Analysis is based on sentence-level semantic search of inductively-discovered threat topic groups, filtered to include the word 'threat'. Data sourced from the Edinburgh National Security and Defence Documents dataset. datashare.ed.ac.uk/handle/10283...

State-sponsored threats:
Both espionage and sabotage emerge as prominent concerns in 2025—espionage doubling from the 2020-2023 baseline whilst sabotage appears as an entirely new threat category—reflecting intensified state competition and the targeting of critical national infrastructure.

Missile threat salience rose 90% in 2025, likely driven by proliferation of advanced ballistic and hypersonic capabilities amongst adversarial states and the erosion of traditional arms control frameworks.

Hybrid warfare salience increased 67% by 2025, indicating growing governmental concern over coordinated grey-zone operations that blur the boundaries between peace and conflict through disinformation, cyberattacks, and economic coercion.

AI and emerging technologies:
Artificial intelligence appears as a discrete security threat for the first time in 2025, marking official recognition of AI's dual-use potential and autonomous systems vulnerabilities in an increasingly technology-dependent security landscape.

Military/Traditional Threats:
Military threats peaked early (2002-2003) and have maintained consistent but lower-level attention, with recent uptick in 2025, reflecting renewed conventional security concerns.

Climate: emerging priority
Climate-related security concerns were absent from early documents but emerged in 2009 and peaked in 2020. Notably, explicit mention climate threats have disappeared entirely from 2025 documents, suggesting a possible shift in framing or priorities.

Nuclear: persistent concern
Nuclear threats have maintained steady relevance throughout the period, with notable spikes in 2008 and consistent presence in recent documents.

Cyber: rise and plateau
Cyber threats first gained significant attention in 2009 and peaked in 2015. Unlike terrorism, cyber threats have remained consistently present but at lower levels recently.

Terrorism: declining
Terrorism emerged as the primary security concern post-9/11, peaking during 2008-2009 and maintaining high levels through to 2018. However, there's been a marked decline in recent years.

🤣

Lord Robertson, former head of NATO, was a highlight, with his Scottish raconteur style. Also my first time seeing a PM up close. Pro-Palestinian protesters held a diligent presence outside, good for them. I spoke on a great mixed panel on energy security.