13/ And all of this has been shaped by the hard work of many TBI colleagues, Ryan Wain, @joniesmith.bsky.social, Jo Puddick, @dralanwager.bsky.social, Jess Lythgow, Sam Sharps and our fantastic comms team

12/ Those are some of my main readouts but yours will be different. I hope you enjoy playing with this tool as much as I've enjoyed building it with the best team, Robert Johnson, Kayla Crowley-Carbery, and Tim Rhydderch.

11/ Finally the Root Causes machine learning model identifies the strongest predictors of voting one way over another.

Immigration views are the strongest predictor of voting for Reform over Labour. But among 18–34-year-old voters, it's distrust in the establishment.

10/ Voters don't fit neatly into ideological boxes and sometimes combinations of views surprise. The Branches of Belief tool allows you to reveal tensions, new coalitions, and unexpected common ground.

9/ Not all issues are divisive. In the UK and elsewhere, people want radical healthcare reform. And more voters are cautiously optimistic about the impact of AI.

8/ If mainstream parties like Labour cannot fix migration, they will lose to the Insurgent Right. This doesn't mean copying the loud noises of the right, it means actual solutions.

7/ You can also use the Political Landscapes tool to see where parties should position to meet voters. On immigration, the message is clear. Across the countries, and in the UK, more people think immigration is a burden. But you can see the risk to Labour's existing coalition too

6/ You can select which variables you're interested in a build your own clusters, and draw your own lessons
bit.ly/41Sn760

5/ These groups have different levels of education, but they have similar income distributions. What they really have in common is that mainstream politics has failed to deliver for them.

4/ Insurgent Left voters are economically pessimistic, have little faith that hard work pays off and have moderate trust in the establishment.
Insurgent Right voters are also economically pessimistic, with much lower trust in the establishment, but do believe hard work pays.

3/ We polled 12,000 people across 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇫🇷🇩🇪🇨🇦🇦🇺 and found five new clusters of parties that cut across the traditional left-right spectrum bit.ly/41Sn760

2/ Earlier this year, our Disruptive Delivery paper revealed a market failure. Western Voters want radical change to address national decline. But mainstream parties haven't delivered, leaving space for insurgents to rise.

institute.global/insights/pol...