@almanactrader.bsky.social
Insight Session: Real Santa Claus Rally: Stocks & Crypto Year-End Seasonality on Thursday October 30, 2025 at 4:00 PM EDT. Register here: register.gotowebinar.com/register/788...
October 28, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Insight Session: Real Santa Claus Rally: Stocks & Crypto Year-End Seasonality on Thursday October 30, 2025 at 4:00 PM EDT. Register here: register.gotowebinar.com/register/788...
The new Almanac’s here!
Come get one at the Future Proof Festival on Huntington Beach CA Sunday-Wednesday.
I’ll be at the Wiley booth.
futureproofhq.com/festival/reg...
Come get one at the Future Proof Festival on Huntington Beach CA Sunday-Wednesday.
I’ll be at the Wiley booth.
futureproofhq.com/festival/reg...
September 5, 2025 at 10:52 PM
The new Almanac’s here!
Come get one at the Future Proof Festival on Huntington Beach CA Sunday-Wednesday.
I’ll be at the Wiley booth.
futureproofhq.com/festival/reg...
Come get one at the Future Proof Festival on Huntington Beach CA Sunday-Wednesday.
I’ll be at the Wiley booth.
futureproofhq.com/festival/reg...
NASDAQ Hot Julys & Later Buys. Every NASDAQ “Hot July” since 1971, except 1980 was followed by a retreat that averaged 5.8% from July’s close to a subsequent low in the second half of the year. Expecting pullback over next 2-3 months.
August 1, 2025 at 6:10 PM
NASDAQ Hot Julys & Later Buys. Every NASDAQ “Hot July” since 1971, except 1980 was followed by a retreat that averaged 5.8% from July’s close to a subsequent low in the second half of the year. Expecting pullback over next 2-3 months.
Market’s Summer Retreat has started around mid-July. Since 1990, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all negative from mid-July through the end of September. Full table here: www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
July 16, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Market’s Summer Retreat has started around mid-July. Since 1990, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all negative from mid-July through the end of September. Full table here: www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
Hope you can join my: Don’t Sell in May! Reposition Your Portfolio with These ETFs presentation @MoneyShow May 2025 Virtual Expo, May 21–22. I’ll be joined by many others including @StovallCFRA & @EricBalchunas It’s Free! Use this link www.moneyshow.com/expert/ed8d4...
May 16, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Hope you can join my: Don’t Sell in May! Reposition Your Portfolio with These ETFs presentation @MoneyShow May 2025 Virtual Expo, May 21–22. I’ll be joined by many others including @StovallCFRA & @EricBalchunas It’s Free! Use this link www.moneyshow.com/expert/ed8d4...
Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close.
Deadline Impact Fades.
1st half April no longer outperforms. Bullish all month long recent 21 years and post-election since 1950 w/some minor blips along the way jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/7791111...
Deadline Impact Fades.
1st half April no longer outperforms. Bullish all month long recent 21 years and post-election since 1950 w/some minor blips along the way jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/7791111...
March 26, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close.
Deadline Impact Fades.
1st half April no longer outperforms. Bullish all month long recent 21 years and post-election since 1950 w/some minor blips along the way jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/7791111...
Deadline Impact Fades.
1st half April no longer outperforms. Bullish all month long recent 21 years and post-election since 1950 w/some minor blips along the way jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/7791111...
April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good. NASDAQ’s 3 April post-election year declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/7790171...
March 25, 2025 at 7:36 PM
April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good. NASDAQ’s 3 April post-election year declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/7790171...
Can Luck O’ the Irish Stem the Tide? S&P 500 Up 23 of Last 31 St. Patrick’s Days with an average gain of 0.70%. Céad Míle Fáilte! After a challenging first half of March, the market could sure use some good luck to have any chance at a full-month gain. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
March 13, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Can Luck O’ the Irish Stem the Tide? S&P 500 Up 23 of Last 31 St. Patrick’s Days with an average gain of 0.70%. Céad Míle Fáilte! After a challenging first half of March, the market could sure use some good luck to have any chance at a full-month gain. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
March Madness Sets Up Ides of March Washout Bounce
Stormy March markets battered stocks 1st half of the month in recent years. 5300-5400 support in Sep low & last March highs area in play. Catalyst Trump, Fed, Congress, rates, inflation or geopolitics to trigger it.
Stormy March markets battered stocks 1st half of the month in recent years. 5300-5400 support in Sep low & last March highs area in play. Catalyst Trump, Fed, Congress, rates, inflation or geopolitics to trigger it.
March 10, 2025 at 10:24 PM
March Madness Sets Up Ides of March Washout Bounce
Stormy March markets battered stocks 1st half of the month in recent years. 5300-5400 support in Sep low & last March highs area in play. Catalyst Trump, Fed, Congress, rates, inflation or geopolitics to trigger it.
Stormy March markets battered stocks 1st half of the month in recent years. 5300-5400 support in Sep low & last March highs area in play. Catalyst Trump, Fed, Congress, rates, inflation or geopolitics to trigger it.
Trump Tariff Turmoil Post-Election Year Plunge.
Deeper look from member’s webinar post-elect yr perf under new republican admins. Looks like Pres Trump taking page out of our 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac 4-year cycle playbook. Detail of p28 table.
Deeper look from member’s webinar post-elect yr perf under new republican admins. Looks like Pres Trump taking page out of our 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac 4-year cycle playbook. Detail of p28 table.
March 6, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Trump Tariff Turmoil Post-Election Year Plunge.
Deeper look from member’s webinar post-elect yr perf under new republican admins. Looks like Pres Trump taking page out of our 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac 4-year cycle playbook. Detail of p28 table.
Deeper look from member’s webinar post-elect yr perf under new republican admins. Looks like Pres Trump taking page out of our 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac 4-year cycle playbook. Detail of p28 table.
Post-Election Years Plague Republicans.
Fear on The Street is palpable. I’ve warned all year volatility expected esp. Q1. New rep admins get down brass tacks creating uncertainty. Trump 2.0 faster than ever. More on members webinar tmrw… www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
Fear on The Street is palpable. I’ve warned all year volatility expected esp. Q1. New rep admins get down brass tacks creating uncertainty. Trump 2.0 faster than ever. More on members webinar tmrw… www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
March 4, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Post-Election Years Plague Republicans.
Fear on The Street is palpable. I’ve warned all year volatility expected esp. Q1. New rep admins get down brass tacks creating uncertainty. Trump 2.0 faster than ever. More on members webinar tmrw… www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
Fear on The Street is palpable. I’ve warned all year volatility expected esp. Q1. New rep admins get down brass tacks creating uncertainty. Trump 2.0 faster than ever. More on members webinar tmrw… www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
March 1st trading day bullish.
DJIA up 51x in 75 years. Recent 25-year track record strong. S&P 500 best, up 68.0% of times. NASDAQ avg 0.65% www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
DJIA up 51x in 75 years. Recent 25-year track record strong. S&P 500 best, up 68.0% of times. NASDAQ avg 0.65% www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
February 28, 2025 at 7:23 PM
March 1st trading day bullish.
DJIA up 51x in 75 years. Recent 25-year track record strong. S&P 500 best, up 68.0% of times. NASDAQ avg 0.65% www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
DJIA up 51x in 75 years. Recent 25-year track record strong. S&P 500 best, up 68.0% of times. NASDAQ avg 0.65% www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
Beware The Ides Of March.
Rather turbulent in recent years w/ wild fluctuations & large gains and losses, March has been taking some mean end-of-quarter hits. Post-election years open strong then fade midmonth. Recent years trend lower early then rally after the ides. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
Rather turbulent in recent years w/ wild fluctuations & large gains and losses, March has been taking some mean end-of-quarter hits. Post-election years open strong then fade midmonth. Recent years trend lower early then rally after the ides. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
February 26, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Beware The Ides Of March.
Rather turbulent in recent years w/ wild fluctuations & large gains and losses, March has been taking some mean end-of-quarter hits. Post-election years open strong then fade midmonth. Recent years trend lower early then rally after the ides. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
Rather turbulent in recent years w/ wild fluctuations & large gains and losses, March has been taking some mean end-of-quarter hits. Post-election years open strong then fade midmonth. Recent years trend lower early then rally after the ides. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
March Not as Strong in Post-Election Years. As part of the Best Months, March has been a solid performer. Post-election year payments to the Piper have exacted a toll on March, especially NASDAQ dropping from +0.8% to -0.1%. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
February 25, 2025 at 10:33 PM
March Not as Strong in Post-Election Years. As part of the Best Months, March has been a solid performer. Post-election year payments to the Piper have exacted a toll on March, especially NASDAQ dropping from +0.8% to -0.1%. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
A Time For Market Patience Turn Turn Turn
Buying the dip? Feels like correx in the works. Feb & Post-elect yr Q1 weakness in charts. S&P ATH last wk on poor breadth. @realDonaldTrump shaking things up like never b4. Not down 5% yet x R2K retest of elect gap only 6% $SPX drop
Buying the dip? Feels like correx in the works. Feb & Post-elect yr Q1 weakness in charts. S&P ATH last wk on poor breadth. @realDonaldTrump shaking things up like never b4. Not down 5% yet x R2K retest of elect gap only 6% $SPX drop
February 24, 2025 at 9:30 PM
A Time For Market Patience Turn Turn Turn
Buying the dip? Feels like correx in the works. Feb & Post-elect yr Q1 weakness in charts. S&P ATH last wk on poor breadth. @realDonaldTrump shaking things up like never b4. Not down 5% yet x R2K retest of elect gap only 6% $SPX drop
Buying the dip? Feels like correx in the works. Feb & Post-elect yr Q1 weakness in charts. S&P ATH last wk on poor breadth. @realDonaldTrump shaking things up like never b4. Not down 5% yet x R2K retest of elect gap only 6% $SPX drop
Usual February Weak Trading
Stocks are suffering from typical midwinter struggles. The market tends to rally the first half of February, but gains tend to fade after mid-month, and even sooner in post-election years.
Stocks are suffering from typical midwinter struggles. The market tends to rally the first half of February, but gains tend to fade after mid-month, and even sooner in post-election years.
February 11, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Usual February Weak Trading
Stocks are suffering from typical midwinter struggles. The market tends to rally the first half of February, but gains tend to fade after mid-month, and even sooner in post-election years.
Stocks are suffering from typical midwinter struggles. The market tends to rally the first half of February, but gains tend to fade after mid-month, and even sooner in post-election years.
Positive January Barometer Greatest Outperformance
No other month signals as much upside for the year when it’s up than January. Since 1938, years with a positive January outperformed a down January by 10.6%. Over the following 12 months, the outperformance grew to 11.3%. $SPY
No other month signals as much upside for the year when it’s up than January. Since 1938, years with a positive January outperformed a down January by 10.6%. Over the following 12 months, the outperformance grew to 11.3%. $SPY
February 7, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Positive January Barometer Greatest Outperformance
No other month signals as much upside for the year when it’s up than January. Since 1938, years with a positive January outperformed a down January by 10.6%. Over the following 12 months, the outperformance grew to 11.3%. $SPY
No other month signals as much upside for the year when it’s up than January. Since 1938, years with a positive January outperformed a down January by 10.6%. Over the following 12 months, the outperformance grew to 11.3%. $SPY
Bitcoin $BTC tracking seasonal trend since full year after CME futures began trading. Set up for Feb-May bull run. Picked up my $IBIT position 10/31.
February 5, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Bitcoin $BTC tracking seasonal trend since full year after CME futures began trading. Set up for Feb-May bull run. Picked up my $IBIT position 10/31.
Santa Claus Fails To Call, January Trifecta Update & 2025 Outlook. Join me live at MoneyShow’s 2025 Portfolio Playbook Virtual Expo Jan 29 10:40am ET. www.moneyshow.com/expert/ed8d4...
January 28, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Santa Claus Fails To Call, January Trifecta Update & 2025 Outlook. Join me live at MoneyShow’s 2025 Portfolio Playbook Virtual Expo Jan 29 10:40am ET. www.moneyshow.com/expert/ed8d4...
2021-2024 Textbook 4-Year Cycle in The Books.
Cycle reset to track 2025-2028. Traditional 1st-year slump hasn’t materialized since Reagan’s reelection in 1984. Cycle compression makes 1st years like 3rd years. Incumbents try to hang on to slim margins in the midterms.
Cycle reset to track 2025-2028. Traditional 1st-year slump hasn’t materialized since Reagan’s reelection in 1984. Cycle compression makes 1st years like 3rd years. Incumbents try to hang on to slim margins in the midterms.
January 24, 2025 at 6:40 PM
2021-2024 Textbook 4-Year Cycle in The Books.
Cycle reset to track 2025-2028. Traditional 1st-year slump hasn’t materialized since Reagan’s reelection in 1984. Cycle compression makes 1st years like 3rd years. Incumbents try to hang on to slim margins in the midterms.
Cycle reset to track 2025-2028. Traditional 1st-year slump hasn’t materialized since Reagan’s reelection in 1984. Cycle compression makes 1st years like 3rd years. Incumbents try to hang on to slim margins in the midterms.
Presidential Cycle Year 1 Best Since 1985 Bullish For 2025.
Stock Trader’s Almanac p132 shows post-election notorious history as worst. Much improved since WWII & best since 1985 averaging 17.2%. Bull continues in 2025 up 8-12%, but bumpier ride than past 2 years.
Stock Trader’s Almanac p132 shows post-election notorious history as worst. Much improved since WWII & best since 1985 averaging 17.2%. Bull continues in 2025 up 8-12%, but bumpier ride than past 2 years.
January 23, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Presidential Cycle Year 1 Best Since 1985 Bullish For 2025.
Stock Trader’s Almanac p132 shows post-election notorious history as worst. Much improved since WWII & best since 1985 averaging 17.2%. Bull continues in 2025 up 8-12%, but bumpier ride than past 2 years.
Stock Trader’s Almanac p132 shows post-election notorious history as worst. Much improved since WWII & best since 1985 averaging 17.2%. Bull continues in 2025 up 8-12%, but bumpier ride than past 2 years.
Market Bounce After Dec Low Breach Encouraging.
DJIA closed below Dec low (p36 STA 2025) 1/10/25 39th x since 1950 can signal more weakness. Best years w/ down Santa Claus Rally, Dec low breach & +First Five Days&/or Jan Barometer. Quick rebound in line w/25 forecast base case 8-12% best 12-20%.
DJIA closed below Dec low (p36 STA 2025) 1/10/25 39th x since 1950 can signal more weakness. Best years w/ down Santa Claus Rally, Dec low breach & +First Five Days&/or Jan Barometer. Quick rebound in line w/25 forecast base case 8-12% best 12-20%.
January 17, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Market Bounce After Dec Low Breach Encouraging.
DJIA closed below Dec low (p36 STA 2025) 1/10/25 39th x since 1950 can signal more weakness. Best years w/ down Santa Claus Rally, Dec low breach & +First Five Days&/or Jan Barometer. Quick rebound in line w/25 forecast base case 8-12% best 12-20%.
DJIA closed below Dec low (p36 STA 2025) 1/10/25 39th x since 1950 can signal more weakness. Best years w/ down Santa Claus Rally, Dec low breach & +First Five Days&/or Jan Barometer. Quick rebound in line w/25 forecast base case 8-12% best 12-20%.
Stocks Wrestle with Rates Typical January Action So Far
Upbeat jobs data fanned inflation fears rate cut reality. people working & making money is a good thing. But the market continues to wrestle with rising 10-year yields & policy uncertainties as a new administration prepares to take over in DC
Upbeat jobs data fanned inflation fears rate cut reality. people working & making money is a good thing. But the market continues to wrestle with rising 10-year yields & policy uncertainties as a new administration prepares to take over in DC
January 10, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Stocks Wrestle with Rates Typical January Action So Far
Upbeat jobs data fanned inflation fears rate cut reality. people working & making money is a good thing. But the market continues to wrestle with rising 10-year yields & policy uncertainties as a new administration prepares to take over in DC
Upbeat jobs data fanned inflation fears rate cut reality. people working & making money is a good thing. But the market continues to wrestle with rising 10-year yields & policy uncertainties as a new administration prepares to take over in DC
Looking forward to joining the incomparable @cvpayne at 2pm on @FoxBusiness. We’ll discuss Santa Claus Rally’s fail, my 2025 outlook, post-election year patterns and some stock picks. Hope you can tune in…
January 7, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Looking forward to joining the incomparable @cvpayne at 2pm on @FoxBusiness. We’ll discuss Santa Claus Rally’s fail, my 2025 outlook, post-election year patterns and some stock picks. Hope you can tune in…
Small caps historically best ahead of Christmas. Russell 2000 up over 69% of the time each day. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...
December 20, 2024 at 8:56 PM
Small caps historically best ahead of Christmas. Russell 2000 up over 69% of the time each day. www.tumblr.com/jeffhirsch/7...