Dr Andreas Krieg
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andreaskrieg.bsky.social
Dr Andreas Krieg
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social
1.5K followers 68 following 420 posts
Author - Asso Prof King's College London / Royal College of Defence Studies (Global Strategy Program)

Fellow Institute of Middle Eastern Studies

Director MENA analytica Ltd

Interests: MENA, Gulf, Network-centric statecraft
Posts Replies Media Videos
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
Die Emirate sorgen dafür, dass es möglichst keine
Belege für eine direkte Verbindung zu den RSF gibt», sagt der Militärexperte @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. «Die Unterstützung wird stets so arrangiert, dass sie glaubwürdig geleugnet werden kann.»
www.nzz.ch/internationa...
Von Kamelreitern zu High-Tech-Piloten – wie Drohnen den Sudan-Krieg verändern
Drohnen sind das neue Machtinstrument in Afrikas Kriegen. Nirgendwo zeigt sich das so drastisch wie im Sudan. Eine visuelle Analyse über diese neue Waffe – und die Mächte im Hintergrund.
www.nzz.ch
November 10, 2025 at 8:56 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
My new piece ✍️ on #UAE strategy in #Sudan

"Since the Arab Spring, MbZ has been consistent: tie local actors to UAE logistics and finance, reward compliance, punish betrayal, and cultivate multiple allies so you never lose your seat at the table"
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uae-...
The UAE has taken Sudan to the brink. Now it must use its power to end the war
By doubling down on the RSF, Abu Dhabi expanded the brutal civil war. It should now leverage that entanglement to push for deescalation
www.middleeasteye.net
November 7, 2025 at 10:51 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"This is part of what I call Abu Dhabi’s ‘Axis of Secessionists’, a strategy that wins by not being defeated, keeping allies resourced and corridors open, and converting time into leverage," said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social" #UAE #RSF
www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
How the fall of El-Fasher could cement Sudan’s partition
Marking one of the bloodiest chapters in the brutal 18-month war, the fall of El-Fasher to the RSF could permanently alter Sudan’s map
www.newarab.com
November 3, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg
merlynthomas.bsky.social
For Palestinians, a line on a map can be the difference between life and death.

BBC Verify found Israel is controlling more of Gaza than agreed in the ceasefire deal.

Israel said anyone who crossed its "yellow line" would be “met with fire”.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Israel maintaining control deeper inside Gaza than expected, new boundary markers suggest
Israel has placed boundary markers up to 520m deeper inside Gaza than expected under the ceasefire deal with Hamas.
www.bbc.co.uk
October 23, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg
merlynthomas.bsky.social
Multiple experts suggested the blocks were intended to create a "buffer zone" between Palestinians and IDF troops.

"This gives the IDF space to manoeuvre and create a 'kill zone' against potential targets" @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
October 23, 2025 at 4:37 PM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"This is just a ceasefire that needs to be translated into a peace deal. Turkish boots on the ground will be important to move towards a multinational security force in Gaza," he explained, saying Turkey and Qatar would play a key role in "deconflicting" efforts.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
Turkey, Qatar step up bid to protect Gaza truce
Turkey and Qatar intensified efforts to preserve the fragile Gaza ceasefire, with their leaders meeting in Doha Wednesday as diplomatic and intelligence chiefs coordinated to prevent renewed fighting,...
www.yahoo.com
October 23, 2025 at 7:52 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"As Prof @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, a Middle East security expert from King's College London, says: "It's worse than starting from scratch - here you aren't starting in the sand, you are starting with rubble." #Gaza
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
'Worse than starting from scratch': how big is the task of rebuilding Gaza?
BBC Verify investigates the damage done by two years of war, which could take $70bn and decades to repair.
www.bbc.co.uk
October 16, 2025 at 7:55 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
On how the #Gulf states have generated strategic autonomy through #network centric statecraft, weaponizing connectivity and interdependence to extract global influence.
youtu.be/sejgGFDfrAw
"The Gulf has generated strategic autonomy through network-centric statecraft"
YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg
youtu.be
October 15, 2025 at 9:54 PM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"Israel has systematically destroyed Gaza's civil and governance infrastructure. With Hamas severely degraded, the vacuum may be filled by rival factions. This chaos could serve Israel’s interests, providing a pretext to re-enter under the guise of restoring order"
youtu.be/_n1-xR-LF34
"Collapse of law and order in Gaza greatest threat to peace plan"
YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg
youtu.be
October 14, 2025 at 8:59 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
Citing Sarajevo, Grozny, and Mosul, @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
said: “There are precedents, but #Gaza is totally different. There it was one single city — here it is four times that — one massive strip of land.”
www.thetimes.com/world/middle...
October 11, 2025 at 9:00 PM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"A transition to sustainable peace in #Gaza lacks four elements: (1) a mutually hurting stalemate; (2) effective leadership on both sides; (3) committed international guarantors; and (4) a viable DDR program for disarmament amid an open-ended IDF withdrawal plan"
youtu.be/7GhxRS9ohgs
What is next for the Palestinian resistance movements? | Inside Story
YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg
youtu.be
October 10, 2025 at 6:52 PM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"Negotiators are still working through the order of steps on a first phase that ties a ceasefire to an initial Israeli pullback and a hostage-prisoner exchange. If either side questions who moves first, or if names on the exchange lists cannot be verified in time, implementation will slip.”
October 9, 2025 at 2:00 PM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
Deep-dive with FirstPost into what #Trump's security commitment to #Qatar means, legally, for the #Gulf, for the US role as a protector in the region and the pivot to Asia
youtu.be/evnlNR6dUXQ
Trump's Defence Commitment to Qatar - A new pivot to the Gulf?
YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg
youtu.be
October 3, 2025 at 4:29 PM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
For Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, the directive "turns attacks on Doha into problems for Washington".

"For the region, it restores a measure of deterrence but leaves the United States with ample discretion over how to act," he added.
www.barrons.com/news/what-tr...
What Trump's Qatar Security Pledge Means For Mideast
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order this week vowing to defend Qatar against attacks, following Israeli air strikes targeting Hamas leaders in Doha.
www.barrons.com
October 3, 2025 at 3:54 PM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"A phased plan should set conditions: recruitment of Palestinian police, milestones for districts handed over, timelines for drawdown, said Andreas Krieg.

"Otherwise, the ISF risks looking like an occupying army rather than a transitional stabilisation mission"
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
The missing detail in Trump's peace plan that could mean 'violence will persist'
The US president's peace plan for Gaza includes the creation of a temporary "International Stabilisation Force", but analysts say this will be a challenging task.
www.abc.net.au
October 2, 2025 at 7:35 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"This Executive Order is an unprecedented security commitment by the United States to a non-treaty ally, just falling short of an NATO Art. 5 commitment...The Trump administration wanted to give as firm an assurance as possible within the shortest time possible"
youtu.be/YhsWXssBs6s
"An unprecedented US commitment to Qatar's security"
YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg
youtu.be
October 1, 2025 at 3:39 PM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
“For #Hamas, the plan amounts to an existential threat”,
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social
said. “Yet Hamas has historically sought to amend rather than wholly reject proposals, the political leadership abroad could explore a partial acceptance of certain elements"
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/m...
Who is set to be on Trump’s Board of Peace? Blair named as part of Israel-Gaza plan
Tony Blair would have a central role in any post-war plans for the beleaguered Palestinian enclave laid out by Washington
www.independent.co.uk
September 30, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg
monicamarks.bsky.social
Sadly I agree w @andreaskrieg.bsky.social that this is the likeliest outcome. Extremists feeding off one another, to the detriment of all who’ve suffered most.

Palestinians in Gaza who never asked for Oct. 7, and Israeli hostages’ families betrayed by Bibi, have wanted a ceasefire for nearly 2 yrs.
September 30, 2025 at 10:17 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"Security in the #Gulf has long been based on a tributary logic, basically you pay someone else to take care of your protection,"
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social
said. "That mentality is beginning to shift after the attack on #Qatar" he acknowledges, "but only slowly."
www.dw.com/en/is-the-mi...
Is the Middle East about to get an 'Islamic NATO'? – DW – 09/25/2025
Israel's first-ever attack on a Gulf state is causing changes in Arab defense policies, with more calls for regional cooperation and common defense pacts. Some politicians have even called for an "Isl...
www.dw.com
September 25, 2025 at 9:13 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social however, warned that this “leaves him turning a blind eye to the risks that Israel may use ‘salami tactics’ - carving out security arrangements piece by piece until Syrian sovereignty in the south is permanently undermined”.
www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
How would an Israel-Syria security deal impact the Middle East?
If agreed, the US-brokered security pact could bolster Israel’s influence, constrain Syria’s sovereignty, and complicate other regional tensions
www.newarab.com
September 22, 2025 at 7:12 PM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
“#Israel’s threat to Turkiye is not conventional military aggression but rather the targeting of Turkish interests via indirect means,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, speaking about Ankara’s interests in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus.
www.aljazeera.com/features/202...
Is Turkiye Israel’s next target in the Middle East?
Following Israel’s Doha strikes, Ankara is increasingly on high alert over Israel’s regional ambitions.
www.aljazeera.com
September 21, 2025 at 10:38 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
My new piece✍️
"The return of the Arab–Israeli conflict is not just about framing discourse. It is about a dangerous new reality that will likely spark a period of confrontation where wars over narratives can easily spill into the military domain"
www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-ret...
The Return of the Arab–Israeli Conflict
The fallout from Israel’s strike on Qatar drags the region back into the dangerous early stages of the Arab–Israeli conflict.
www.andreaskrieg.com
September 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
“Qataris always had the ability to reach out to any actor and engage them, including Hamas or the Taliban, as they knew domestically that the home front is always safe,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social.
observer.co.uk/news/interna...
observer.co.uk
September 16, 2025 at 7:58 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
My piece ✍️ on how Israel's strike on Qatar fundamentally challenges long-held strategic assumptions in the Gulf

In a transactional post-US order, the #Gulf states need develop more strategic autonomy & use their bargaining power also with the US
amwaj.media/en/article/i...
How Israeli strikes are compelling shift in Gulf security thinking
The Gulf has long been a geo-strategic borderland between east and west, the global north and south. It sits at the crossroads of critical energy supplies, maritime trade and ideological confrontation...
amwaj.media
September 11, 2025 at 9:25 AM
andreaskrieg.bsky.social
The strike "will also put further strain on US-Qatar relations, which is exactly what Israel wants to do", said
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social

"It wants to drive a wedge between Qatar and the United States."
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
Israeli strikes shake quiet Qatar, strain US ties
Ahmed was in a university lecture when he heard the bangs: loud explosions from unprecedented Israeli air strikes targeting Hamas that shattered Qatar's peace and put the wealthy Gulf region on edge.
www.france24.com
September 10, 2025 at 4:48 PM