🇷🇺🇨🇳Russia-China CNPC-Gazprom deal has potential to shift global #LNG balance after 2030. 35 mtpa LNG demand at stake. After peak of long-term contracts new PoS #natgas pipeline can fill gap demand vs contracts emerging post-2030. Good bargaining chip for Chinese negotiators.

Simple look at #Eurostat trade statstics is enough to gauge the order of magnitude of the 250 bn USD ambition in latest 𝗨𝗦-𝗘𝗨 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝗹. 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 In 2024 around 70 bn€ worth of fossils trade from USA to EU. Bring it to 250 bn $ (~215 bn €) needs a heavy lift.

So far ICIS ship-tracking data has #LNG traffic through #StraitofHormuz going on as usual. Some vessels pass the strait. We count around 10 ballast vessels South East of the strait before entering the Persian Gulf. That's a common picture. #ONGT @relxhq.bsky.social

Asia by far more affected by #StraitofHormuz closure compared to Europe. Around 87% of Qatar 🇶🇦 + Emirates 🇦🇪 #LNG goes to Asian destinations.

💥Iran could shut #StraitofHormuz after US attacks. Parliament endorses but final go is with supreme 🇮🇷 leader. A closure of the critical strait would be very consequential for global markets. Chokepoint cuts 20% of global #LNG #gas from Qatar🇶🇦+ Emirates 🇦🇪 and 20 mbd #oil.

Decisive European #natgas week:
📜6 May, @EU_Commission Russia phase-out 2027.
📅7 May @Europarl_EN plenary on EU gas #storage, vote 8 May.
📅9 May Swiss Court rule on @NordStream2 debt. Bankruptcy imminent.
@relxhq.bsky.social ICIS data: US #LNG grows to 25% in Europe, Russia below 10% in April 2025.

🇩🇪 Government in sight: for #energy markets no big surprise. Climate 2045 ambition maintained with push for #CCUS. Lower #electricity prices, one bidding zone, new capacity mechanism, grid-friendly renewable support. 20GW new #natgas plants, scrap of storage levy, biogas revival.

European #natgas: who let the bears out?👉Obvious strong correlation price vs speculation.

🐻Bearish drivers:
· Weather triggered spec sell-off
· Possible return of Russian gas
· Flex EU storage targets
· No EU Russia sanctions
📈Expect markets to correct this week after an overly strong sell-off.

🇷🇺 Russia-EU 🇪🇺 Hard time for #natgas pipes but open gates for #LNG. Transshipment sanctions start March 2025 but direct imports remain legal. As Poland takes over @consilium.europa.eu Presidency other measures might follow in coordination with @ec.europa.eu. @relxhq.bsky.social ICIS has the data.

ICIS world #LNG 2024 data: Supply strongly (60%) concentrated on USA/Australia/Qatar. Demand is more diverse but 60% in S & E Asia. China overtook Japan in 2023, set to stay top offtaker for years. If you group EU they are first consumer but with volatile intake. #ONGT @relxhq.bsky.social

In 2024 the #Ukraine transit is mainly used to supply Central Europe with #natgas. Two-thirds of consumption in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary is covered through imports from Ukraine. Storage & #LNG are short-term alternatives. With the end of Ukraine transit flows on 1 Jan 2025 storage & LNG are key.