↘️ At the aggregate level, deporting 1% of the population reduces long-run output per worker by 1%.

So, while initially achieving short-term goals like reducing congestion, these policies can have persistent unintended consequences, taking decades to fully materialize.

As migrants move into newly de-congested regions, local economies respond.

↗️ At the commuting zone level, I find that a 1% rise of migration inflows increases wages and output per worker by 0.15%-0.25% and housing prices by 1%—peaking 4 years after the shock.

But migration is dynamic and responds to such policies. My JMP shows these policies can have unintended effects: as regions become less congested, they attract new migration flows, potentially reversing short-term gains.