Alex Hodnett
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alexhodnett.bsky.social
Alex Hodnett
@alexhodnett.bsky.social
playing hopscotch at the firm/state frontier
But this is why narratives about how rich he is matter. Because narratives feed sociology, politics, and policy.

Shadows on the wall may not stand up in the light, but that doesn't matter if you make decisions in the dark. So best to start with the right information.
October 19, 2025 at 12:27 PM
People and societies acting together can far surpass his influence - e.g. the people of Luxembourg are more than three times more important than him.

Politics, policy, and sociology in developed countries, especially surrounding economics and markets, can far surpass this level of influence.
October 19, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Obviously, there are reasons why Musk is important. His significance is as an economic dictator - as a government dictator commands a country, he commands capital equivalent to a small country.

Additionally, these figures don't capture the whole story.

But I worry it's too easy to focus on him.
October 19, 2025 at 12:27 PM
There are other ways this can be viewed.

Musk (with equity risk) would capture c. 0.13% of US GDP - taking $1 of every c. $765 made.

The equivalent global figures would be 0.034% of GDP, or $1 of every c. $3,000.
October 19, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Assuming a risk-free rare of return of 3.5%, Musk's risk-free gross product is c. $17bn. This is comparable to countries like Laos or North Macedonia.

Assuming an equity risk premium of 5%, giving a total RoR of 8.5%, Musk's risk-taking gross product is c. $41bn, comparable to Cyprus or Estonia.
October 19, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Fortunately I have access at the moment, but greatly appreciate the offer :)
October 12, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Ah looks like I need to read the whole article lol
October 12, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Reads as though the OBR’s response to the NPPF reforms are lasting long in their memory? www.gov.uk/government/n...
OBR concludes planning reforms will bring housebuilding to its highest level in 40 years
OBR forecast concludes housebuilding will be at its highest level in over 40 years a result of UK government’s planning reforms by 2029/30 – bringing UK closer to Plan for Growth 1.5 million homes tar...
www.gov.uk
October 12, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Thanks both, really interesting to understand. Apologies for my ignorance here (and I'll be the first to admit I am very!) - if minimum wage isn't low income, who is? I suppose I had assumed it would be binding. Is the big concerns around part time and/or gig economy workers?
September 26, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Caveating that I'm not a labour economist, so while this has been my experience with evidence and theory, this could be well off!
September 26, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Think this may also show how economics has somewhat overcorrected from theory to empirics. The theory that wage floors destroy jobs was wrong at the time of Card's work due to other factors, but there would always be a point where the theory has bite again - and the impact comes before the data.
September 26, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Between this thread and the new Government Policy Rule, you really are on fire today
feel this strongly enough that I hope whichever kind soul put these policy rules together www.civilservant.org.uk/library/Wilk...
would add one:

"Asking people is a terrible idea"
Attempts to make policy both Good and Popular will invariably fail at both.
July 8, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Bit of a pharmas league, I’ve heard
June 17, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Fwiw feel like a lot of this stuff rn is similar to the old warnings like “don’t urinate on electricity cables” – obvious to us now, but new risks take time to understand and warn against. And there will always be some who get caught by them
June 13, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Feels a lot like Wilkes' Paradox of Nuance is affecting the voting public - the more "it's complicated" is given, the more the impatient people are for a radical solution.
May 19, 2025 at 2:17 PM
It's giving "The Parable of the [Tom] Scholar"
April 17, 2025 at 2:29 PM
University college, Oxbridge. And it would still be over represented on university challenge
April 12, 2025 at 7:13 PM
I think UBI has to count as a real proposal here. Can’t speak to the outcomes of it, but certainly as a “restart economy and state” proposal I do think it ticks the boxes
April 9, 2025 at 3:32 PM