Animti
@animti.bsky.social
Just a random idiot misusing his time online. Failing at being a good person. He/him, old enough for back pain some mornings.
So many people on this side of the Atlantic (NW Europe) I've talked to don't realise this. Some do, but most think it'll be status quo ante come mid 2029.
By necessity, the US is going to have to focus inwards to a degree that is going to take away from its presence abroad.
By necessity, the US is going to have to focus inwards to a degree that is going to take away from its presence abroad.
December 30, 2025 at 3:50 PM
So many people on this side of the Atlantic (NW Europe) I've talked to don't realise this. Some do, but most think it'll be status quo ante come mid 2029.
By necessity, the US is going to have to focus inwards to a degree that is going to take away from its presence abroad.
By necessity, the US is going to have to focus inwards to a degree that is going to take away from its presence abroad.
And in a nice day-on-day-off pattern too. How predictably unpredictable weather.
December 25, 2025 at 9:18 PM
And in a nice day-on-day-off pattern too. How predictably unpredictable weather.
Afronding van een restzetel? JA21 staat ook op +1 en is ideologisch niet zo'n grote stap, dus dat kan ook... Optie 3 is dat de Hond weer eens aan de knoppen van de peilingen zit te draaien.
December 21, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Afronding van een restzetel? JA21 staat ook op +1 en is ideologisch niet zo'n grote stap, dus dat kan ook... Optie 3 is dat de Hond weer eens aan de knoppen van de peilingen zit te draaien.
At this point, I'm not wondering about guillotines overly much.
I'm wondering if there's going to be a market for pikes or similar implements.
(I remain utterly dumbfounded no ICE or 'ICE' agent has ended up dead yet. Militarization of police got anything to do with that?)
I'm wondering if there's going to be a market for pikes or similar implements.
(I remain utterly dumbfounded no ICE or 'ICE' agent has ended up dead yet. Militarization of police got anything to do with that?)
December 21, 2025 at 1:03 AM
At this point, I'm not wondering about guillotines overly much.
I'm wondering if there's going to be a market for pikes or similar implements.
(I remain utterly dumbfounded no ICE or 'ICE' agent has ended up dead yet. Militarization of police got anything to do with that?)
I'm wondering if there's going to be a market for pikes or similar implements.
(I remain utterly dumbfounded no ICE or 'ICE' agent has ended up dead yet. Militarization of police got anything to do with that?)
Homer Simpson coming out favourably in the intelligence department?
homer simpson says to start press any key where 's the any key ?
Alt: Homer Simpson waving his left hand over a keyboard to a very old computer. The screen says 'To start, press any key."
Homer, in response, ask "Where's the 'any' key?"
media.tenor.com
December 4, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Homer Simpson coming out favourably in the intelligence department?
Weren't redder districts in VA the ones that moved least as well last month?
Meaning that if it's a reasonably accurate comparison, which I understand is a big if, then those 7-10 point movements in the redder parts are ominous as hell.
Which, to be clear, micron-sized violins are in order for.
Meaning that if it's a reasonably accurate comparison, which I understand is a big if, then those 7-10 point movements in the redder parts are ominous as hell.
Which, to be clear, micron-sized violins are in order for.
December 3, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Weren't redder districts in VA the ones that moved least as well last month?
Meaning that if it's a reasonably accurate comparison, which I understand is a big if, then those 7-10 point movements in the redder parts are ominous as hell.
Which, to be clear, micron-sized violins are in order for.
Meaning that if it's a reasonably accurate comparison, which I understand is a big if, then those 7-10 point movements in the redder parts are ominous as hell.
Which, to be clear, micron-sized violins are in order for.
They're free to speak (which is distinct from freedom of speech), just as others are free to ignore them. Marketplace of ideas or some other overused tortured metaphor, I'm sure...
December 2, 2025 at 3:15 PM
They're free to speak (which is distinct from freedom of speech), just as others are free to ignore them. Marketplace of ideas or some other overused tortured metaphor, I'm sure...
I'm on team 'wanting to claim momentum is back', but even a regular R+8 - a bit below PVI - I'd not consider great news for the GOP given the decline of incumbency advantage to what... 3-4 % these days?
December 2, 2025 at 2:55 PM
I'm on team 'wanting to claim momentum is back', but even a regular R+8 - a bit below PVI - I'd not consider great news for the GOP given the decline of incumbency advantage to what... 3-4 % these days?
That is actually rad. Slightly weird, but deeply rad.
November 12, 2025 at 3:43 PM
That is actually rad. Slightly weird, but deeply rad.
Add that to the aforementioned statesman - Timmermans - being a very easily defined politician - former Foreign Sec, big mover on the European Green New Deal - and a weak campaign proper both times now.
There's also a discussion about media landscape in here, I suppose, but not untangling that. 2/2
There's also a discussion about media landscape in here, I suppose, but not untangling that. 2/2
October 30, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Add that to the aforementioned statesman - Timmermans - being a very easily defined politician - former Foreign Sec, big mover on the European Green New Deal - and a weak campaign proper both times now.
There's also a discussion about media landscape in here, I suppose, but not untangling that. 2/2
There's also a discussion about media landscape in here, I suppose, but not untangling that. 2/2
It's early days of course, but my suspicion is that they tried for an elder statesman as their leader when that isn't vibing with the electorate; the merger was somewhat acrimonious with a few old PvdA politicos; and they're the primary party D66 could drain from on vibes in the last few days. 1/
October 30, 2025 at 9:38 PM
It's early days of course, but my suspicion is that they tried for an elder statesman as their leader when that isn't vibing with the electorate; the merger was somewhat acrimonious with a few old PvdA politicos; and they're the primary party D66 could drain from on vibes in the last few days. 1/
Very. I'd argue this level of shift is within general variables, but I'm very much left of centre and dislike the 'hard right' parties for reasons other than (but undoubtedly influenced by) their ideology. Distinction without a difference or whatever the phrase is IMO. Others may disagree.
October 30, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Very. I'd argue this level of shift is within general variables, but I'm very much left of centre and dislike the 'hard right' parties for reasons other than (but undoubtedly influenced by) their ideology. Distinction without a difference or whatever the phrase is IMO. Others may disagree.
The two far right parties went from ~26 % to ~21 % and the two 'hard' right went from ~5.5 % to ~8.5 %. (Exact % may change, still counting.) Given one of the hard right ran a campaign emulating a far right party, and the other hard right split *from* a far right party 4y ago... 3/3
October 30, 2025 at 1:50 PM
The two far right parties went from ~26 % to ~21 % and the two 'hard' right went from ~5.5 % to ~8.5 %. (Exact % may change, still counting.) Given one of the hard right ran a campaign emulating a far right party, and the other hard right split *from* a far right party 4y ago... 3/3
VVD had lost a portion of those voters in 2023 anyway, I'd assume reversion to mean more likely there. (VVD broke the informal cordon sanitaire back then.)
Around 30 % is still in far or hard right parties, just some movement within those groups. That share is stable: ~31 % in '23, ~29.5 % now. 2/
Around 30 % is still in far or hard right parties, just some movement within those groups. That share is stable: ~31 % in '23, ~29.5 % now. 2/
October 30, 2025 at 1:50 PM
VVD had lost a portion of those voters in 2023 anyway, I'd assume reversion to mean more likely there. (VVD broke the informal cordon sanitaire back then.)
Around 30 % is still in far or hard right parties, just some movement within those groups. That share is stable: ~31 % in '23, ~29.5 % now. 2/
Around 30 % is still in far or hard right parties, just some movement within those groups. That share is stable: ~31 % in '23, ~29.5 % now. 2/
On vibes, correct analogy. Late surge and Wilders slumped late.
On actual votes: less clear. Estimates are D66 won mainly from other parties willing to go into government - with one party (one man show) imploding and the VVD (mainstream right wing) gaining back far right voters. 1/
On actual votes: less clear. Estimates are D66 won mainly from other parties willing to go into government - with one party (one man show) imploding and the VVD (mainstream right wing) gaining back far right voters. 1/
October 30, 2025 at 1:50 PM
On vibes, correct analogy. Late surge and Wilders slumped late.
On actual votes: less clear. Estimates are D66 won mainly from other parties willing to go into government - with one party (one man show) imploding and the VVD (mainstream right wing) gaining back far right voters. 1/
On actual votes: less clear. Estimates are D66 won mainly from other parties willing to go into government - with one party (one man show) imploding and the VVD (mainstream right wing) gaining back far right voters. 1/
Not how it went down. Far right (MAGA equiv) votes are down from ~27 % to ~21 %, but a party that's borderline that / hard right - who performatively split from far right over antisemitism - gained 5 %.
D66 got plurality of new seats from the centre-left and an imploding party on the right.
D66 got plurality of new seats from the centre-left and an imploding party on the right.
October 30, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Not how it went down. Far right (MAGA equiv) votes are down from ~27 % to ~21 %, but a party that's borderline that / hard right - who performatively split from far right over antisemitism - gained 5 %.
D66 got plurality of new seats from the centre-left and an imploding party on the right.
D66 got plurality of new seats from the centre-left and an imploding party on the right.
Ach, nog wat meer regen en gratis zwembad bij huis!
October 24, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Ach, nog wat meer regen en gratis zwembad bij huis!
No bark (or little bark) and no brain?
Doggo okay?
Doggo okay?
October 17, 2025 at 12:53 PM
No bark (or little bark) and no brain?
Doggo okay?
Doggo okay?
Eerste* groep? Groep 1 weigert pertinent, groep 2 is bezig met uitbreiden en heeft daar ook de bonnetjes van. Het is onzinnig om dan groep 2 uit te kafferen en groep 1 te laten gaan.
Nu is onzin wel de modus operandi vanuit de laatste paar kabinetten (vanaf Rutte 2 minimaal) op Asiel, dus tja.
Nu is onzin wel de modus operandi vanuit de laatste paar kabinetten (vanaf Rutte 2 minimaal) op Asiel, dus tja.
October 13, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Eerste* groep? Groep 1 weigert pertinent, groep 2 is bezig met uitbreiden en heeft daar ook de bonnetjes van. Het is onzinnig om dan groep 2 uit te kafferen en groep 1 te laten gaan.
Nu is onzin wel de modus operandi vanuit de laatste paar kabinetten (vanaf Rutte 2 minimaal) op Asiel, dus tja.
Nu is onzin wel de modus operandi vanuit de laatste paar kabinetten (vanaf Rutte 2 minimaal) op Asiel, dus tja.
Dat zal zeker niet hebben geholpen bij de recalcitranten (groep 1), maar bij groep 2 moet je ook geschikte langetermijnlocaties vinden. Het kost tijd om dingen op te zetten.
En ja, het zwalkende beleid heeft daar ook een factor in gehad. Aantal gemeenten hebben onduidelijkheid als reden aangevoerd.
En ja, het zwalkende beleid heeft daar ook een factor in gehad. Aantal gemeenten hebben onduidelijkheid als reden aangevoerd.
October 13, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Dat zal zeker niet hebben geholpen bij de recalcitranten (groep 1), maar bij groep 2 moet je ook geschikte langetermijnlocaties vinden. Het kost tijd om dingen op te zetten.
En ja, het zwalkende beleid heeft daar ook een factor in gehad. Aantal gemeenten hebben onduidelijkheid als reden aangevoerd.
En ja, het zwalkende beleid heeft daar ook een factor in gehad. Aantal gemeenten hebben onduidelijkheid als reden aangevoerd.
Niet elke gemeente doet er evenveel aan, nee. Sommigen doen niets, al dan niet onder druk van bepaalde groepen. (Zie Noordwijk, geloof ik.)
Anderen voldoen ook niet aan de eis gesteld vanuit de spreidingswet, maar zijn wel bezig met opvang vergroten. (Bijv Utrecht, Dordrecht.)
Het verschilt.
Anderen voldoen ook niet aan de eis gesteld vanuit de spreidingswet, maar zijn wel bezig met opvang vergroten. (Bijv Utrecht, Dordrecht.)
Het verschilt.
October 13, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Niet elke gemeente doet er evenveel aan, nee. Sommigen doen niets, al dan niet onder druk van bepaalde groepen. (Zie Noordwijk, geloof ik.)
Anderen voldoen ook niet aan de eis gesteld vanuit de spreidingswet, maar zijn wel bezig met opvang vergroten. (Bijv Utrecht, Dordrecht.)
Het verschilt.
Anderen voldoen ook niet aan de eis gesteld vanuit de spreidingswet, maar zijn wel bezig met opvang vergroten. (Bijv Utrecht, Dordrecht.)
Het verschilt.
De spreidingswet is nog steeds wet volgens mij? Er is nooit een wetsvoorstel geweest dat én door de Kamers is gekomen én dat de constructie opheft?
Ja, Faber maakte geluid dat ze dat wilde, maar toen viel het kabinet (en toen nog een keer), en er ligt een nota, maar dat is geen intrekken...
Ja, Faber maakte geluid dat ze dat wilde, maar toen viel het kabinet (en toen nog een keer), en er ligt een nota, maar dat is geen intrekken...
October 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
De spreidingswet is nog steeds wet volgens mij? Er is nooit een wetsvoorstel geweest dat én door de Kamers is gekomen én dat de constructie opheft?
Ja, Faber maakte geluid dat ze dat wilde, maar toen viel het kabinet (en toen nog een keer), en er ligt een nota, maar dat is geen intrekken...
Ja, Faber maakte geluid dat ze dat wilde, maar toen viel het kabinet (en toen nog een keer), en er ligt een nota, maar dat is geen intrekken...