing the market.
Source: JP Morgan
- Any single year: -37% to +52%
- Over 20-year periods: +6% to +18%
- Not a single negative 20-year outcome. Ever.
- $100k → $908k at 11.7% avg annual returns.
Time in the market > timing the market.
Source: JP Morgan
Nike. Novo Nordisk. Charter. Fiserv.
All multi-baggers. All now 40-70% off highs.
The hard part isn't finding compounders — it's knowing when they've stopped.
All multi-baggers. All now 40-70% off highs.
The hard part isn't finding compounders — it's knowing when they've stopped.
January 6, 2026 at 5:18 PM
Nike. Novo Nordisk. Charter. Fiserv.
All multi-baggers. All now 40-70% off highs.
The hard part isn't finding compounders — it's knowing when they've stopped.
All multi-baggers. All now 40-70% off highs.
The hard part isn't finding compounders — it's knowing when they've stopped.
I beat the S&P 500 for 3 years straight.
2025: +32.4% (vs S&P ~16%)
Not luck. Not leverage. Just discipline and a few principles I've learned the hard way.
Here's what actually worked 🧵
2025: +32.4% (vs S&P ~16%)
Not luck. Not leverage. Just discipline and a few principles I've learned the hard way.
Here's what actually worked 🧵
January 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM
I beat the S&P 500 for 3 years straight.
2025: +32.4% (vs S&P ~16%)
Not luck. Not leverage. Just discipline and a few principles I've learned the hard way.
Here's what actually worked 🧵
2025: +32.4% (vs S&P ~16%)
Not luck. Not leverage. Just discipline and a few principles I've learned the hard way.
Here's what actually worked 🧵
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are closely following the S&P 500. Since the S&P 500’s drawdown in February, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 surged from around 0.21 in 25 February to approximately 0.88 in March 21
April 18, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are closely following the S&P 500. Since the S&P 500’s drawdown in February, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 surged from around 0.21 in 25 February to approximately 0.88 in March 21
I will put this here
March 14, 2025 at 7:54 AM
I will put this here
Just 17% of coins are beating Bitcoin right now. Even after November's rally, we're nowhere near peak FOMO (when 70%+ of alts outperform BTC).
It's getting harder to find the next winning alt.
More coins = more competition for limited attention and capital.
#Crypto
It's getting harder to find the next winning alt.
More coins = more competition for limited attention and capital.
#Crypto
February 1, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Just 17% of coins are beating Bitcoin right now. Even after November's rally, we're nowhere near peak FOMO (when 70%+ of alts outperform BTC).
It's getting harder to find the next winning alt.
More coins = more competition for limited attention and capital.
#Crypto
It's getting harder to find the next winning alt.
More coins = more competition for limited attention and capital.
#Crypto
DeepSeek will have a positive effect on AI crypto projects in the long-term.
Here’s 5 reasons why (1/2):
- Proves you don't need Big Tech money to compete
- Open-source = faster innovation for crypto projects
- Could shift investor $$ from US tech giants to decentralized players
Here’s 5 reasons why (1/2):
- Proves you don't need Big Tech money to compete
- Open-source = faster innovation for crypto projects
- Could shift investor $$ from US tech giants to decentralized players
January 27, 2025 at 12:38 PM
DeepSeek will have a positive effect on AI crypto projects in the long-term.
Here’s 5 reasons why (1/2):
- Proves you don't need Big Tech money to compete
- Open-source = faster innovation for crypto projects
- Could shift investor $$ from US tech giants to decentralized players
Here’s 5 reasons why (1/2):
- Proves you don't need Big Tech money to compete
- Open-source = faster innovation for crypto projects
- Could shift investor $$ from US tech giants to decentralized players
Too many tokens chasing too few buyers.
Simple supply and demand
Right now, only three plays are showing real heat:
- Bitcoin (the OG)
- Quick-flip memecoins (high risk, high reward)
- AI Agent tokens (riding the AI wave)
Simple supply and demand
Right now, only three plays are showing real heat:
- Bitcoin (the OG)
- Quick-flip memecoins (high risk, high reward)
- AI Agent tokens (riding the AI wave)
January 27, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Too many tokens chasing too few buyers.
Simple supply and demand
Right now, only three plays are showing real heat:
- Bitcoin (the OG)
- Quick-flip memecoins (high risk, high reward)
- AI Agent tokens (riding the AI wave)
Simple supply and demand
Right now, only three plays are showing real heat:
- Bitcoin (the OG)
- Quick-flip memecoins (high risk, high reward)
- AI Agent tokens (riding the AI wave)
Even as the crypto market matures, we're seeing yet another memecoin launch - this time #Trump.
These constant memecoin launches make me question if we can evolve from speculative mania to a respected asset class and realize blockchain's true potential.
These constant memecoin launches make me question if we can evolve from speculative mania to a respected asset class and realize blockchain's true potential.
January 18, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Even as the crypto market matures, we're seeing yet another memecoin launch - this time #Trump.
These constant memecoin launches make me question if we can evolve from speculative mania to a respected asset class and realize blockchain's true potential.
These constant memecoin launches make me question if we can evolve from speculative mania to a respected asset class and realize blockchain's true potential.
But here's where it gets really interesting:
When we compare these Layer 1 protocols to Bitcoin, the picture changes dramatically.
The median performance of the selected Layer 1 protocols compared to Bitcoin is around minus 43%.
When we compare these Layer 1 protocols to Bitcoin, the picture changes dramatically.
The median performance of the selected Layer 1 protocols compared to Bitcoin is around minus 43%.
January 6, 2025 at 4:55 PM
But here's where it gets really interesting:
When we compare these Layer 1 protocols to Bitcoin, the picture changes dramatically.
The median performance of the selected Layer 1 protocols compared to Bitcoin is around minus 43%.
When we compare these Layer 1 protocols to Bitcoin, the picture changes dramatically.
The median performance of the selected Layer 1 protocols compared to Bitcoin is around minus 43%.
When looking at the relative performance of the selected Layer 1 protocols in the last year (2024) we see that:
- The Median Performance is c. 52%
- SUI, Ton, and TRX are leading the pack last year.
- Whereas, ATOM, DOT, APT, and AVAX underperformed relatively to their peers
- The Median Performance is c. 52%
- SUI, Ton, and TRX are leading the pack last year.
- Whereas, ATOM, DOT, APT, and AVAX underperformed relatively to their peers
January 6, 2025 at 4:55 PM
When looking at the relative performance of the selected Layer 1 protocols in the last year (2024) we see that:
- The Median Performance is c. 52%
- SUI, Ton, and TRX are leading the pack last year.
- Whereas, ATOM, DOT, APT, and AVAX underperformed relatively to their peers
- The Median Performance is c. 52%
- SUI, Ton, and TRX are leading the pack last year.
- Whereas, ATOM, DOT, APT, and AVAX underperformed relatively to their peers