Most individual model projections we use in our blend (with our own SLR conversions) have 20-40" of snow at Targhee over the next 10 days. Highest confidence is the 4th-8th. After the 8th, confidence in snow chances is lower, and we are also looking at a significant warm-up.

The good news for skiers is that it's still very early in the season, and we do have an active stretch coming up from Dec 4th-8th as a series of storms will move through from the northwest. This will bring some needed base-building snow to the Tetons.

Grand Targhee had its 2nd least snowy Nov on record (28" vs. an avg of 76") and JHMR Mid-Mtn its 4th least snowy Nov (18" vs. an avg of 57"). Nov 30th snow depth in the Tetons is 50-70% of avg above 9,000 ft & 20-60% of avg below 9,000 ft.

Overall, it's been a warm and dry year in the Tetons aside from the 2nd half of last winter. The past 10 months & 11 of the past 12 months in Jackson have been warmer than average.

The big question, of course, is snow potential. I'm keeping an eye on the PNW, Canada, & Northern U.S. Rockies for improved snow chances (and lower snow levels) from late Nov to early Dec.

Much colder air is expected to spill into the Northwest and Interior West around Thanksgiving, with the coldest anomalies projected just east of the Continental Divide.

Here is the OpenSnow total snow forecast map from Thursday PM through Saturday PM, based on our internal blend of forecast data from global and high resolution weather models.

Thursday night could be one of those events where Snow King sees just as much snow as Jackson Hole Mtn Resort (& town not far behind). Fri-Sat will feature more orographic forcing with snow totals really adding up over the Tetons & especially at Targhee.

The warmer air aloft will be encountering a preceding cold, arctic airmass. Cold air is denser than warm air, so when this warmer air encounters the cold air, it will rise over the colder air like a ramp, forcing moisture to lift vertically at an accelerated rate, leading to heavier snowfall rates.