To help characterise the air transport-economy relationship across European regions, we applied a statistical clustering approach to create four distinct groupings (map below): /8

⭕ Why? A major factor is the decline in business use of air travel. It's accelerated since the pandemic, but was already stagnant in most of western Europe prior to that (Figure below). /6

🔔 New study🔔 What is the relationship between air transport and economic growth in Europe? Dr Felix Pot and I break it down like never before in our new report for @neweconomics.bsky.social and T&E: /1

Below is a fresh cut of my favourite graph. Air trips per £million real GDP, with linear trend lines. The world has changed, but will the government catch up in time? /ends

This just in. Kemi thinks the actions of Palestine Action at Brize Norton might have stopped a war crime...
Not sure she fully thought this one through 😂

"Yes, and"
...more damage from climate hazards
...more regional inequality
...a smaller domestic tourism sector
...a bigger current account deficit
...more costly traded carbon prices
...higher land and energy prices
...more noise and air quality
Etc.

It's extraordinary that we are having this public debate about airport expansions with barely a whisper about what it means for domestic tourism. It's no coincidence the UK's overnight tourism sector is in decline, i.e. contributing to our stagnant growth. We keep making it cheaper to go overseas!

The aviation industry, in defence of the economic benefits of airport expansion, are pointing to the Airports Commission's 2015 work. Fun fact: The Commission's forecasts were catastrophically wrong. Business passenger numbers are way off. So their outputs on GDP growth etc. are total nonsense.

Twist in the Heathrow saga this morning. Insiders are asking the right questions about whether the supposed growth benefit is really worth the catastrophic climate damage afterall...

It's time for economists, academics and transport specialists to stand up and be counted. Today's news is awash with articles uncritically accepting the argument that airport expansion is 'good for growth'. Yet the arguments in favour are largely based on 'vibes'...

New NEF analysis out today. Amid rumours that gvt will expand Heathrow, Luton and Gatwick airports, we show that doing so would wipe out the benefit of the government's Clean Power Plan (i.e. the sprint for zero carbon electricity by 2030) within 5 years of expanded operation. /1

How much are they offering for Netanyahu?

The charm offensive is on, ahead of big gvt decisions on Luton and Gatwick expansions early next year. The economic growth claims are baseless. The climate risks are material.

Question for the day: What happens to an economy that has zero growth in real household expenditure, but at the same time sees a very significant rise in spending on travel abroad?