Aleksi Mustonen
@aleksimustonen.bsky.social
Exploring the worlds of investment's. Passionate about ultimate frisbee. 🌍📈🏅
13/13 It is also worth noting that during Q1, the SEC dropped its charges against Coinbase—as it did with several other crypto companies. This means that one significant expense item will be removed from future projections.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
13/13 It is also worth noting that during Q1, the SEC dropped its charges against Coinbase—as it did with several other crypto companies. This means that one significant expense item will be removed from future projections.
12/13 According to Coinbase’s own guidance, operating expenses are expected to rise by approximately $50–$100 million compared to Q4.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
12/13 According to Coinbase’s own guidance, operating expenses are expected to rise by approximately $50–$100 million compared to Q4.
11/13 Net Revenue Q1/25 prediction: $2,069.58 million (Q4: $2,197 million)
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
11/13 Net Revenue Q1/25 prediction: $2,069.58 million (Q4: $2,197 million)
10/13 Other Revenue: I will not separately forecast other revenue streams, as I focus on aspects that can be tracked on the blockchain. My assumption is that these figures will remain close to those from Q4.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
10/13 Other Revenue: I will not separately forecast other revenue streams, as I focus on aspects that can be tracked on the blockchain. My assumption is that these figures will remain close to those from Q4.
9/13 Blockchain Rewards: $171.9 million (Q4/2024: $214.9 million)
This time I have taken into account the value changes of all cryptocurrencies offered by Coinbase. Since the aggregate value of all cryptocurrencies declined by roughly 20% during Q1/2025, a lower figure compared to Q4 is expected.
This time I have taken into account the value changes of all cryptocurrencies offered by Coinbase. Since the aggregate value of all cryptocurrencies declined by roughly 20% during Q1/2025, a lower figure compared to Q4 is expected.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
9/13 Blockchain Rewards: $171.9 million (Q4/2024: $214.9 million)
This time I have taken into account the value changes of all cryptocurrencies offered by Coinbase. Since the aggregate value of all cryptocurrencies declined by roughly 20% during Q1/2025, a lower figure compared to Q4 is expected.
This time I have taken into account the value changes of all cryptocurrencies offered by Coinbase. Since the aggregate value of all cryptocurrencies declined by roughly 20% during Q1/2025, a lower figure compared to Q4 is expected.
8/13 Consequently, USDC’s market capitalization rose from about $44 billion to $60 billion. However, the revenue from stablecoins appears to be slightly lower than before. There is some uncertainty with this forecast.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
8/13 Consequently, USDC’s market capitalization rose from about $44 billion to $60 billion. However, the revenue from stablecoins appears to be slightly lower than before. There is some uncertainty with this forecast.
7/13 Stablecoin Revenue: $308.2m (Q4: $225.9 m)
The total market of stablecoins has increased from approximately $203b to $233.8b during in Q1. In particular, USDC experienced significant growth during Q1 because European crypto exchange clients can no longer use the most common stablecoin, USDT.
The total market of stablecoins has increased from approximately $203b to $233.8b during in Q1. In particular, USDC experienced significant growth during Q1 because European crypto exchange clients can no longer use the most common stablecoin, USDT.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
7/13 Stablecoin Revenue: $308.2m (Q4: $225.9 m)
The total market of stablecoins has increased from approximately $203b to $233.8b during in Q1. In particular, USDC experienced significant growth during Q1 because European crypto exchange clients can no longer use the most common stablecoin, USDT.
The total market of stablecoins has increased from approximately $203b to $233.8b during in Q1. In particular, USDC experienced significant growth during Q1 because European crypto exchange clients can no longer use the most common stablecoin, USDT.
6/13 Total Subscription and Services Revenue: $683.1 million (Q4: $641.1 million) Coinbase’s own guidance set this revenue range at $685–$765 million, placing my projection near the lower end of that range.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
6/13 Total Subscription and Services Revenue: $683.1 million (Q4: $641.1 million) Coinbase’s own guidance set this revenue range at $685–$765 million, placing my projection near the lower end of that range.
5/13 Other Transaction Revenue: $55 million (Q4/2024: $67.7 million)
Although Base's blockchain volumes have performed well, they have remained at the same level as during Q4/2024. TVL has increased in ETH terms; however, due to a drop in ETH's price, the USD revenue is likely to fall.
Although Base's blockchain volumes have performed well, they have remained at the same level as during Q4/2024. TVL has increased in ETH terms; however, due to a drop in ETH's price, the USD revenue is likely to fall.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
5/13 Other Transaction Revenue: $55 million (Q4/2024: $67.7 million)
Although Base's blockchain volumes have performed well, they have remained at the same level as during Q4/2024. TVL has increased in ETH terms; however, due to a drop in ETH's price, the USD revenue is likely to fall.
Although Base's blockchain volumes have performed well, they have remained at the same level as during Q4/2024. TVL has increased in ETH terms; however, due to a drop in ETH's price, the USD revenue is likely to fall.
4/13 Total Transaction Revenue: $1,386.48 million (Q4/2024: $1,556.0 million)
This time I will not estimate the breakdown of volumes between consumer and institutional clients, but positive news from both segments leads me to consider the Q4 distribution a reliable forecast.
This time I will not estimate the breakdown of volumes between consumer and institutional clients, but positive news from both segments leads me to consider the Q4 distribution a reliable forecast.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
4/13 Total Transaction Revenue: $1,386.48 million (Q4/2024: $1,556.0 million)
This time I will not estimate the breakdown of volumes between consumer and institutional clients, but positive news from both segments leads me to consider the Q4 distribution a reliable forecast.
This time I will not estimate the breakdown of volumes between consumer and institutional clients, but positive news from both segments leads me to consider the Q4 distribution a reliable forecast.
3/13 Coinbase’s Q1 earnings will be released on May 8, 2025, providing ample time to observe the impact of global events before the report is published.
Below are my personal (not financial advisor) forecasts for the various earnings segments:
Below are my personal (not financial advisor) forecasts for the various earnings segments:
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
3/13 Coinbase’s Q1 earnings will be released on May 8, 2025, providing ample time to observe the impact of global events before the report is published.
Below are my personal (not financial advisor) forecasts for the various earnings segments:
Below are my personal (not financial advisor) forecasts for the various earnings segments:
2/13 COIN's stock price has dropped approximately 40% since its previous peak earnings—a result of the stock’s strong correlation with Bitcoin's price movements. Despite this, the earnings have remained nearly as strong as in Q4/24.
April 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
2/13 COIN's stock price has dropped approximately 40% since its previous peak earnings—a result of the stock’s strong correlation with Bitcoin's price movements. Despite this, the earnings have remained nearly as strong as in Q4/24.
10/11 Have others found preferable alternatives, and what experiences do you have?
Links to European alternative services and, for those free, secure email services:
Links to European alternative services and, for those free, secure email services:
April 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
10/11 Have others found preferable alternatives, and what experiences do you have?
Links to European alternative services and, for those free, secure email services:
Links to European alternative services and, for those free, secure email services:
9/11 Every country should consider who they want to vote into leadership and how it affects their own nation's exports.
April 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
9/11 Every country should consider who they want to vote into leadership and how it affects their own nation's exports.
8/11 To Americans: I still value you and consider you good people, and I hope you don't take this as an attack against you. The intention is to discuss how the poor diplomatic communication of your country's leadership affects your own country's exports.
April 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
8/11 To Americans: I still value you and consider you good people, and I hope you don't take this as an attack against you. The intention is to discuss how the poor diplomatic communication of your country's leadership affects your own country's exports.
7/11 I myself have been satisfied with an alternative search engine and an email service where I got a domain with my own name, even though my first and last name is one of the most common in Finland.
April 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
7/11 I myself have been satisfied with an alternative search engine and an email service where I got a domain with my own name, even though my first and last name is one of the most common in Finland.
6/11 Location: In some cases, tracking can reveal the recipient's approximate location.
Device Information: You may receive information about the device on which the email was opened (e.g., phone, computer).
Time Spent: Some tools can show how long the recipient spent reading the email.
Device Information: You may receive information about the device on which the email was opened (e.g., phone, computer).
Time Spent: Some tools can show how long the recipient spent reading the email.
April 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
6/11 Location: In some cases, tracking can reveal the recipient's approximate location.
Device Information: You may receive information about the device on which the email was opened (e.g., phone, computer).
Time Spent: Some tools can show how long the recipient spent reading the email.
Device Information: You may receive information about the device on which the email was opened (e.g., phone, computer).
Time Spent: Some tools can show how long the recipient spent reading the email.
5/11 For example, the sender of an email can receive the following information from services that do not use protection:
Open Tracking: You can see if and when the recipient has opened your email.
Click Tracking: You can track which links in the email have been clicked and how many times.
Open Tracking: You can see if and when the recipient has opened your email.
Click Tracking: You can track which links in the email have been clicked and how many times.
April 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
5/11 For example, the sender of an email can receive the following information from services that do not use protection:
Open Tracking: You can see if and when the recipient has opened your email.
Click Tracking: You can track which links in the email have been clicked and how many times.
Open Tracking: You can see if and when the recipient has opened your email.
Click Tracking: You can track which links in the email have been clicked and how many times.
4/11 Since data is what American big tech companies dominate with, after a little research, it's clear that it is highly recommended to use email that prevents tracking and to use it for social media platforms, or to give that data to someone other than a large corporation you don't want to support.
April 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
4/11 Since data is what American big tech companies dominate with, after a little research, it's clear that it is highly recommended to use email that prevents tracking and to use it for social media platforms, or to give that data to someone other than a large corporation you don't want to support.
3/11 To my surprise, when I asked an AI for free and secure email services, ¾ were located in Europe and ¼ in India.
April 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
3/11 To my surprise, when I asked an AI for free and secure email services, ¾ were located in Europe and ¼ in India.