Andrew Little
@anthlittle.bsky.social
Prof at UC Berkeley. Formal theory, political beliefs, democracy.
Associate Editor at @ajpseditor.bsky.social
https://anthlittle.github.io/
Associate Editor at @ajpseditor.bsky.social
https://anthlittle.github.io/
May I tap this sign 😉
September 30, 2025 at 4:08 AM
May I tap this sign 😉
The observational data: the Survey of Professional Forecasters lets us test some other predictions from the theory. As predicted, “excess” MSE above what variance alone would imply equals twice the disagreement in individual forecasts. (Honestly we were shocked at how well the data fits the theory!)
August 22, 2025 at 6:58 PM
The observational data: the Survey of Professional Forecasters lets us test some other predictions from the theory. As predicted, “excess” MSE above what variance alone would imply equals twice the disagreement in individual forecasts. (Honestly we were shocked at how well the data fits the theory!)
Here is a graphical version of the key result. Participants are unresponsive to changes in across-model uncertainty (left & middle panels), but reasonably responsive to within-model uncertainty (right panel).
August 22, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Here is a graphical version of the key result. Participants are unresponsive to changes in across-model uncertainty (left & middle panels), but reasonably responsive to within-model uncertainty (right panel).
The experiment: participants predict future “sales” data generated by a linear trend plus noise, and report their uncertainty. Sometimes they see the trendline (so only within-model uncertainty matters). Sometimes they don’t (introducing across-model uncertainty).
August 22, 2025 at 6:54 PM
The experiment: participants predict future “sales” data generated by a linear trend plus noise, and report their uncertainty. Sometimes they see the trendline (so only within-model uncertainty matters). Sometimes they don’t (introducing across-model uncertainty).
Very happy to share this paper: Like it says on the tin, we study how simplifying assumptions drive overprecision (excessive certainty) and disagreement (divergence in beliefs), using theory, an experiment, and observational data.
Draft here: osf.io/preprints/os...
Quick thread below.
Draft here: osf.io/preprints/os...
Quick thread below.
August 22, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Very happy to share this paper: Like it says on the tin, we study how simplifying assumptions drive overprecision (excessive certainty) and disagreement (divergence in beliefs), using theory, an experiment, and observational data.
Draft here: osf.io/preprints/os...
Quick thread below.
Draft here: osf.io/preprints/os...
Quick thread below.
At least in terms of making good predictions there is a clear answer and it is not the one most give to Scott’s survey
April 24, 2025 at 1:54 AM
At least in terms of making good predictions there is a clear answer and it is not the one most give to Scott’s survey
April 22, 2025 at 2:13 AM
I think if your entire organization is resisting your leadership you are not doing a great job of leading? www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
April 21, 2025 at 11:32 PM
I think if your entire organization is resisting your leadership you are not doing a great job of leading? www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
He also wrote this sentence
April 21, 2025 at 1:34 AM
He also wrote this sentence
Very plausible but I’m not sure I’d 100% trust this guy
April 21, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Very plausible but I’m not sure I’d 100% trust this guy
Great piece, which highlights why I think excessive pessimism about the state of our democracy can be counterproductive
April 18, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Great piece, which highlights why I think excessive pessimism about the state of our democracy can be counterproductive
Important point. E.g., according to a recent paper by @dbroockman.bsky.social and @jkalla.bsky.social only 20% of the population watches even 15 mins of Fox/month. Only ~5% watches 16hr/mo. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
April 4, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Important point. E.g., according to a recent paper by @dbroockman.bsky.social and @jkalla.bsky.social only 20% of the population watches even 15 mins of Fox/month. Only ~5% watches 16hr/mo. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Don’t envy the job of university presidents but this strikes me as the right response
April 2, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Don’t envy the job of university presidents but this strikes me as the right response
People may hate on AI here but sometimes it has good ideas
April 2, 2025 at 3:40 AM
People may hate on AI here but sometimes it has good ideas
Ask and ye shall receive
April 2, 2025 at 3:39 AM
Ask and ye shall receive
Side effect of the leak is we now know why Andrew Baker disappeared from social media
March 26, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Side effect of the leak is we now know why Andrew Baker disappeared from social media
One point of agreement is universities should also be unafraid to fight back against things like funding cuts and endowment taxes
March 11, 2025 at 5:14 PM
One point of agreement is universities should also be unafraid to fight back against things like funding cuts and endowment taxes
A decent rule of thumb: if you are more confident in your assessment of what is going on than Adam, you are probably overconfident
February 20, 2025 at 3:29 AM
A decent rule of thumb: if you are more confident in your assessment of what is going on than Adam, you are probably overconfident
I can think of someone who is a leading expert on the intersection of democratic institutions and autocracy, has written about measuring democracy, and is the chair of a related APSA section...
February 13, 2025 at 12:40 AM
I can think of someone who is a leading expert on the intersection of democratic institutions and autocracy, has written about measuring democracy, and is the chair of a related APSA section...
February 11, 2025 at 8:48 PM
“Legitimate” is just a fancy word for “thing I like”, exhibit N
February 9, 2025 at 10:45 PM
“Legitimate” is just a fancy word for “thing I like”, exhibit N