Shortly afterwards, informed sources explained, a decision was made to evacuate the country through the same route that had been used to enter the Syrian conflict back in 2013.

But Hezbollah’s deployment turned out to be far smaller, with commanders quickly concluding that a withdrawal was in order after an operational assessment, Amwaj media has learned.

Accounts of what happened next are conflicting. Initially, insiders charged that up to 2,000 members of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force were to be deployed for one last stand.

“The war had become too costly to continue,” the source explained, saying that Hezbollah “has serious shortcomings…it no longer has the resources to fight effectively and cannot acquire advanced weapons to shift the war’s trajectory.”

According to the senior regional diplomatic source, the truce—which went into effect as HTS launched its offensive—was an unavoidable outcome due to the unsustainability of Hezbollah’s confrontation with Israel.

The role of Hezbollah, and specifically its ceasefire with Israel, is also crucial to understanding the story of the downfall of Assad.

In this context, the Quds Force is said to have established contact with HTS, securing assurances amid the collapse of the Syrian army that Shiite Muslims and Shiite shrines as well as the Iranian embassy would be left untouched.

The senior regional diplomatic source explained that despite the Syrian government’s urgent request for Iranian support, logistical constraints and operational risks—including potential Israeli airstrikes—made such assistance impractical.

Assad is said to have expressed anger toward his army, describing it as an unreliable collection of “thieves.”

While Assad’s Russian host and counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had promised assistance, the senior regional source suggested that this support was limited to ensuring a safe exit. Given that Assad and his wife are now apparently in Russia, this promise has been kept—at least for now.

First and foremost, Russia played a pivotal role as events unfolded. According to one high-ranking regional diplomatic source, Assad’s recent visit to Moscow was a turning point.

In brief, the sudden and unforeseen downfall of Assad l signals the end of the Iran-led Axis as it once was, along with the significant leverage it had amassed in the Levant