The downside is that in its desperation, Moscow is willing to do (almost) anything to sustain the Chinese lifeline, ranging from helping Beijing’s nuclear buildup to providing access to key resources and critical military technologies. End🧵

These asymmetric motives impose a “floor” and “ceiling” effect on the relationship, creating strong incentives for Beijing to maintain an economic lifeline while also limiting its commitment to a fully fledged alliance with Moscow. (3/4)

I show that Moscow deepened its partnership to offset the costs of sustaining its growing confrontation with its neighbors and the West since 2014, while Beijing primarily engages to prop up the Putin regime. (2/4)