A big thank you to David W. Yellen, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Albéric Mongrenier, Zuzana Pelakova, Olena Pavlenko, Ján Mykhalchyk Hradický, Mara Balasa, and the rest of the Clean Air Task Force team for your valuable inputs along the way!

...geopolitical dependence on authoritarian energy exporters, the CEE region can convert existing vulnerabilities into strategic assets. This will strengthen its own agency and enhance the EU's collective geopolitical power within a swiftly changing global energy landscape."

The paper looks at the energy transition in CEE as a "geopolitical necessity, rather than merely a technological or economic undertaking. By designing long-term scenario planning, aligning national interests with EU-wide industrial and energy strategies, and mitigating...

Despite this context, optimism in #Brussels is at historic highs.The Electrification Action Plan & European Grids Package are expected-at best-by the end of this year, most probably in Q1 '26-critical documents to increase the EU electrification by the unrealistic 50% by 2030.

Additionally, on average, the YoY power transformer order backlog for some of the main manufacturers has increased by more than 30% in 2024. For these reasons (and many others), it takes an average of 8 years to develop an extra-high-voltage line in regions like Europe & the US.

One interesting question is whether US secondary sanctions may be an option for other Russian commodities, which may, in turn, hurt Europeans more than China or India, as is the case for oil.

Even if that were to happen, the above-mentioned demand destruction would lead (in the medium and long term) to a bearish market, also influenced by other factors, such as the OPEC+ supply increase.

…fewer goods produced by these countries, including for their main importer, the US) has pushed prices. However, as long as sanctions are not actually imposed, the effect will only be temporary.

We are once again looking at different layers of geopolitical and geoeconomic premiums. The statement on potential secondary sanctions on Russian oil (which would indeed hurt Russia’s oil revenues, while also affecting Chinese and Indian oil demand, eventually leading to…