Andrew A. Michta
@andrewmichta.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council of the United States. All views my own. Reposting doesn’t imply endorsement.
It is as though China were taking a page from the American playbook from World Wars I and II (..). In those two wars, the US entered last, suffered the fewest casualties, and was positioned to frame the political settlement after the shooting had stopped. nationalsecurityjournal.org/china-will-n...
China Will Never Let Russia Lose the War in Ukraine
The key to ending the Ukraine war isn't in Moscow, but in Beijing. A look at how China is strategically exploiting the conflict to weaken the U.S. and why it will never let Russia lose.
nationalsecurityjournal.org
August 16, 2025 at 11:27 PM
It is as though China were taking a page from the American playbook from World Wars I and II (..). In those two wars, the US entered last, suffered the fewest casualties, and was positioned to frame the political settlement after the shooting had stopped. nationalsecurityjournal.org/china-will-n...
The key question for NATO’s future is whether the United States will remain fully engaged on the continent and how German-Russian and German-Chinese relations will evolve going forward. My latest for RCD. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
NATO and the Future of European Security: The German Question
Four years ago, it would have been hard to believe that U.S. relations with its European NATO allies would reach another inflection point. Much of the current flux stems from the changing power distri
www.realcleardefense.com
August 3, 2025 at 10:14 AM
The key question for NATO’s future is whether the United States will remain fully engaged on the continent and how German-Russian and German-Chinese relations will evolve going forward. My latest for RCD. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
Worth reading by Le Figaro’s brilliant Laure Mandeville—including a few quotations from me. En cas d’invasion de Taïwan par la Chine, le scénario d’une diversion de Poutine en Europe www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
En cas d’invasion de Taïwan par la Chine, le scénario d’une diversion de Poutine en Europe
ANALYSE - Le secrétaire général de l’Otan, Mark Rutte, a remis sur la table la question clé de l’alliance sino-russe que Washington a tenté d’éviter sans succès.
www.lefigaro.fr
July 13, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Worth reading by Le Figaro’s brilliant Laure Mandeville—including a few quotations from me. En cas d’invasion de Taïwan par la Chine, le scénario d’une diversion de Poutine en Europe www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
Reportedly, Army planners are w weighing force reductions of up to 90,000 active-duty soldiers. If this story is confirmed and the reductions implemented, this will have more impact than all the debates about the future of NATO. Facts on the ground. www.military.com/daily-news/2...
Army Planners Are Weighing Force Reductions of Up to 90,000 Active-Duty Soldiers
The Army is quietly considering a sweeping reduction of up to 90,000 active-duty troops, a move that underscores mounting fiscal pressures at the Pentagon and a broader shift in military strategy away...
www.military.com
April 4, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Reportedly, Army planners are w weighing force reductions of up to 90,000 active-duty soldiers. If this story is confirmed and the reductions implemented, this will have more impact than all the debates about the future of NATO. Facts on the ground. www.military.com/daily-news/2...
„At the core of this unprecedented turmoil in transatlantic relations is what appears to be a fundamental shift in the United States’ relationship with Russia, which is the larger context of the Ukraine cease-fire negotiations.” My take for 19FortyFive
www.19fortyfive.com/2025/03/dona...
www.19fortyfive.com/2025/03/dona...
Donald Trump's Russia Strategy Could End NATO as We Know It
The Trump administration's effort to pivot towards Russia, ostensibly to distance Moscow from Beijing, risks undermining NATO and weakening transatlantic unity.
www.19fortyfive.com
March 27, 2025 at 2:43 PM
„At the core of this unprecedented turmoil in transatlantic relations is what appears to be a fundamental shift in the United States’ relationship with Russia, which is the larger context of the Ukraine cease-fire negotiations.” My take for 19FortyFive
www.19fortyfive.com/2025/03/dona...
www.19fortyfive.com/2025/03/dona...
Reposted by Andrew A. Michta
No more Q, thank you @andrewmichta.bsky.social! #sivispacemparabellum www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impa... via @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
January 3, 2025 at 3:10 PM
No more Q, thank you @andrewmichta.bsky.social! #sivispacemparabellum www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impa... via @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
“Russia will take the West seriously and heed its warnings only if it sees that we possess the military capabilities and, most importantly, the intestinal fortitude to deter aggression and, if need be, defend our interests with force.” My latest. www.19fortyfive.com/2025/01/russ...
Russia’s Imperial Mindset: Understanding the Roots of the Ukraine War
As the second Trump administration prepares to take charge of US foreign and security policy, there is intense debate in Washington about what the end state in Ukraine should be, what kind of a peace ...
www.19fortyfive.com
January 3, 2025 at 10:27 AM
“Russia will take the West seriously and heed its warnings only if it sees that we possess the military capabilities and, most importantly, the intestinal fortitude to deter aggression and, if need be, defend our interests with force.” My latest. www.19fortyfive.com/2025/01/russ...
We find ourselves in an environment increasingly reminiscent of the late 1930s, where the overarching balance of power is becoming ever-less stable.
www.19fortyfive.com/2024/12/the-...
www.19fortyfive.com/2024/12/the-...
The United States Must Revisit the Basics of Geostrategy
It has become something of a cliché in Washington policy debates that the world today is more unstable and dangerous than at any time since the end of the Cold War. But even this statement doesn’t ful...
www.19fortyfive.com
December 16, 2024 at 12:47 PM
We find ourselves in an environment increasingly reminiscent of the late 1930s, where the overarching balance of power is becoming ever-less stable.
www.19fortyfive.com/2024/12/the-...
www.19fortyfive.com/2024/12/the-...
We need to relearn that the effectiveness of our weapons doesn’t rest solely on the relentless pursuit of the technological holy grail, but that these are tools that must be crafted to consider the geography and type of fight the enemy is likely to favor. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
The Pentagon Should Rethink What Weapons and Munitions It Should Buy
The war in Ukraine has put paid to many assumptions about the weapons systems and munitions the U.S. military needs going forward. For the past three decades our defense industrial base has oper
www.realcleardefense.com
November 27, 2024 at 12:13 PM
We need to relearn that the effectiveness of our weapons doesn’t rest solely on the relentless pursuit of the technological holy grail, but that these are tools that must be crafted to consider the geography and type of fight the enemy is likely to favor. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
The United States should encourage, work more closely with, and reward those allies that spend the money and share the risk to ensure their own defense and to resource NATO’s regional plans with real exercised capabilities—the Northeast corridor in NATO. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
The US should help NATO allies that help themselves
Washington should prioritize its defense cooperation with member states that are doing the most to bolster their own defenses, especially the Northeast corridor allies.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
November 27, 2024 at 12:11 PM
The United States should encourage, work more closely with, and reward those allies that spend the money and share the risk to ensure their own defense and to resource NATO’s regional plans with real exercised capabilities—the Northeast corridor in NATO. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
It was an honor to testify at this important hearing. www.youtube.com/live/hUJrrZm...
YouTube
Share your videos with friends, family, and the world
www.youtube.com
November 21, 2024 at 1:42 AM
It was an honor to testify at this important hearing. www.youtube.com/live/hUJrrZm...
Today’s hearing on on Ukraine on Capitol Hill including my testimony www.csce.gov/press-releas...
HEARING – 1000 Days of Russia’s War on Ukraine – CSCE
www.csce.gov
November 19, 2024 at 9:52 PM
Today’s hearing on on Ukraine on Capitol Hill including my testimony www.csce.gov/press-releas...
“Assuming China sticks to its Taiwan timeline, the next secretary has two years to prevent World War III.” I’ve warned repeatedly that the next two-three years will be decisive in both the Atlantic and the Pacific theaters. Rearmament must be top priority. www.wsj.com/opinion/two-...
Opinion | Pentagon Has Two Years to Prevent World War III
To prepare, Defense Secretary-designate Pete Hegseth will need to overhaul the bureaucracy and cut waste.
www.wsj.com
November 14, 2024 at 3:43 PM
“Assuming China sticks to its Taiwan timeline, the next secretary has two years to prevent World War III.” I’ve warned repeatedly that the next two-three years will be decisive in both the Atlantic and the Pacific theaters. Rearmament must be top priority. www.wsj.com/opinion/two-...
“By bringing Pyongyang into the fight, Moscow has dropped all pretense that it is concerned about horizontal escalation.” cepa.org/article/russ...
Russia and China: Two Countries, One Threat
Since the outbreak of all-out war in Ukraine, debate has raged in the US on whether the Russian and Chinese threats can be separated.
cepa.org
November 12, 2024 at 5:11 PM
“By bringing Pyongyang into the fight, Moscow has dropped all pretense that it is concerned about horizontal escalation.” cepa.org/article/russ...
No amount of AI assisted systems or long-range precision fires can compensate for the stark reality that the United States needs to design and manufacture weapons that it can deploy in large numbers. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
www.realcleardefense.com
November 11, 2024 at 11:43 AM
No amount of AI assisted systems or long-range precision fires can compensate for the stark reality that the United States needs to design and manufacture weapons that it can deploy in large numbers. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
“The United States should encourage, work more closely with, and reward those allies that spend the money and share the risk to ensure their own defense and to resource NATO’s regional plans with real exercised capabilities.” My take. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
The US should help NATO allies that help themselves
Washington should prioritize its defense cooperation with member states that are doing the most to bolster their own defenses, especially the Northeast corridor allies.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
November 11, 2024 at 11:35 AM
“The United States should encourage, work more closely with, and reward those allies that spend the money and share the risk to ensure their own defense and to resource NATO’s regional plans with real exercised capabilities.” My take. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Thank you for your service! God bless! #VeteransDay2024
November 11, 2024 at 11:33 AM
Thank you for your service! God bless! #VeteransDay2024
www.csce.gov/press-releas.... I look forward to testifying next week.
BRIEFING – Contesting Russia: Lessons from Central & Eastern Europe – CSCE
www.csce.gov
October 18, 2024 at 9:35 PM
www.csce.gov/press-releas.... I look forward to testifying next week.
Reposted by Andrew A. Michta
@andrewmichta.bsky.social
Director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative
The world today is more fractured than at any time since the end of the Cold War. We are heading for a period of protracted systemic instability, with #Europe,--
alt👀
My take. ⬇️ www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
Director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative
The world today is more fractured than at any time since the end of the Cold War. We are heading for a period of protracted systemic instability, with #Europe,--
alt👀
My take. ⬇️ www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
September 6, 2024 at 5:11 PM
@andrewmichta.bsky.social
Director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative
The world today is more fractured than at any time since the end of the Cold War. We are heading for a period of protracted systemic instability, with #Europe,--
alt👀
My take. ⬇️ www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
Director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative
The world today is more fractured than at any time since the end of the Cold War. We are heading for a period of protracted systemic instability, with #Europe,--
alt👀
My take. ⬇️ www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
Reposted by Andrew A. Michta
#Germany #Ukraine
x.com/andrewmichta...
Andrew A. Michta
@andrewmichta.bsky.social 👏🙏
If confirmed, this is the worst moment for such a decision by #Berlin. It sends exactly the wrong message. It should be reversed immediately.
#ArmUkraineNow #StandWithUkraine
🔴 www.politico.eu/article/germ...
x.com/andrewmichta...
Andrew A. Michta
@andrewmichta.bsky.social 👏🙏
If confirmed, this is the worst moment for such a decision by #Berlin. It sends exactly the wrong message. It should be reversed immediately.
#ArmUkraineNow #StandWithUkraine
🔴 www.politico.eu/article/germ...
Germany to halt new Ukraine military aid: Report
The ban, which is already in place, will affect all new requests for assistance to Kyiv, Germany’s FAZ newspaper reported.
www.politico.eu
August 17, 2024 at 2:02 PM
#Germany #Ukraine
x.com/andrewmichta...
Andrew A. Michta
@andrewmichta.bsky.social 👏🙏
If confirmed, this is the worst moment for such a decision by #Berlin. It sends exactly the wrong message. It should be reversed immediately.
#ArmUkraineNow #StandWithUkraine
🔴 www.politico.eu/article/germ...
x.com/andrewmichta...
Andrew A. Michta
@andrewmichta.bsky.social 👏🙏
If confirmed, this is the worst moment for such a decision by #Berlin. It sends exactly the wrong message. It should be reversed immediately.
#ArmUkraineNow #StandWithUkraine
🔴 www.politico.eu/article/germ...
Reposted by Andrew A. Michta
Connecting this to @andrewmichta.bsky.social call in City Journal piece for domestic industrial rejuvenation. www.city-journal.org/article/waki...
Unscientific poll based on our conversations but the "arsenal of democracy" narrative seems to have more #doorstep salience than appeals to "U.S. leadership" in terms of generating public support for engagement overseas.
February 6, 2024 at 12:03 AM
Connecting this to @andrewmichta.bsky.social call in City Journal piece for domestic industrial rejuvenation. www.city-journal.org/article/waki...
Reposted by Andrew A. Michta
Very important essay from @andrewmichta.bsky.social: Strategic prioritization is key; must avoid "everything is a priority" approach but also ability to recognize legacy priorities may diminish as geopolitical/geoeconomic conditions change. 1/ www.city-journal.org/article/waki...
Waking A Weary Superpower
How America can overcome its crisis of self-confidence
www.city-journal.org
February 6, 2024 at 12:04 AM
Very important essay from @andrewmichta.bsky.social: Strategic prioritization is key; must avoid "everything is a priority" approach but also ability to recognize legacy priorities may diminish as geopolitical/geoeconomic conditions change. 1/ www.city-journal.org/article/waki...
It’s time for an American national security strategy that doesn’t merely speak about “maintaining the rules-based international order” in normative terms, but draws a geostrategic map of the world that favors US interests—as well as those of its allies. @politico.eu www.politico.eu/article/west...
January 15, 2024 at 11:36 PM
It’s time for an American national security strategy that doesn’t merely speak about “maintaining the rules-based international order” in normative terms, but draws a geostrategic map of the world that favors US interests—as well as those of its allies. @politico.eu www.politico.eu/article/west...