Ant Breach
@antbreach.bsky.social
Director of Policy and Research at Centre for Cities, working on Housing, Planning, Devolution. Stuff on Ukraine + Eastern Europe and Japan + East Asia too. YIMBY. Views own etc. 🥑🇺🇦
See our article on council tax reform from a couple of months ago. We need fiscal devolution to allow CT to flex around local prices and provide a strong growth incentive, not a slight tweak to the 1991 system. bsky.app/profile/cent...
November 2, 2025 at 6:44 PM
See our article on council tax reform from a couple of months ago. We need fiscal devolution to allow CT to flex around local prices and provide a strong growth incentive, not a slight tweak to the 1991 system. bsky.app/profile/cent...
The unfortunate thing here is that the Government will take a political hit from increasing council tax, but this won't solve either of its main problems - how centralisation 1) makes CT locally regressive and 2) cripples local growth incentives
November 2, 2025 at 6:35 PM
The unfortunate thing here is that the Government will take a political hit from increasing council tax, but this won't solve either of its main problems - how centralisation 1) makes CT locally regressive and 2) cripples local growth incentives
The actual answer to this problem is to make it profitable to build at a lower price.
Quicker permitting, lower obligations on development, and a planning regime that is more certain and has a wider range of sites. All increase competition, range of business models, and customer demand for supply.
Quicker permitting, lower obligations on development, and a planning regime that is more certain and has a wider range of sites. All increase competition, range of business models, and customer demand for supply.
October 30, 2025 at 9:36 AM
The actual answer to this problem is to make it profitable to build at a lower price.
Quicker permitting, lower obligations on development, and a planning regime that is more certain and has a wider range of sites. All increase competition, range of business models, and customer demand for supply.
Quicker permitting, lower obligations on development, and a planning regime that is more certain and has a wider range of sites. All increase competition, range of business models, and customer demand for supply.
It's in the Containment of Urban England - sums up his view in Vol 1 Chp 7 and Vol 2 pp 397 and 406. His description of the planning system as a "civilised British version of apartheid" was contentious even then
October 21, 2025 at 10:37 AM
It's in the Containment of Urban England - sums up his view in Vol 1 Chp 7 and Vol 2 pp 397 and 406. His description of the planning system as a "civilised British version of apartheid" was contentious even then
Great chart here from @resfoundation.bsky.social on housing costs by square metre by age. Britain's problems with Nimbyism and the planning system in a nutshell.
October 18, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Great chart here from @resfoundation.bsky.social on housing costs by square metre by age. Britain's problems with Nimbyism and the planning system in a nutshell.
And for ONS:
1) We need more transparency
2) Fix the data
3) Understand local data is a national priority
1) We need more transparency
2) Fix the data
3) Understand local data is a national priority
October 16, 2025 at 8:17 AM
And for ONS:
1) We need more transparency
2) Fix the data
3) Understand local data is a national priority
1) We need more transparency
2) Fix the data
3) Understand local data is a national priority
So what are the takeaways?
1) Use the data with caution
2) London is in real trouble and national politicians should care more about it
3) The big cities need continued support
4) Big cities will increasingly differ from each other and need devolution to manage this
1) Use the data with caution
2) London is in real trouble and national politicians should care more about it
3) The big cities need continued support
4) Big cities will increasingly differ from each other and need devolution to manage this
October 16, 2025 at 8:17 AM
So what are the takeaways?
1) Use the data with caution
2) London is in real trouble and national politicians should care more about it
3) The big cities need continued support
4) Big cities will increasingly differ from each other and need devolution to manage this
1) Use the data with caution
2) London is in real trouble and national politicians should care more about it
3) The big cities need continued support
4) Big cities will increasingly differ from each other and need devolution to manage this
What does this mean for the big cities?
While productivity growth is lower in every city, the ranking doesn't change much. Manchester/Leeds/Liverpool are still leading.
But London's stagnation is now a bigger problem - increasing from 1/3 to 2/3 of all the convergence since 2019.
While productivity growth is lower in every city, the ranking doesn't change much. Manchester/Leeds/Liverpool are still leading.
But London's stagnation is now a bigger problem - increasing from 1/3 to 2/3 of all the convergence since 2019.
October 16, 2025 at 8:16 AM
What does this mean for the big cities?
While productivity growth is lower in every city, the ranking doesn't change much. Manchester/Leeds/Liverpool are still leading.
But London's stagnation is now a bigger problem - increasing from 1/3 to 2/3 of all the convergence since 2019.
While productivity growth is lower in every city, the ranking doesn't change much. Manchester/Leeds/Liverpool are still leading.
But London's stagnation is now a bigger problem - increasing from 1/3 to 2/3 of all the convergence since 2019.
The effect of higher labour inputs from the adjusted data is that productivity growth nationally has been lower everywhere since 2019:
October 16, 2025 at 8:15 AM
The effect of higher labour inputs from the adjusted data is that productivity growth nationally has been lower everywhere since 2019:
We can try to understand the scale of this problem and the uncertainty around this data by holding self-employment at 2019 levels.
If we do that, labour inputs since 2019 increase substantially across all geographies:
If we do that, labour inputs since 2019 increase substantially across all geographies:
October 16, 2025 at 8:15 AM
We can try to understand the scale of this problem and the uncertainty around this data by holding self-employment at 2019 levels.
If we do that, labour inputs since 2019 increase substantially across all geographies:
If we do that, labour inputs since 2019 increase substantially across all geographies:
The problem with the self-employment data isn't the gap but the change since 2019.
Employees who corrected their identification from self-employed to employee have fallen out of survey data due to how it is constructed.
This has artificially boosted local productivity stats.
Employees who corrected their identification from self-employed to employee have fallen out of survey data due to how it is constructed.
This has artificially boosted local productivity stats.
October 16, 2025 at 8:14 AM
The problem with the self-employment data isn't the gap but the change since 2019.
Employees who corrected their identification from self-employed to employee have fallen out of survey data due to how it is constructed.
This has artificially boosted local productivity stats.
Employees who corrected their identification from self-employed to employee have fallen out of survey data due to how it is constructed.
This has artificially boosted local productivity stats.
The labour inputs data is more odd. It's remained stable partly as self-employment data has fallen off a cliff, which has boosted productivity estimates.
But is inconsistent with HMRC tax records on self employment, which haven't declined.
But is inconsistent with HMRC tax records on self employment, which haven't declined.
October 16, 2025 at 8:13 AM
The labour inputs data is more odd. It's remained stable partly as self-employment data has fallen off a cliff, which has boosted productivity estimates.
But is inconsistent with HMRC tax records on self employment, which haven't declined.
But is inconsistent with HMRC tax records on self employment, which haven't declined.
Let's dive deeper into these components.
We can't investigate GVA closely due to data restrictions, but over time it does seem output in the big cities outside London has grown quickly since 2019 and stagnated elsewhere. It's unverified but we can't dismiss this data just because it is different.
We can't investigate GVA closely due to data restrictions, but over time it does seem output in the big cities outside London has grown quickly since 2019 and stagnated elsewhere. It's unverified but we can't dismiss this data just because it is different.
October 16, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Let's dive deeper into these components.
We can't investigate GVA closely due to data restrictions, but over time it does seem output in the big cities outside London has grown quickly since 2019 and stagnated elsewhere. It's unverified but we can't dismiss this data just because it is different.
We can't investigate GVA closely due to data restrictions, but over time it does seem output in the big cities outside London has grown quickly since 2019 and stagnated elsewhere. It's unverified but we can't dismiss this data just because it is different.
These components vary a lot between cities. In some places GVA and labour inputs are both growing.
In some cities labour inputs are growing faster than the economy, decreasing productivity
In some output is growing and labour worked is shrinking, rapidly boosting growth
In some cities labour inputs are growing faster than the economy, decreasing productivity
In some output is growing and labour worked is shrinking, rapidly boosting growth
October 16, 2025 at 8:11 AM
These components vary a lot between cities. In some places GVA and labour inputs are both growing.
In some cities labour inputs are growing faster than the economy, decreasing productivity
In some output is growing and labour worked is shrinking, rapidly boosting growth
In some cities labour inputs are growing faster than the economy, decreasing productivity
In some output is growing and labour worked is shrinking, rapidly boosting growth
It's really important we understand what is driving these patterns in the local productivity data and can trust whether they are real.
To define our terms - productivity is how much workers produce. It's economic output (GVA) divided by labour inputs (jobs or total hours worked by everyone)
To define our terms - productivity is how much workers produce. It's economic output (GVA) divided by labour inputs (jobs or total hours worked by everyone)
October 16, 2025 at 8:11 AM
It's really important we understand what is driving these patterns in the local productivity data and can trust whether they are real.
To define our terms - productivity is how much workers produce. It's economic output (GVA) divided by labour inputs (jobs or total hours worked by everyone)
To define our terms - productivity is how much workers produce. It's economic output (GVA) divided by labour inputs (jobs or total hours worked by everyone)
The effect of this decoupling is we are starting to see economic convergence between London and the rest of the country.
Again, some of this is London's stagnation since the late 2000s, but over two thirds of the narrowing has been due to strong growth in the big cities.
Again, some of this is London's stagnation since the late 2000s, but over two thirds of the narrowing has been due to strong growth in the big cities.
October 16, 2025 at 8:10 AM
The effect of this decoupling is we are starting to see economic convergence between London and the rest of the country.
Again, some of this is London's stagnation since the late 2000s, but over two thirds of the narrowing has been due to strong growth in the big cities.
Again, some of this is London's stagnation since the late 2000s, but over two thirds of the narrowing has been due to strong growth in the big cities.
That's why recent data has started to attract excited attention. Although it's a problem that London is stagnating, that some big cities seem to be starting to do well really is good news.
October 16, 2025 at 8:09 AM
That's why recent data has started to attract excited attention. Although it's a problem that London is stagnating, that some big cities seem to be starting to do well really is good news.
The official data on productivity shows Britain's big cities have decoupled from the national economy. But while the big cities outside the capital are roaring ahead, London is stagnating.
But can we trust this data? Are our regional divides closing? Our new paper investigates:
But can we trust this data? Are our regional divides closing? Our new paper investigates:
October 16, 2025 at 8:08 AM
The official data on productivity shows Britain's big cities have decoupled from the national economy. But while the big cities outside the capital are roaring ahead, London is stagnating.
But can we trust this data? Are our regional divides closing? Our new paper investigates:
But can we trust this data? Are our regional divides closing? Our new paper investigates:
Packed room for our @centreforcities.bsky.social In Conversation event with the Mayor of Greater Manchester @andyburnham.bsky.social
October 6, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Packed room for our @centreforcities.bsky.social In Conversation event with the Mayor of Greater Manchester @andyburnham.bsky.social
Packed room for our @centreforcities.bsky.social In Conversation event with the Mayor of Greater Manchester @andyburnham.bsky.social
October 6, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Packed room for our @centreforcities.bsky.social In Conversation event with the Mayor of Greater Manchester @andyburnham.bsky.social
In short, using national rules under TCPA is tricky as Whitehall doesn't know where each rule can reasonably apply.
Zoning solves this by combining stronger rules with local control on the application of rules.
Zoning solves this by combining stronger rules with local control on the application of rules.
September 9, 2025 at 11:35 AM
In short, using national rules under TCPA is tricky as Whitehall doesn't know where each rule can reasonably apply.
Zoning solves this by combining stronger rules with local control on the application of rules.
Zoning solves this by combining stronger rules with local control on the application of rules.
The vagueness of the TCPA system makes it hard for Government to make the system more rules-based.
For example, the Government announced Brownfield Passports on the opening day of Labour Conference last year. But we've not seen any progress since as it is genuinely tricky.
For example, the Government announced Brownfield Passports on the opening day of Labour Conference last year. But we've not seen any progress since as it is genuinely tricky.
September 9, 2025 at 11:34 AM
The vagueness of the TCPA system makes it hard for Government to make the system more rules-based.
For example, the Government announced Brownfield Passports on the opening day of Labour Conference last year. But we've not seen any progress since as it is genuinely tricky.
For example, the Government announced Brownfield Passports on the opening day of Labour Conference last year. But we've not seen any progress since as it is genuinely tricky.
A weird thing about the discretionary system established by the Town and Country Planning Act 1947 is its legal basis is really rather vague about how planning rules and local plans should function.
Zoning would see rules and local plans be more tightly defined in law.
Zoning would see rules and local plans be more tightly defined in law.
September 9, 2025 at 11:34 AM
A weird thing about the discretionary system established by the Town and Country Planning Act 1947 is its legal basis is really rather vague about how planning rules and local plans should function.
Zoning would see rules and local plans be more tightly defined in law.
Zoning would see rules and local plans be more tightly defined in law.
The Government is considering a second planning bill - if they are serious about meeting their target of 1.5 million new homes, they should use it to introduce a new flexible zoning system:
September 9, 2025 at 11:33 AM
The Government is considering a second planning bill - if they are serious about meeting their target of 1.5 million new homes, they should use it to introduce a new flexible zoning system:
Britain's housing crisis is so big as we have been underbuilding for so long - since the Town and Country Planning Act 1947. That's why compared to the West European average we are missing at least 4.3 million homes. We need a 15% increase in stock to get to the average (which might still feel low!)
September 4, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Britain's housing crisis is so big as we have been underbuilding for so long - since the Town and Country Planning Act 1947. That's why compared to the West European average we are missing at least 4.3 million homes. We need a 15% increase in stock to get to the average (which might still feel low!)