alex hayes
@alexpghayes.com
postdoc @ stanford econ + incoming assistant prof @ oregon state statistics. networks, causal inference, contagion, measurement error, #rstats. he/him
https://www.alexpghayes.com
https://www.alexpghayes.com
I missed that an expanded version of Philip Stark's "Pay No Attention to the Model Behind the Curtain" was published a few years back
Needless to say it's very good and worth a read
link.springer.com/10.1007/s000...
Needless to say it's very good and worth a read
link.springer.com/10.1007/s000...
October 18, 2025 at 5:25 PM
I missed that an expanded version of Philip Stark's "Pay No Attention to the Model Behind the Curtain" was published a few years back
Needless to say it's very good and worth a read
link.springer.com/10.1007/s000...
Needless to say it's very good and worth a read
link.springer.com/10.1007/s000...
~~ making sense of academic statistics ~~
i wrote about the confusing relationship between statistics and data analysis, and also about how statistics relates to science
#statistics #rstats #datascience
www.alexpghayes.com/post/making-...
i wrote about the confusing relationship between statistics and data analysis, and also about how statistics relates to science
#statistics #rstats #datascience
www.alexpghayes.com/post/making-...
July 15, 2025 at 8:15 PM
~~ making sense of academic statistics ~~
i wrote about the confusing relationship between statistics and data analysis, and also about how statistics relates to science
#statistics #rstats #datascience
www.alexpghayes.com/post/making-...
i wrote about the confusing relationship between statistics and data analysis, and also about how statistics relates to science
#statistics #rstats #datascience
www.alexpghayes.com/post/making-...
This capability isn't directly built into the software, but you can just check if the adjustment criterion holds for C with respect to:
- A on M, and
- A and M jointly on Y.
So you can check identification without needing to apply graphical criteria yourself!
www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
- A on M, and
- A and M jointly on Y.
So you can check identification without needing to apply graphical criteria yourself!
www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
March 21, 2025 at 4:57 AM
This capability isn't directly built into the software, but you can just check if the adjustment criterion holds for C with respect to:
- A on M, and
- A and M jointly on Y.
So you can check identification without needing to apply graphical criteria yourself!
www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
- A on M, and
- A and M jointly on Y.
So you can check identification without needing to apply graphical criteria yourself!
www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
Sunset across Lake Mendota in Madison
March 10, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Sunset across Lake Mendota in Madison
Enjoying Kino Zhao's recent HDSR paper on a way to think about statistical assumptions
I'm also pleased that a stats venue is publishing this kind of work
hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/qasl4fza...
I'm also pleased that a stats venue is publishing this kind of work
hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/qasl4fza...
February 12, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Enjoying Kino Zhao's recent HDSR paper on a way to think about statistical assumptions
I'm also pleased that a stats venue is publishing this kind of work
hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/qasl4fza...
I'm also pleased that a stats venue is publishing this kind of work
hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/qasl4fza...
My work on network regression and mediation in latent space models is now published at JMLR!
jmlr.org/papers/v26/2...
jmlr.org/papers/v26/2...
February 10, 2025 at 11:30 PM
My work on network regression and mediation in latent space models is now published at JMLR!
jmlr.org/papers/v26/2...
jmlr.org/papers/v26/2...
latexdiff-vc is a magic way to see what changes coauthors made to a LaTeX manuscript
latexdiff-vc --git --pdf -r {my_last_commit} -r HEAD paper.tex
www.mankier.com/1/latexdiff-vc
latexdiff-vc --git --pdf -r {my_last_commit} -r HEAD paper.tex
www.mankier.com/1/latexdiff-vc
January 21, 2025 at 5:24 PM
latexdiff-vc is a magic way to see what changes coauthors made to a LaTeX manuscript
latexdiff-vc --git --pdf -r {my_last_commit} -r HEAD paper.tex
www.mankier.com/1/latexdiff-vc
latexdiff-vc --git --pdf -r {my_last_commit} -r HEAD paper.tex
www.mankier.com/1/latexdiff-vc
Last night I finished "Code" by @charlespetzold.bsky.social, which starts by explaining how to physically implement logic gates with electromagnets and ends with a full-fledged explanation of a computer
Undoubted one of the best books I've ever read and I only wish I'd read it sooner
Undoubted one of the best books I've ever read and I only wish I'd read it sooner
December 15, 2024 at 4:44 PM
Last night I finished "Code" by @charlespetzold.bsky.social, which starts by explaining how to physically implement logic gates with electromagnets and ends with a full-fledged explanation of a computer
Undoubted one of the best books I've ever read and I only wish I'd read it sooner
Undoubted one of the best books I've ever read and I only wish I'd read it sooner
~~ new blog post ~~
i wrote about the meme that academic code is bad, what i think is achievable, and why i don't think we should be trying to get academics to write software for production
would love to hear what folks think!
#rstats #pydata
www.alexpghayes.com/post/what-i-...
i wrote about the meme that academic code is bad, what i think is achievable, and why i don't think we should be trying to get academics to write software for production
would love to hear what folks think!
#rstats #pydata
www.alexpghayes.com/post/what-i-...
November 15, 2024 at 4:06 PM
~~ new blog post ~~
i wrote about the meme that academic code is bad, what i think is achievable, and why i don't think we should be trying to get academics to write software for production
would love to hear what folks think!
#rstats #pydata
www.alexpghayes.com/post/what-i-...
i wrote about the meme that academic code is bad, what i think is achievable, and why i don't think we should be trying to get academics to write software for production
would love to hear what folks think!
#rstats #pydata
www.alexpghayes.com/post/what-i-...
Minor update to {vsp} just hit CRAN #rstats
- Bug fixes: get_hubs() functions working again
- Now automatically permutes B matrix to make it as diagonal as possible, such that Y and Z factors match up (to the degree possible)
rohelab.github.io/vsp/news/ind...
- Bug fixes: get_hubs() functions working again
- Now automatically permutes B matrix to make it as diagonal as possible, such that Y and Z factors match up (to the degree possible)
rohelab.github.io/vsp/news/ind...
November 5, 2024 at 8:20 PM
Minor update to {vsp} just hit CRAN #rstats
- Bug fixes: get_hubs() functions working again
- Now automatically permutes B matrix to make it as diagonal as possible, such that Y and Z factors match up (to the degree possible)
rohelab.github.io/vsp/news/ind...
- Bug fixes: get_hubs() functions working again
- Now automatically permutes B matrix to make it as diagonal as possible, such that Y and Z factors match up (to the degree possible)
rohelab.github.io/vsp/news/ind...
experiment idea for someone in poli sci: assess whether the 2nd, 3rd, etc postcard promising to publicize turnout still has a positive impact on voter turnout
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
October 30, 2024 at 10:24 PM
experiment idea for someone in poli sci: assess whether the 2nd, 3rd, etc postcard promising to publicize turnout still has a positive impact on voter turnout
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
here's another one on the importance of visualizing data vs index/time: these are permutations of the same data!
Petruccelli, Joseph. “Using a Quartet and Variations to Teach Data Analysis.” MSOR Connections 7, no. 2 (May 2007): 20–23. doi.org/10.11120/mso....
Petruccelli, Joseph. “Using a Quartet and Variations to Teach Data Analysis.” MSOR Connections 7, no. 2 (May 2007): 20–23. doi.org/10.11120/mso....
October 27, 2024 at 9:20 PM
here's another one on the importance of visualizing data vs index/time: these are permutations of the same data!
Petruccelli, Joseph. “Using a Quartet and Variations to Teach Data Analysis.” MSOR Connections 7, no. 2 (May 2007): 20–23. doi.org/10.11120/mso....
Petruccelli, Joseph. “Using a Quartet and Variations to Teach Data Analysis.” MSOR Connections 7, no. 2 (May 2007): 20–23. doi.org/10.11120/mso....
a phylogenetic example where parameter estimates from a brownian motion model are all the same despite the trees being different
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
October 27, 2024 at 8:22 PM
a phylogenetic example where parameter estimates from a brownian motion model are all the same despite the trees being different
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
the datasaurus dozen, which is the original quartet on steroids
Matejka, Justin, and George Fitzmaurice. “Same Stats, Different Graphs: Generating Datasets with Varied Appearance and Identical Statistics through Simulated Annealing.” CHI 2017 doi.org/10.1145/3025...
Matejka, Justin, and George Fitzmaurice. “Same Stats, Different Graphs: Generating Datasets with Varied Appearance and Identical Statistics through Simulated Annealing.” CHI 2017 doi.org/10.1145/3025...
October 27, 2024 at 8:10 PM
the datasaurus dozen, which is the original quartet on steroids
Matejka, Justin, and George Fitzmaurice. “Same Stats, Different Graphs: Generating Datasets with Varied Appearance and Identical Statistics through Simulated Annealing.” CHI 2017 doi.org/10.1145/3025...
Matejka, Justin, and George Fitzmaurice. “Same Stats, Different Graphs: Generating Datasets with Varied Appearance and Identical Statistics through Simulated Annealing.” CHI 2017 doi.org/10.1145/3025...
a predictive quartet showing that models with the same prediction error can vary dramatically
Biecek, Przemysław, Hubert Baniecki, Mateusz Krzyziński, and Dianne Cook. “Performance Is Not Enough: The Story Told by a Rashomon Quartet.” JCGS 2024
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Biecek, Przemysław, Hubert Baniecki, Mateusz Krzyziński, and Dianne Cook. “Performance Is Not Enough: The Story Told by a Rashomon Quartet.” JCGS 2024
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
October 27, 2024 at 8:05 PM
a predictive quartet showing that models with the same prediction error can vary dramatically
Biecek, Przemysław, Hubert Baniecki, Mateusz Krzyziński, and Dianne Cook. “Performance Is Not Enough: The Story Told by a Rashomon Quartet.” JCGS 2024
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Biecek, Przemysław, Hubert Baniecki, Mateusz Krzyziński, and Dianne Cook. “Performance Is Not Enough: The Story Told by a Rashomon Quartet.” JCGS 2024
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
some quartets demonstrating how different conditional average treatment effects can all result in the same average treatment effect
Gelman, Andrew, Jessica Hullman, and Lauren Kennedy. “Causal Quartets: Different Ways to Attain the Same Average Treatment Effect.”
doi.org/10.1080/0003...
Gelman, Andrew, Jessica Hullman, and Lauren Kennedy. “Causal Quartets: Different Ways to Attain the Same Average Treatment Effect.”
doi.org/10.1080/0003...
October 27, 2024 at 8:02 PM
some quartets demonstrating how different conditional average treatment effects can all result in the same average treatment effect
Gelman, Andrew, Jessica Hullman, and Lauren Kennedy. “Causal Quartets: Different Ways to Attain the Same Average Treatment Effect.”
doi.org/10.1080/0003...
Gelman, Andrew, Jessica Hullman, and Lauren Kennedy. “Causal Quartets: Different Ways to Attain the Same Average Treatment Effect.”
doi.org/10.1080/0003...
next up is a causal quartet showing that different causal mechanisms can lead to the same data
D’Agostino McGowan, Lucy, Travis Gerke, and Malcolm Barrett. “Causal Inference Is Not Just a Statistics Problem.” Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education doi.org/10.1080/2693...
D’Agostino McGowan, Lucy, Travis Gerke, and Malcolm Barrett. “Causal Inference Is Not Just a Statistics Problem.” Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education doi.org/10.1080/2693...
October 27, 2024 at 7:58 PM
next up is a causal quartet showing that different causal mechanisms can lead to the same data
D’Agostino McGowan, Lucy, Travis Gerke, and Malcolm Barrett. “Causal Inference Is Not Just a Statistics Problem.” Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education doi.org/10.1080/2693...
D’Agostino McGowan, Lucy, Travis Gerke, and Malcolm Barrett. “Causal Inference Is Not Just a Statistics Problem.” Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education doi.org/10.1080/2693...
the classic is anscombe's quartet, which shows that data with the same summary statistics can look very different when plotted
Anscombe, F J. “Graphs in Statistical Analysis.” The American Statistician 27, no. 1 (February 1973): 17–21.
www.jstor.org/stable/2682899
Anscombe, F J. “Graphs in Statistical Analysis.” The American Statistician 27, no. 1 (February 1973): 17–21.
www.jstor.org/stable/2682899
October 27, 2024 at 7:56 PM
the classic is anscombe's quartet, which shows that data with the same summary statistics can look very different when plotted
Anscombe, F J. “Graphs in Statistical Analysis.” The American Statistician 27, no. 1 (February 1973): 17–21.
www.jstor.org/stable/2682899
Anscombe, F J. “Graphs in Statistical Analysis.” The American Statistician 27, no. 1 (February 1973): 17–21.
www.jstor.org/stable/2682899
Fast and easy way to set your handle to your #quarto blog domain (I just did mine):
- Settings > Change Handle > No DNS Panel > Copy DID
- Create atproto-did file in blog
- Add atproto-did file to Quarto resources list
- Push
Takes <5 minutes
- Settings > Change Handle > No DNS Panel > Copy DID
- Create atproto-did file in blog
- Add atproto-did file to Quarto resources list
- Push
Takes <5 minutes
October 27, 2024 at 6:44 PM
Fast and easy way to set your handle to your #quarto blog domain (I just did mine):
- Settings > Change Handle > No DNS Panel > Copy DID
- Create atproto-did file in blog
- Add atproto-did file to Quarto resources list
- Push
Takes <5 minutes
- Settings > Change Handle > No DNS Panel > Copy DID
- Create atproto-did file in blog
- Add atproto-did file to Quarto resources list
- Push
Takes <5 minutes
In terms of directly interpreting factors, I like to use heatmaps these days
Figure from arxiv.org/abs/2212.12041
Figure from arxiv.org/abs/2212.12041
October 27, 2024 at 5:04 AM
In terms of directly interpreting factors, I like to use heatmaps these days
Figure from arxiv.org/abs/2212.12041
Figure from arxiv.org/abs/2212.12041
Less directly useful for interpretation, but pairs plots can be a helpful diagnostic, although exactly what to look for is still somewhat heuristic
October 27, 2024 at 5:03 AM
Less directly useful for interpretation, but pairs plots can be a helpful diagnostic, although exactly what to look for is still somewhat heuristic
October 27, 2024 at 5:02 AM
So the negative result does not assume RDPG structure (Thm 1). However, in RDPGs, controlling for latent positions can recover identifiability (Thm 2).
Conceivably the Hoff model you studied with Guido could also be safe from asymptotic collinearity, but we didn't check!
Conceivably the Hoff model you studied with Guido could also be safe from asymptotic collinearity, but we didn't check!
October 16, 2024 at 8:00 PM
So the negative result does not assume RDPG structure (Thm 1). However, in RDPGs, controlling for latent positions can recover identifiability (Thm 2).
Conceivably the Hoff model you studied with Guido could also be safe from asymptotic collinearity, but we didn't check!
Conceivably the Hoff model you studied with Guido could also be safe from asymptotic collinearity, but we didn't check!
So we have a limited result that says that treatments dependent on network structure can avoid the colinearity problem. We only consider RDPGs as a way to induce dependence between a nodal covariate and the network, but presumably other models can as well
October 16, 2024 at 6:28 PM
So we have a limited result that says that treatments dependent on network structure can avoid the colinearity problem. We only consider RDPGs as a way to induce dependence between a nodal covariate and the network, but presumably other models can as well