Alan Longbon MBA
@alanlongbonmba.bsky.social
Trading real estate, equity and bond markets using fiscal flow analysis, functional finance, demographics and the real estate cycle.
Federal Deficit ↑ = Private Surplus ↑ = Risk Asset markets ↑
Federal Deficit ↑ = Private Surplus ↑ = Risk Asset markets ↑
September 2025 Macro Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy Implications
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
September 2025 Macro Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy Implications
Robust August fiscal flows injected over $445 billion into the U.S. private sector, supporting risk asset prices and economic growth.
open.substack.com
September 12, 2025 at 7:18 AM
September 2025 Macro Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy Implications
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
August 2025 Macro Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy Implications
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
August 2025 Macro Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy Implications
Strong July fiscal flows and robust government outlays are fueling private sector liquidity, supporting risk asset prices for Q3 2025.
open.substack.com
August 11, 2025 at 12:33 PM
August 2025 Macro Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy Implications
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And The Fed For July
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And The Fed For July
June 2025 fiscal flows were weak, extracting $2B from the private sector, signaling short-term market caution and likely negative SPX performance for July.
open.substack.com
July 12, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And The Fed For July
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And the Fed for June
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And the Fed for June
Strong US fiscal flows in May 2025 support market liquidity, with a $241B private sector surplus driven by federal government spending.
open.substack.com
June 14, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And the Fed for June
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
What If Japan Dumped Its Treasuries
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
What If Japan Dumped Its Treasuries
Fears of Japan dumping US Treasuries are overblown; such moves are simply portfolio swaps with no real impact on rates or the dollar.
open.substack.com
June 14, 2025 at 5:10 AM
What If Japan Dumped Its Treasuries
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Oil And The Real Estate Cycle
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Oil And The Real Estate Cycle
Forecast oil peak in 2028 given mechanical and historical factors
open.substack.com
June 1, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Oil And The Real Estate Cycle
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And the Fed for May
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And the Fed for May
May 9, 2025 5:53 AM ET
open.substack.com
May 9, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And the Fed for May
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Strong federal spending this month and a big MoM change, but despite this a large private domestic sector deficit due to the large tax collection. At least it breaks the run of reduced spending and makes for positive acceleration and velocity effects.
May 2, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Strong federal spending this month and a big MoM change, but despite this a large private domestic sector deficit due to the large tax collection. At least it breaks the run of reduced spending and makes for positive acceleration and velocity effects.
Big private domestic sector deficit / Federal Government surplus in April. Add the current account deficit of about -$100B and it enlarges to -$400B and then add back bank credit creation at $100B so far makes it -$300B again. Bad for risk assets.
May 2, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Big private domestic sector deficit / Federal Government surplus in April. Add the current account deficit of about -$100B and it enlarges to -$400B and then add back bank credit creation at $100B so far makes it -$300B again. Bad for risk assets.
I have drawn some circles and lines to show how the debt limit process affects the SPX.
The market bottoms one quarter after the resumption of debt issuance. Based upon 2023 debt limit (red circle). The current debt limit is unresolved, is longer and shown in the purple circle.
The market bottoms one quarter after the resumption of debt issuance. Based upon 2023 debt limit (red circle). The current debt limit is unresolved, is longer and shown in the purple circle.
May 1, 2025 at 5:20 AM
I have drawn some circles and lines to show how the debt limit process affects the SPX.
The market bottoms one quarter after the resumption of debt issuance. Based upon 2023 debt limit (red circle). The current debt limit is unresolved, is longer and shown in the purple circle.
The market bottoms one quarter after the resumption of debt issuance. Based upon 2023 debt limit (red circle). The current debt limit is unresolved, is longer and shown in the purple circle.
This is a chart I keep of the fiscal flow strength for each major nation. This is the top 20 by GDP. The higher the number the better it is.
Nations that really stand out for investment are the Euro area, China, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Spain, Australia, Netherlands and Switzerland.
Nations that really stand out for investment are the Euro area, China, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Spain, Australia, Netherlands and Switzerland.
April 30, 2025 at 10:23 AM
This is a chart I keep of the fiscal flow strength for each major nation. This is the top 20 by GDP. The higher the number the better it is.
Nations that really stand out for investment are the Euro area, China, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Spain, Australia, Netherlands and Switzerland.
Nations that really stand out for investment are the Euro area, China, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Spain, Australia, Netherlands and Switzerland.
This is the Seeking Alpha version. seekingalpha.com/article/4779...
Brazil Is Good For A 7% Stable Yield And Some Upside As The USD Depreciates
Brazil's economic landscape: government spending, ETF opportunities with 3-7% yields, and market potential. Read more on iShares' EWZ ETF here.
seekingalpha.com
April 30, 2025 at 9:38 AM
This is the Seeking Alpha version. seekingalpha.com/article/4779...
This is a lagging indicator as the latest update is for February 2025, but new, and is still going up. It is the stop and the rollover we are watching for now as we enter the final phases of the land cycle.
April 30, 2025 at 3:52 AM
This is a lagging indicator as the latest update is for February 2025, but new, and is still going up. It is the stop and the rollover we are watching for now as we enter the final phases of the land cycle.
Brazil Is Good For A 7% Stable Yield And Some Upside As The USD Depreciates
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Brazil Is Good For A 7% Stable Yield And Some Upside As The USD Depreciates
Apr.
open.substack.com
April 28, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Brazil Is Good For A 7% Stable Yield And Some Upside As The USD Depreciates
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
Here is the Seeking Alpha version of my China dumping its treasuries article seekingalpha.com/article/4777...
What Happens If China Dumps Its Treasuries?
US Treasuries remain a risk-free, income-producing asset in the world's largest and most liquid bond market. Read what investors need to know.
seekingalpha.com
April 23, 2025 at 11:59 PM
Here is the Seeking Alpha version of my China dumping its treasuries article seekingalpha.com/article/4777...
If China Dumps Its Treasuries
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
If China Dumps Its Treasuries
Even if China exits Treasuries, the Fed will maintain interest rates, causing no significant economic disruption.
open.substack.com
April 23, 2025 at 10:33 AM
If China Dumps Its Treasuries
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
April 22, 2025 at 4:33 AM
April 22, 2025 at 4:32 AM
The April/May Fed Meeting And How To Play It
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
The April/May Fed Meeting And How To Play It
The Federal Reserve is likely to lower the Federal Funds Rate due to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and the negative impact of recent tariffs.
open.substack.com
April 19, 2025 at 11:22 AM
The April/May Fed Meeting And How To Play It
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
open.substack.com/pub/alanlong...
One thing that I see for the first time since 2015 is that total private debt has fallen for the first time. This is a lagging indicator as the last entry is for Q4 2024 whereas we are further along than that.
April 18, 2025 at 4:48 AM
One thing that I see for the first time since 2015 is that total private debt has fallen for the first time. This is a lagging indicator as the last entry is for Q4 2024 whereas we are further along than that.