Alex V
@alexvagus.bsky.social
**The greatest threats to freedom wear the crown of dictatorship. The downfall of society begins with a tyrant. Yet, throughout history, they fall prey to justice**
I oppose dictators. If you side with them, don’t expect me to stand by you.
I oppose dictators. If you side with them, don’t expect me to stand by you.
Pretty much. They are rejecting the entire Enlightenment project. But it’s fighting a losing war against a cultural immune system that’s now centuries old. Once the human mind has tasted reason and rights, obedience feels like slavery.
November 11, 2025 at 5:29 AM
Pretty much. They are rejecting the entire Enlightenment project. But it’s fighting a losing war against a cultural immune system that’s now centuries old. Once the human mind has tasted reason and rights, obedience feels like slavery.
Exactly. They never say ‘authoritarian’ it’s always ‘post-liberal,’ ‘traditional,’ or ‘national renewal.’ Same product, new label.
November 11, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Exactly. They never say ‘authoritarian’ it’s always ‘post-liberal,’ ‘traditional,’ or ‘national renewal.’ Same product, new label.
They romanticize a pre-modern hierarchy — men ruling households, clergy defining morality, elites governing without accountability.
If they had their way, women would be re-domesticated politically and economically, framed as “keepers of virtue” rather than independent citizens.
If they had their way, women would be re-domesticated politically and economically, framed as “keepers of virtue” rather than independent citizens.
November 11, 2025 at 5:07 AM
They romanticize a pre-modern hierarchy — men ruling households, clergy defining morality, elites governing without accountability.
If they had their way, women would be re-domesticated politically and economically, framed as “keepers of virtue” rather than independent citizens.
If they had their way, women would be re-domesticated politically and economically, framed as “keepers of virtue” rather than independent citizens.
they view the American Revolution, liberal democracy, and the Bill of Rights as mistakes. They want to roll back the entire experiment of self-government.
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
they view the American Revolution, liberal democracy, and the Bill of Rights as mistakes. They want to roll back the entire experiment of self-government.
Looks like you are running out of bubble gum and ready to … (for context there is an 80s movie “they live”)
November 11, 2025 at 2:10 AM
Looks like you are running out of bubble gum and ready to … (for context there is an 80s movie “they live”)
Immediate effect: Small downward adjustment (uncertainty premium) –3 pp until we see outcomes.
Reversal clause: If the push stalls or is repelled over 7–10 days, flip to +3 (failed main effort = costly exhaustion signal).
Reversal clause: If the push stalls or is repelled over 7–10 days, flip to +3 (failed main effort = costly exhaustion signal).
November 10, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Immediate effect: Small downward adjustment (uncertainty premium) –3 pp until we see outcomes.
Reversal clause: If the push stalls or is repelled over 7–10 days, flip to +3 (failed main effort = costly exhaustion signal).
Reversal clause: If the push stalls or is repelled over 7–10 days, flip to +3 (failed main effort = costly exhaustion signal).
Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Force Concentration / Major Offensive
why it matters: Raises near-term breach risk and bombardment intensity; increases munition and manpower burn. Outcome-dependent: breakthrough vs. costly stall.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Force Concentration / Major Offensive
why it matters: Raises near-term breach risk and bombardment intensity; increases munition and manpower burn. Outcome-dependent: breakthrough vs. costly stall.
November 10, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Force Concentration / Major Offensive
why it matters: Raises near-term breach risk and bombardment intensity; increases munition and manpower burn. Outcome-dependent: breakthrough vs. costly stall.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Force Concentration / Major Offensive
why it matters: Raises near-term breach risk and bombardment intensity; increases munition and manpower burn. Outcome-dependent: breakthrough vs. costly stall.
Net Effect: ≈ +1 pp ( for diplomatic isolation and political overextension) bringing the total forecast to ≈ 93 % that Putin is out by Dec 2026.
November 10, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Net Effect: ≈ +1 pp ( for diplomatic isolation and political overextension) bringing the total forecast to ≈ 93 % that Putin is out by Dec 2026.
Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Diplomatic
Sub-category: Strategic Inflexibility
why it matters: Public confirmation that Russia's war aims remain maximalist and genocidal. This removes diplomatic offramps and commits the regime to indefinite warfare, amplifying domestic strain and isolation
Category: Diplomatic
Sub-category: Strategic Inflexibility
why it matters: Public confirmation that Russia's war aims remain maximalist and genocidal. This removes diplomatic offramps and commits the regime to indefinite warfare, amplifying domestic strain and isolation
November 10, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Diplomatic
Sub-category: Strategic Inflexibility
why it matters: Public confirmation that Russia's war aims remain maximalist and genocidal. This removes diplomatic offramps and commits the regime to indefinite warfare, amplifying domestic strain and isolation
Category: Diplomatic
Sub-category: Strategic Inflexibility
why it matters: Public confirmation that Russia's war aims remain maximalist and genocidal. This removes diplomatic offramps and commits the regime to indefinite warfare, amplifying domestic strain and isolation
That’s assuming he makes it past the midterms, the indictments, and a cheeseburger
November 10, 2025 at 5:38 AM
That’s assuming he makes it past the midterms, the indictments, and a cheeseburger
Ha, the poor guy doesn’t know he is the speaker.
November 10, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Ha, the poor guy doesn’t know he is the speaker.
… And when January rolls around and the credits expire, you will look “shocked” that the grifter didn’t follow through — as if that wasn’t the entire point.
November 10, 2025 at 2:47 AM
… And when January rolls around and the credits expire, you will look “shocked” that the grifter didn’t follow through — as if that wasn’t the entire point.
What they actually did tonight was trade a tangible policy (ACA credits in the bill) for an intangible pledge from a man with a decades-long record of breaking every deal he’s ever made when it suited him. It’s political malpractice.
November 10, 2025 at 2:36 AM
What they actually did tonight was trade a tangible policy (ACA credits in the bill) for an intangible pledge from a man with a decades-long record of breaking every deal he’s ever made when it suited him. It’s political malpractice.
The same year America might file for Chapter 11, assuming he makes it past the midterms, the indictments, and a cheeseburger before divine intervention between fries.
November 10, 2025 at 1:46 AM
The same year America might file for Chapter 11, assuming he makes it past the midterms, the indictments, and a cheeseburger before divine intervention between fries.
A promise from the pathological liar, good luck with that.
November 9, 2025 at 10:23 PM
A promise from the pathological liar, good luck with that.
I guess “Practice makes perfect” has whole new meaning nowadays.
November 9, 2025 at 10:04 PM
I guess “Practice makes perfect” has whole new meaning nowadays.
Net Effect: ≈ +2 pp (slightly strengthens resilience and control factors). +2 percentage points, bringing the total forecast to ≈ 92 % that Putin is out by Dec 2026.
November 9, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Net Effect: ≈ +2 pp (slightly strengthens resilience and control factors). +2 percentage points, bringing the total forecast to ≈ 92 % that Putin is out by Dec 2026.
Superforecasting Model Note:
Category: Military
Sub-category: Command & Control Resilience
Why it matters: Demonstrates structured defense planning and layered contingency design. Indicates strategic foresight and morale stability at senior command level.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Command & Control Resilience
Why it matters: Demonstrates structured defense planning and layered contingency design. Indicates strategic foresight and morale stability at senior command level.
November 9, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Superforecasting Model Note:
Category: Military
Sub-category: Command & Control Resilience
Why it matters: Demonstrates structured defense planning and layered contingency design. Indicates strategic foresight and morale stability at senior command level.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Command & Control Resilience
Why it matters: Demonstrates structured defense planning and layered contingency design. Indicates strategic foresight and morale stability at senior command level.
Trump’s fake ‘Obama royalties’ claim is not random — it’s projection. He’s floating a lie to test outrage before doing the same himself. He accuses others first so his own grift looks normal later — corruption disguised as foresight.
November 9, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Trump’s fake ‘Obama royalties’ claim is not random — it’s projection. He’s floating a lie to test outrage before doing the same himself. He accuses others first so his own grift looks normal later — corruption disguised as foresight.
Now we know the replica is in the White House
November 8, 2025 at 4:58 AM
Now we know the replica is in the White House
That’s fair, it’s all inference until we see her reasoning. The point stands: whatever the intent, the effect is identical. The people who needed food didn’t get it
November 8, 2025 at 4:36 AM
That’s fair, it’s all inference until we see her reasoning. The point stands: whatever the intent, the effect is identical. The people who needed food didn’t get it
I get the theory, but that’s speculation. What we actually know is the stay freezes benefits and gives Trump a win for now. If this is strategy, it’s a painful one to watch. Trump’s DOJ has turned hunger into leverage, and the Court just helped them play it
November 8, 2025 at 3:49 AM
I get the theory, but that’s speculation. What we actually know is the stay freezes benefits and gives Trump a win for now. If this is strategy, it’s a painful one to watch. Trump’s DOJ has turned hunger into leverage, and the Court just helped them play it
Exactly, the Court is too busy for 7,980 ordinary cases but never too busy for whatever crisis Trump invents this week. Taking this one was a choice, not an obligation. They always seem to find time for Trump’s emergencies, never for everyone else’s.
November 8, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Exactly, the Court is too busy for 7,980 ordinary cases but never too busy for whatever crisis Trump invents this week. Taking this one was a choice, not an obligation. They always seem to find time for Trump’s emergencies, never for everyone else’s.
Sure, it’s not just optics—but the only reason this fight exists is because Trump turned feeding Americans into a power struggle. The courts aren’t reviewing law; they’re cleaning up his mess
November 8, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Sure, it’s not just optics—but the only reason this fight exists is because Trump turned feeding Americans into a power struggle. The courts aren’t reviewing law; they’re cleaning up his mess
Process matters, but people matter more. If the law can’t recognize that feeding the hungry outweighs bureaucratic neatness, then it’s the process that’s broken, not the people
November 8, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Process matters, but people matter more. If the law can’t recognize that feeding the hungry outweighs bureaucratic neatness, then it’s the process that’s broken, not the people