Dan Fried
@ambdanfried.bsky.social
Veteran diplomat now with the Atlantic Council. America’s values & interests are indivisible, as Lincoln taught us. Believer in a Free World strategy, informed by tactical realism and strategic determination.
Reposted by Dan Fried
President Trump’s shifts on the #RussiaUkraineWar baffle Ukraine and its neighbors concerned about Putin’s aggression toward Europe.
@ambdanfried.bsky.social examines lessons from history to “make sense of current turmoil.”
@ambdanfried.bsky.social examines lessons from history to “make sense of current turmoil.”
Roosevelt’s Weak Hand and Trump’s Strong One in Eastern and Central Europe: Will Trump Play His Good Cards?
While the president hasn't fully sided with Putin, he hasn't used his favorable strategic position to end Russia's war on Ukraine.
www.justsecurity.org
October 22, 2025 at 12:55 PM
President Trump’s shifts on the #RussiaUkraineWar baffle Ukraine and its neighbors concerned about Putin’s aggression toward Europe.
@ambdanfried.bsky.social examines lessons from history to “make sense of current turmoil.”
@ambdanfried.bsky.social examines lessons from history to “make sense of current turmoil.”
Good that JD Vance shows exasperation w/Kremlin stonewalling on Ukraine. Better still if the US acts to increase pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine, which it can.
x.com/wartranslate...
x.com/wartranslate...
x.com
September 28, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Good that JD Vance shows exasperation w/Kremlin stonewalling on Ukraine. Better still if the US acts to increase pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine, which it can.
x.com/wartranslate...
x.com/wartranslate...
Reposted by Dan Fried
Always read @ambdanfried.bsky.social for nuanced, sober, historically-informed, pragmatic analysis that doesn't skimp on values or justice either.
Here's his latest on how the #Russia-Ukraine war could end and, crucially, what security for #Urkaine really means in practice:
👇
Here's his latest on how the #Russia-Ukraine war could end and, crucially, what security for #Urkaine really means in practice:
👇
US policy is a roller coaster. But after yesterday’s WH meetings, there is a path to greater security for Ukraine, the most critical part of ending Russia’s war of aggression.
www.justsecurity.org/119273/trump...
www.justsecurity.org/119273/trump...
Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?
Getting to any deal between Ukraine & Russia will require the United States & Europe to stand by Ukrainians & stare down Russia's demands.
www.justsecurity.org
August 19, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Always read @ambdanfried.bsky.social for nuanced, sober, historically-informed, pragmatic analysis that doesn't skimp on values or justice either.
Here's his latest on how the #Russia-Ukraine war could end and, crucially, what security for #Urkaine really means in practice:
👇
Here's his latest on how the #Russia-Ukraine war could end and, crucially, what security for #Urkaine really means in practice:
👇
Reposted by Dan Fried
3/3 Link to @ambdanfried.bsky.social's essay at @justsecurity.org
Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?
Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?
Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?
Getting to any deal between Ukraine & Russia will require the United States & Europe to stand by Ukrainians & stare down Russia's demands.
www.justsecurity.org
August 20, 2025 at 2:39 PM
3/3 Link to @ambdanfried.bsky.social's essay at @justsecurity.org
Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?
Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?
Reposted by Dan Fried
1/3 A revealing twist in the Ukraine diplomacy.
On the left:
On Tuesday, @ambdanfried.bsky.social anticipated that Witkoff may have missed a deceptive offering by Putin on security guarantees.
On the right:
On Wednesday, @antongerashchenko.bsky.social identifies the Russian move.
On the left:
On Tuesday, @ambdanfried.bsky.social anticipated that Witkoff may have missed a deceptive offering by Putin on security guarantees.
On the right:
On Wednesday, @antongerashchenko.bsky.social identifies the Russian move.
August 20, 2025 at 2:35 PM
1/3 A revealing twist in the Ukraine diplomacy.
On the left:
On Tuesday, @ambdanfried.bsky.social anticipated that Witkoff may have missed a deceptive offering by Putin on security guarantees.
On the right:
On Wednesday, @antongerashchenko.bsky.social identifies the Russian move.
On the left:
On Tuesday, @ambdanfried.bsky.social anticipated that Witkoff may have missed a deceptive offering by Putin on security guarantees.
On the right:
On Wednesday, @antongerashchenko.bsky.social identifies the Russian move.
US policy is a roller coaster. But after yesterday’s WH meetings, there is a path to greater security for Ukraine, the most critical part of ending Russia’s war of aggression.
www.justsecurity.org/119273/trump...
www.justsecurity.org/119273/trump...
Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?
Getting to any deal between Ukraine & Russia will require the United States & Europe to stand by Ukrainians & stare down Russia's demands.
www.justsecurity.org
August 19, 2025 at 3:48 PM
US policy is a roller coaster. But after yesterday’s WH meetings, there is a path to greater security for Ukraine, the most critical part of ending Russia’s war of aggression.
www.justsecurity.org/119273/trump...
www.justsecurity.org/119273/trump...
Reposted by Dan Fried
A new version of realism is establishing itself in Washington. But two models from the past can reveal a better way forward, writes Daniel Fried.
Kissinger, Brzezinski, and the Promise of Realism
A cynical realism resonates today, but there is a model for fusing power and values.
foreignpolicy.com
August 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM
A new version of realism is establishing itself in Washington. But two models from the past can reveal a better way forward, writes Daniel Fried.
Reposted by Dan Fried
Trump’s Shift on #Ukraine and #Russia: @ambdanfried.bsky.social and @massdara.bsky.social explain what it means and what to look for, in conversation with Just Security’s @violagienger.bsky.social
#RussiaUkraineWar #sanctions
www.justsecurity.org/117252/podca...
#RussiaUkraineWar #sanctions
www.justsecurity.org/117252/podca...
Trump’s Shift on Ukraine and Russia
Viola Gienger is joined by Ambassador Daniel Fried and Dara Massicot to discuss Trump’s policy shift on Ukraine and its impact.
www.justsecurity.org
July 17, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Trump’s Shift on #Ukraine and #Russia: @ambdanfried.bsky.social and @massdara.bsky.social explain what it means and what to look for, in conversation with Just Security’s @violagienger.bsky.social
#RussiaUkraineWar #sanctions
www.justsecurity.org/117252/podca...
#RussiaUkraineWar #sanctions
www.justsecurity.org/117252/podca...
NATO’s Hague Summit Declaration reaffirms Article 5, notes the threat from Russia, commits Allies to 3.5% 1.5% defense spending by 2035, and reaffirms commitment to contribute to Ukraine’s defense. Not glorious but good enough. Sometimes that’s what you need.
www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...
www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...
The Hague Summit Declaration issued by NATO Heads of State and Government (2025)
www.nato.int
June 25, 2025 at 1:14 PM
NATO’s Hague Summit Declaration reaffirms Article 5, notes the threat from Russia, commits Allies to 3.5% 1.5% defense spending by 2035, and reaffirms commitment to contribute to Ukraine’s defense. Not glorious but good enough. Sometimes that’s what you need.
www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...
www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...
Reposted by Dan Fried
The Trump administration often dismisses #HumanRights as a serious factor in #ForeignPolicy.
@ambdanfried.bsky.social on history’s lessons about the risks such thinking poses to solidarity and strategic interests:
www.justsecurity.org/115191/trump...
@ambdanfried.bsky.social on history’s lessons about the risks such thinking poses to solidarity and strategic interests:
www.justsecurity.org/115191/trump...
Trump's Sidelining of Human Rights in Foreign Policy
Weakening the U.S. commitment to human rights and the tools to advance them undoubtedly will prove costly.
www.justsecurity.org
June 24, 2025 at 1:01 PM
The Trump administration often dismisses #HumanRights as a serious factor in #ForeignPolicy.
@ambdanfried.bsky.social on history’s lessons about the risks such thinking poses to solidarity and strategic interests:
www.justsecurity.org/115191/trump...
@ambdanfried.bsky.social on history’s lessons about the risks such thinking poses to solidarity and strategic interests:
www.justsecurity.org/115191/trump...
Reposted by Dan Fried
Amid pride over recent successful strikes against Russian targets, Ukrainians are realistic about what it will take to end the war – from them, Putin, and President Trump.
@ambdanfried.bsky.social reports from his latest trip to Ukraine:
www.justsecurity.org/114139/trump...
#RussiaUkraineWar
@ambdanfried.bsky.social reports from his latest trip to Ukraine:
www.justsecurity.org/114139/trump...
#RussiaUkraineWar
Can Trump Seize a Win in Ukraine?
It’s in Trump’s hands to deliver the logic of force: to rally the West, to back Ukraine, squeeze Russia, and set the stage for victory.
www.justsecurity.org
June 5, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Amid pride over recent successful strikes against Russian targets, Ukrainians are realistic about what it will take to end the war – from them, Putin, and President Trump.
@ambdanfried.bsky.social reports from his latest trip to Ukraine:
www.justsecurity.org/114139/trump...
#RussiaUkraineWar
@ambdanfried.bsky.social reports from his latest trip to Ukraine:
www.justsecurity.org/114139/trump...
#RussiaUkraineWar
Reposted by Dan Fried
WEDNESDAY 12-1pm ET @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer, & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org discuss the #DOS reorganization, #USAID, and more.
Unpack what’s happening, what’s at stake, and what lies ahead with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social
Zoom RSVP:
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...
Unpack what’s happening, what’s at stake, and what lies ahead with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social
Zoom RSVP:
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...
What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? - Reiss Center on Law and Security
Register here The State Department has released a reorganization plan that would usher in significant changes to the way the United States conducts its diplomacy and foreign assistance, at a time of...
www.lawandsecurity.org
May 13, 2025 at 3:59 PM
WEDNESDAY 12-1pm ET @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer, & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org discuss the #DOS reorganization, #USAID, and more.
Unpack what’s happening, what’s at stake, and what lies ahead with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social
Zoom RSVP:
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...
Unpack what’s happening, what’s at stake, and what lies ahead with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social
Zoom RSVP:
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...
Reposted by Dan Fried
The US & Europe were just getting a handle on how to reduce the influence of malign foreign information operations.
With the Trump administration’s retreat, can Europe step up more?
From @ambdanfried.bsky.social:
www.justsecurity.org/113163/is-us...
With the Trump administration’s retreat, can Europe step up more?
From @ambdanfried.bsky.social:
www.justsecurity.org/113163/is-us...
Is the U.S. Abandoning the Fight Against Foreign Information Operations?
The Trump administration's policy shift paves the way for foreign propaganda to flourish, leaving Europe to step into the breach.
www.justsecurity.org
May 13, 2025 at 12:53 PM
The US & Europe were just getting a handle on how to reduce the influence of malign foreign information operations.
With the Trump administration’s retreat, can Europe step up more?
From @ambdanfried.bsky.social:
www.justsecurity.org/113163/is-us...
With the Trump administration’s retreat, can Europe step up more?
From @ambdanfried.bsky.social:
www.justsecurity.org/113163/is-us...
Reposted by Dan Fried
What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance?
An important discussion with leading experts
@ambdanfried.bsky.social
Dafna Rand
Michael Schiffer
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
Co-hosted with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social
Weds May 14 | 12-1pm ET | Zoom
#USAID #DOS #diplomacy
An important discussion with leading experts
@ambdanfried.bsky.social
Dafna Rand
Michael Schiffer
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
Co-hosted with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social
Weds May 14 | 12-1pm ET | Zoom
#USAID #DOS #diplomacy
What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? - Reiss Center on Law and Security
Register here The State Department has released a reorganization plan that would usher in significant changes to the way the United States conducts its diplomacy and foreign assistance, at a time of...
www.lawandsecurity.org
May 9, 2025 at 4:04 PM
What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance?
An important discussion with leading experts
@ambdanfried.bsky.social
Dafna Rand
Michael Schiffer
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
Co-hosted with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social
Weds May 14 | 12-1pm ET | Zoom
#USAID #DOS #diplomacy
An important discussion with leading experts
@ambdanfried.bsky.social
Dafna Rand
Michael Schiffer
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
Co-hosted with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social
Weds May 14 | 12-1pm ET | Zoom
#USAID #DOS #diplomacy
Reposted by Dan Fried
Join us Wed. at noon! 🕛 Hear from @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org as they unpack the impact of the proposed State Dept. restructuring.
5/14 | 12-1pm | Zoom
Hosts: @rcls-nyu.bsky.social @justsecurity.org
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...
5/14 | 12-1pm | Zoom
Hosts: @rcls-nyu.bsky.social @justsecurity.org
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...
What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? - Reiss Center on Law and Security
Register here The State Department has released a reorganization plan that would usher in significant changes to the way the United States conducts its diplomacy and foreign assistance, at a time of...
www.lawandsecurity.org
May 12, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Join us Wed. at noon! 🕛 Hear from @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org as they unpack the impact of the proposed State Dept. restructuring.
5/14 | 12-1pm | Zoom
Hosts: @rcls-nyu.bsky.social @justsecurity.org
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...
5/14 | 12-1pm | Zoom
Hosts: @rcls-nyu.bsky.social @justsecurity.org
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...
Key Europeans, the US, & Ukraine converge around a push for a 30-day ceasefire between Ukraine & Russia. Will Putin blow it off again? If he does (or fakes & spins), will the West (incl. US) turn up the heat on Russia & send more arms to Ukraine?
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/w...
European Leaders Visit Kyiv and Press Russia for a 30-Day Cease-Fire
www.nytimes.com
May 10, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Key Europeans, the US, & Ukraine converge around a push for a 30-day ceasefire between Ukraine & Russia. Will Putin blow it off again? If he does (or fakes & spins), will the West (incl. US) turn up the heat on Russia & send more arms to Ukraine?
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/w...
There’s no good reason to trash the tools through which the US advances its interests by advancing its values. My take.
nationalinterest.org/feature/who-...
nationalinterest.org/feature/who-...
Who Will Speak for America?
NED, NDI, IRI, VOA, RFE/RL, Radio Marti, Radio Free Asia, and more were the instruments through which America advanced its interests by putting its back behind its values.
nationalinterest.org
May 9, 2025 at 4:10 PM
There’s no good reason to trash the tools through which the US advances its interests by advancing its values. My take.
nationalinterest.org/feature/who-...
nationalinterest.org/feature/who-...
A slow and immense shift: the US in the 1980s could not convince Europe to avoid dependence on Russian oil & gas. But Putin - in his aggression - has managed to do so.
Today, we take an important step towards Europe's energy independence.
With our Roadmap, we will complete the phasing out of all remaining Russian energy into our Union.
While ensuring stable supplies for businesses and consumers.
This is REPowerEU in action.
→ europa.eu/!gWYj97
With our Roadmap, we will complete the phasing out of all remaining Russian energy into our Union.
While ensuring stable supplies for businesses and consumers.
This is REPowerEU in action.
→ europa.eu/!gWYj97
May 6, 2025 at 3:55 PM
A slow and immense shift: the US in the 1980s could not convince Europe to avoid dependence on Russian oil & gas. But Putin - in his aggression - has managed to do so.
Reposted by Dan Fried
@ambdanfried.bsky.social lays out an option for the intense talks on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine:
A ceasefire roughly along existing front lines, with de facto recognition of Russian occupation, and Western forces providing security for Ukraine.
www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...
A ceasefire roughly along existing front lines, with de facto recognition of Russian occupation, and Western forces providing security for Ukraine.
www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...
How to Land the Emerging Deal on Peace for Ukraine
A ceasefire along existing lines, with de facto but not formal recognition of Russian occupation, plus security for Ukraine, could work.
www.justsecurity.org
April 30, 2025 at 12:46 PM
@ambdanfried.bsky.social lays out an option for the intense talks on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine:
A ceasefire roughly along existing front lines, with de facto recognition of Russian occupation, and Western forces providing security for Ukraine.
www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...
A ceasefire roughly along existing front lines, with de facto recognition of Russian occupation, and Western forces providing security for Ukraine.
www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...
How Trump can land the deal on Ukraine. A good-enough deal is emerging. Now it’s time to push Russia to get serious.
www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...
www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...
How to Land the Emerging Deal on Peace for Ukraine
A ceasefire along existing lines, with de facto but not formal recognition of Russian occupation, plus security for Ukraine, could work.
www.justsecurity.org
April 30, 2025 at 1:30 PM
How Trump can land the deal on Ukraine. A good-enough deal is emerging. Now it’s time to push Russia to get serious.
www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...
www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...
The worst US proposal for Ukraine is to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea. No NATO for Ukraine also bad. The first is not certain (yet) and there can be workarounds to the second. And there are some solid parts of the deal. Nothing set but things are in motion.
Talks to end the Russo-Ukraine War are in an intense phase. David Ignatius sums up the emerging potential deal. Am told it’s accurate.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Has Trump found a path to peace in Ukraine?
Security guarantees and other hard details remain, but there are signs of movement.
www.washingtonpost.com
April 25, 2025 at 6:25 PM
The worst US proposal for Ukraine is to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea. No NATO for Ukraine also bad. The first is not certain (yet) and there can be workarounds to the second. And there are some solid parts of the deal. Nothing set but things are in motion.
Talks to end the Russo-Ukraine War are in an intense phase. David Ignatius sums up the emerging potential deal. Am told it’s accurate.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Has Trump found a path to peace in Ukraine?
Security guarantees and other hard details remain, but there are signs of movement.
www.washingtonpost.com
April 25, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Talks to end the Russo-Ukraine War are in an intense phase. David Ignatius sums up the emerging potential deal. Am told it’s accurate.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...