"The one with the rifle shoots! One out of two gets rifle. The one without, follows him!"

Like the centrist parties' failures in the 2000s and 2010s were the propellant of the far right's rise, the failure of the 🇺🇸 far right in the 2020s will be the propellant of a centrist revival, if not of a far-left revival. Narrations drive psychology, and that drives economics and politics. 3/3

Trump's victories were, to many, the proofs that right wing parties were on an unstoppable path of ascendance.
The problem is that, in the coming years, Trump will have quite few things to show as a success, and the aftershock of the 🇺🇸 will be too big to ignore. 2/

Finally, both ignored the complexity of modern supply chains; they didn't take into account that some bottleneck outside their control could hinder its economy.
Trump didn't take into account the hindrances to the tech industry.
Putin didn't take into account the hindrances to the oil industry.

Both men thought that they had the ultimate coercive weapon.
Trump thought that he could force other nations to swallow the tariffs because of the importance of the 🇺🇸 market.
Putin thought that he could force other nations to swallow its invasion of 🇺🇦because of its gas blackmail.🔽

Both discounted the possible reactions of the opponents, having no backup plan.
Putin didn't plan for the freezing of its reserves and the sanctions' impact on its railways and oil industry, something critical for its war machine.
Trump did not stockpile rare earths anticipating a 🇨🇳 response.🔽

Both ignored the dangers of alienating its main economic partner, not taking into account the consequences of it on their own supply chains.
Putin alienated Europe, that was its main gas buyer and the main supplier of items like rolling stocks.
Trump alienated 🇨🇳, its main rare earths supplier. 🔽

10/10) Exhibit B: MAGAs hope to win an "attrition" trade war ignoring the weaknesses of the 🇺🇸 economy, e.g.
-over-realiance on wealthy consumers
-hyperfinancialization of the 🇺🇸 economy
-3 out 10 🇺🇸 have more credit card debts than emergency funds)
-Millions of 🇺🇸 in a precarious financial situation.

9)Both MAGA and Russia hoping for a blitz, then stumbling into an attrition war, ignoring they are far weaker than expected.
Exhibit A: 🇷🇺 hopes to win a military attrition war even though its birthrate is low and its industry is much weaker than the european ones.⬇️

8) Both MAGA and 🇷🇺 have contradictory beliefs.
MAGA: 🇪🇺 is dysfunctional and dying, but at the same time is an all-powerful trade power and has been "robbing" 🇺🇸through trade surplus
🇷🇺: 🇪🇺 is the land of degenerates but at the same time is an industrial power hell bent on destroying 🇷🇺⬇️

7)Both MAGA and 🇷🇺 believing they have "the ultimate weapon" to coerce anyone. See the 🇷🇺 never-ending nuclear threates (during the war in 🇺🇦) vs Stephen Miran's paper about the all-encompassing use of tariffs for both public debt financing, industrial policy and burden sharing.⬇️

6)Both "wars" are waged by people with zero experience in the trade. The 🇺🇸 trade war (in the name of reshoring) is being waged by people who don't have industrial experience (since they come from academia and finance), The 🇷🇺 invasion is being planned and waged by former KGB people. ⬇️

5) Neither movement had a plan B in case they met resistance, therefore they both went into full chaos mode. 🇷🇺 leaders have been shifting between "escalation" to "we are open to negotiations", 🇺🇸 leaders are now shifting between "trade war escalation" and "look, so many deals, we're here!" ⬇️

4) Both movements started recklessly planned "wars" on their partners, thinking that they would not react. MAGA started the trade war thinking that the world would simply fold, 🇷🇺 invaded 🇺🇦 thinking that 🇺🇦 would fold and Europe would not dare respond. 🇺🇸 tariffs on 🇲🇽 and 🇨🇦 vs 🇷🇺'sHostomel blitz. ⬇️

3)MAGA resents the world because it "robbed and abused them" by "stealing" 🇺🇸jobs. Russky Mir resents the world because it allegedly "stole " historical 🇷🇺 lands. Both movements believe they are in a mission to recover "what was lost".⬇️

1)Both MAGA and Putinism are backward looking (MAGA looking backwards to pre-1990 🇺🇸 economy with booming 🇺🇸manufacturing, Putinism looking backwards to pre-1990 🇷🇺military power.
2)Both feed on resentment due to "lost status"⬇️

5/5 In such a nightmarish scenario, 🇮🇱and the 🇺🇸 troops in the Middle East would find themselves cut of from resupplies coming from North America (the Mediterranean being unpassable for the 🇺🇸ships). And it was the 🇺🇸 intervention that prevented 🇮🇷 missiles from saturating 🇮🇱 morgues in 2024.

4/ What if those supply lines were to crumble because 🇺🇸 troops in the Mediterranean and Europe came under attack or were unable to operate because of European hostility? Would they still be able to resupply Israel and the Gulf States?

3/But as Ben Hodges pointed out, those troops' task is not just to defend Europe, but to allow the projection of 🇺🇸 power in Africa and the Middle East -> I.E. to protect 🇮🇱 and the Gulf monarchies like, say 🇸🇦.

2/In such a dystopian scenario, 🇺🇸 troops in Europe (think: Continental Europe and the Mediterranean Sea) would immediately become stranded in a foreign an hostile continent with zero possibilities of getting rescued. That would be a "battle of the barracks 1991" on steroids.