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𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

13K followers 16K following 20K posts

𝕏𝒌𝒑 #FBR #Resist #StandUnbowed
I employ em dashes — by habit.

Quijotesco, contra molinos de viento.
Nōlī cēdere; repugnā et resistē!
Reges, nulli!
Noli cedere; repugna et resiste!
Θάρρος. Ακεραιότητα. Ταπεινοφροσύνη.

https://buymeacoffee.com/ajsdecepida

Posts Replies Media Videos

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

9 ❝Hegseth terminates women’s advisory group, slams ❛divisive agenda❜❞ — Military Times, Tue. 23-Sep-2025 — https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2025/09/23/hegseth-terminates-womens-advisory-group-slams-divisive-agenda/

November 11, 2025 at 8:38 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

🔃 {𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿} My notes about the article… ⤵

{𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿} My notes about the article…
Claim set
A Navy captain who would have been the first woman to lead a Naval Special Warfare command had her promotion cancelled two weeks before the ceremony.1,2
Sources allege the move reflects Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s hostility to women in combat roles; Pentagon interlocutors deny that and cite role/qualification or restructuring.1,2
Because of Navy ❝up-or-out❞ rules, cancelling the billet effectively ends the officer’s career.1,2
The episode lands amid broader Hegseth-era actions affecting senior women and gender-policy programs.3,4,5,6,8,9
Corroboration & Context
Secondary outlets (Daily Beast, Memeorandum index) echo CNN’s reporting on the revoked orders and competing explanations; CNN itself is referenced but not quoted here due to access limits.2
Separate, documented personnel shake-ups since mid-2025 include the removal of Naval Special Warfare Command’s admiral and the Navy Reserve chief.3,4
Hegseth replaced the Naval Academy’s first female superintendent and has dismantled women-focused programs/advisory bodies, framing them as ❝woke.❞5,8,9
AP contemporaneously recorded Hegseth urging a ❝return to the highest male standard❞ for combat roles, a stance disputed by female veterans who note standards are already gender-neutral.6

Chronology & Sequence
Fri. 22-Aug-2025: USNI reports removal of NSW Command leader; shortly after, Task & Purpose confirms both NSW and Navy Reserve chiefs ousted.3,4
Fri. 18-Jul-2025: WaPo reports superintendent Yvette Davids replaced.5
Tue. 30-Sep-2025: AP covers Hegseth’s Quantico address on ❝male standard.❞6
Tue. 29-Apr-2025: WPS program cancelation reported; later, DACOWITS termination reported in September.8,9
Tue. 11-Nov-2025: Raw Story aggregates CNN account of the cancelled NSW woman’s command orders.1,2
Risks & Trade-offs
Talent loss: Cancelling a top-ranked officer’s command undercuts merit signals within special operations and deters future female candidates.2,6
Force composition: Women constitute ~17.7% of active duty; policy shifts that reduce perceived fairness may harm retention/recruitment.4,6,7
Governance risk: If informal phones supersede standard orders, auditability and accountability degrade.2
Disagreement Radar (Fact / Interpretation / Method)
Fact: Orders revoked ≤ two weeks pre-ceremony; status of billet justification (role ❝not necessary❞) vs. ❝not a SEAL❞ qualification dispute.2

Interpretation: Critics infer gender bias; Pentagon-side sources frame it as organizational/qualification logic.1,2
Method: Reliance on anonymous sources vs. official documentation leaves room for revision when records or on-the-record statements surface.2
Confidence Bands (Tue. 11-Nov-2025)
High: Orders were revoked; the officer’s promotion/command did not proceed.1,2
Medium: Causal attribution to Hegseth’s direct intervention remains contested pending documentary evidence.1,2
Medium-High: Broader pattern of removals and program terminations affecting women is well-documented.3,4,5,8,9
Indicators to Watch
Official Navy paper trail (orders modification memos, billet justification, selection board rankings).2
IG/GAO inquiries or congressional oversight letters on NSW personnel decisions.3,4,5
Future flag-officer slates and special operations command assignments by gender.7
Retention/exit-survey signals among special operations-track women after Sept.–Nov. 2025.7

What Would Change This
Release of the underlying assignment orders and cancellation rationale.2
On-the-record statements from the officer, NSW leadership, or SECDEF staff.1,2
Independent confirmation from additional primary documents (e.g., fitreps, selection board minutes).2
Method & Scope
Primary narrative from Raw Story summarizing CNN; secondary corroboration via Daily Beast.1,2
Context built from AP reporting, USNI/Task & Purpose personnel records, Washington Post coverage, and DoD demographics.3,4,5,6,7,8,9
Bottom Line
A barrier-breaking NSW command for a female Navy captain was abruptly cancelled, ending her career under ❝up-or-out.❞ Allegations center on anti-women bias; official explanations cite structure/qualifications. The episode aligns with recent personnel and policy shifts disadvantaging women, but documentary proof of intent is still pending.1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9

November 11, 2025 at 8:38 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

SEALs flatten ❛weak❜ Hegseth as elite captain’s career ruined because she’s female: report ↘ www.rawstory.com/pete-hegseth...

SEALs flatten 'weak' Hegseth as elite captain's career ruined because she's female: report

The first woman nominated to lead the Naval Special Warfare command overseeing Navy SEALs had her promotion abruptly canceled — and military sources blame Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's hostility to...

www.rawstory.com

November 11, 2025 at 8:38 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

Bottom Line
Trump’s $2,000 ❝tariff dividend❞ is politically vivid but fiscally upside-down: one round costs ~$600B against ~$195B in FY2025 tariff receipts, raising deficits unless Congress both authorizes it and finds offsets.1,2,3,7
A yearly $2,000 dividend would add trillions to debt over a decade under independent scoring.2
ACA enhanced credits (~$35B/yr) and CPB (~$0.5B/yr) are tiny compared with a $600B dividend.6,16
Claims that PEPFAR was ❝shut down❞ overstate a freeze/stop-work episode; funding posture has been mixed and evolving.9,10,11

Citations:
1 ❝Trump says he’ll issue $2,000 tariff dividend to all except ❛high-income people❜❞ — ABC News, Sun. 09-Nov-2025 — https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-issue-2000-tariff-dividend-except-high/story?id=127356839
2 ❝Tariff Dividends Could Cost $600 Billion Per Year❞ — Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Mon. 10-Nov-2025 — https://www.crfb.org/blogs/tariff-dividends-could-cost-600-billion-year
3 ❝Tariff Revenue Soars in FY 2025 Amid Legal Uncertainty❞ — CRFB, Mon. 27-Oct-2025 — https://www.crfb.org/blogs/tariff-revenue-soars-fy-2025-amid-legal-uncertainty
4 ❝Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend Payments Would Explode the Deficit by Nearly $4 Trillion Over a Decade❞ — Common Dreams (Dean Baker op-ed), Mon. 10-Nov-2025 — https://www.commondreams.org/tag/tariffs
5 ❝AP FACT CHECK: Trump exaggerates revenue from tariffs❞ (updated) — Associated Press, Mon. 21-Apr-2025 — https://apnews.com/article/trump-fact-focus-tariffs-us-deficit-85c4c
6 ❝Understanding the ACA Subsidy Discussion❞ — CRFB, Wed. 05-Nov-2025 — https://www.crfb.org/blogs/understanding-aca-subsidy-discussion
7 ❝Trump proposed $2000 payments for Americans from tariff revenue: what to know❞ — PolitiFact, Mon. 10-Nov-2025 — https://www.politifact.com/article/2025/nov/10/Trump-tariff-dividend-2000-stimulus/
8 ❝Trump says Americans will get $2000 from tariffs, but …❞ — Yahoo Finance, Sun. 09-Nov-2025 — https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-americans-2-000-001500859.html
9 ❝IAS statement: Restore access to all PEPFAR-supported HIV services immediately❞ — International AIDS Society, Wed. 29-Jan-2025 — https://www.iasociety.org/ias-statement/restore-access-all-pepfar-supported-hiv-services-immediately

10 ❝The Trump Administration’s Foreign Aid Review: Status of PEPFAR❞ — KFF, Thu. 16-Oct-2025 — https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/the-trump-administrations-foreign-aid-review-status-of-pepfar/
11 ❝U.S. exempts security funds from aid freeze; little for humanitarian programs❞ — Reuters, Fri. 21-Feb-2025 — https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-exempts-security-funds-aid-freeze-little-humanitarian-programs-2025-02-21/
12 ❝Appellate judges question Trump’s authority to impose tariffs without Congress❞ — Associated Press, Wed. 30-Jul-2025 — https://apnews.com/article/4c289f51008f6a3a02939caa73ab5404
13 ❝The Estimated Effects of Enacting Selected Health Legislation❞ — CBO (PDF), Thu. 18-Sep-2025 — https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61734
14 ❝ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire❞ — KFF, Tue. 30-Sep-2025 — https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/aca-marketplace-premium-payments-would-more-than-double-on-average-next-year-if-enhanced-premium-tax-credits-expire/
15 ❝It’s ❛too late❜ to extend ACA subsidies without major disruptions, some states and lawmakers say❞ — Politico, Thu. 16-Oct-2025 — https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/16/its-too-late-to-extend-aca-subsidies-without-major-disruptions-some-states-and-lawmakers-say-00612001
16 ❝CPB Statement in Response to President Trump’s Proposed Rescissions Package and Budget Eliminating CPB Funding❞ — Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), Tue. 03-Jun-2025 — https://cpb.org/pressroom/cpb-statement-response-president-trumps-proposed-rescissions-package-and-budget
17 ❝Rescissions Proposals Pursuant to the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974❞ — Federal Register, Mon. 09-Jun-2025 — https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/06/09/2025-10377/rescissions-proposals-pursuant-to-the-congressional-budget-and-impoundment-control-act-of-1974

November 11, 2025 at 7:54 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

🔄 {𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿} My notes about the article… ⤵

{𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿} My notes about the article…
Claim Set
The article argues Trump’s promised ❝tariff dividend❞ of $2,000 per person (excluding ❝high-income people❞) would cost >$600B per round and thus balloon deficits; it contrasts this with far smaller line-items like ACA enhanced premium tax credits (~$35B/yr) and CPB (~$0.55B/yr).1,2,3,4,5,6
It asserts tariff revenues are ~$270B, implying a large shortfall versus any $2,000 payout round.4
It further claims Trump ❝shut down PEPFAR,❞ saving ~$6B/yr.4
Corroboration & Context
Proposal (on record): Trump publicly vowed a ❝dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high income people)❞; Treasury Sec. Bessent has not detailed delivery mechanics.1
Budget math (independent): CRFB estimates ~$600B per round for $2,000 payments to adults and children, consistent with simple population arithmetic; it further projects ~$6T added to deficits over ten years if paid annually.2
Tariff revenue (actuals): FY2025 customs duties totalled ~$195B (Treasury MT S, compiled by CRFB). Earlier-in-year averages cited by AP imply much lower annualized figures than $270B. Takeaway: $270B is high versus final FY2025 receipts.3,5
Baseline deficits: FY2025 deficit finalized at ~$1.8T; without offsets, any large new cash transfer worsens the trajectory.3

Legality/process: Direct federal cash payments require congressional appropriation; experts note the White House has not produced an operational plan.7,8
Evidence Chain / What’s Confirmed Now
Confirmed: Trump’s $2,000 ❝dividend❞ statement; no formal program; CRFB’s ~$600B/round estimate; FY2025 tariff receipts of ~$195B; FY2025 deficit ~$1.8T.1,2,3
Consistent but inference: A $600B round cannot be fully covered by current-pace tariff receipts; net effect is deficit-increasing absent offsets.2,3,5
Contested/overstated: Article’s $270B tariff-revenue figure (above FY2025 receipts); description that Trump ❝shut down PEPFAR.❞3,4,9,10,11
Chronology & Sequence
Jan.–Apr. 2025: Broad tariffs imposed; appellate court casts doubt on IEEPA tariff authority; AP documents lower tariff-revenue run-rate early in the year.5,12
Oct. 27, 2025: CRFB tallies FY2025 customs duties at $195B.3
Nov. 9-10, 2025: Trump reiterates $2,000 ❝dividend❞; CRFB posts $600B/round analysis.1,2
Civics & Accountability (Power Flow)
Congress’s ❝power of the purse❞: Any mass cash dividend must be authorized and appropriated by Congress, as with prior stimulus checks; campaign-style promises do not create spending authority.7,8

Tariff authority under review: Courts are testing the President’s unilateral tariff powers; a Supreme Court loss could erase revenue and create refund liabilities.12
Regulatory/Policy Trajectory
ACA enhanced subsidies: CBO/CRFB peg a full extension at ~$350B over 10 years (~$35B/yr); KFF/others project premium payment doubling for many if they lapse — context for the article’s comparison.6,13,14,15
CPB: Annual appropriation ~$535M (FY2025/26 window), orders of magnitude smaller than a $600B cash round.16,17
Risks & Trade-offs
Deficit impact: A $600B transfer funded by <$200B in annual tariff receipts implies hundreds of billions in new borrowing per round.2,3
Legal/revenue risk: If courts strike down key tariffs, revenues fall and refunds may be owed, worsening the fiscal hit of any dividends.3,12
Incidence: Tariffs are largely paid by importers/consumers; using them to fund dividends mixes regulatory and revenue aims and can raise prices.5
Disagreement Radar (Fact / Interpretation / Method)
Fact: Article’s $270B tariff-revenue figure vs. $195B documented FY2025 duties (methodology/timing gap).3,4
Interpretation: Characterizing PEPFAR as ❝shut down❞ vs. aid freeze/stop-work order with partial waivers and later funding actions.9,10,11

Confidence Bands (Tue. 11-Nov-2025)
High: Trump publicly promised a $2,000 ❝tariff dividend❞; CRFB’s ~$600B/round cost; FY2025 duties ~$195B; FY2025 deficit ~$1.8T.1,2,3
Medium-High: Any $2,000 round increases deficits substantially absent offsets and/or far higher sustained tariff receipts.2,3,5
Medium: Article’s $270B tariff-revenue figure; PEPFAR described as ❝shut down.❞3,4,9,10,11
Indicators to Watch
Statute/appropriation: Any bill text authorizing/appropriating ❝dividends.❞7,8
Tariff litigation: Supreme Court decision on IEEPA-based tariffs.12
Scorekeeping: CBO/CRFB scoring of any enacted dividend design (scope, income phase-outs, cadence).2,6
Receipts: Monthly Treasury Statement customs-duty line.3
What Would Change This
A materially different benefit design (e.g., smaller amount, less frequent, tighter phase-outs) or sustained tariff receipts several hundred billions above FY2025 levels; or Congress declines cash and opts for tax-code rebates instead.2,7,8
Method & Scope
Primary statements (President/Treasury); fiscal tallies (Treasury via CRFB); CBO/JCT/CRFB/KFF analyses for ACA context; health-aid sources (IAS, KFF) for PEPFAR status. PDFs/screens where applicable were checked; dates are rendered in ET.1,2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12

November 11, 2025 at 7:54 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

www.rawstory.com/trump-tariff...

Trump's desperate new gambit should have even Republicans screaming bloody murder

I learned basic arithmetic skills in third grade. I wasn’t exceptional — everyone in my public school third-grade class learned them. Of course, we all can now use computers to have calculations done ...

www.rawstory.com

November 11, 2025 at 7:54 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

Citations:
1 ❝Text — H.R.5371: Continuing Appropriations… and Extensions Act, 2026 (Division C, Sec. 213)❞ — Congress.gov, Tue. 11-Nov-2025 — https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/5371/text
2 ❝Shutdown Deal Would Let Senators Sue for Jack Smith Searches❞ — Bloomberg Law, Mon. 10-Nov-2025 — https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/shutdown-deal-would-let-senators-sue-over-jack-smith-searches
3 ❝John Thune secures provision in government funding bill letting senators sue for phone records seizure❞ — Politico, Mon. 10-Nov-2025 — https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/10/john-thune-government-funding-phone-records-seizure-00646094
4 ❝US Senate passes bill to end government shutdown, sends measure to House❞ — Reuters, Tue. 11-Nov-2025 — https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-compromise-sets-stage-end-government-shutdown-2025-11-10/
5 ❝Shutdown deal lets senators sue for $500k over data seizures in Jan. 6 probe❞ — CBS News (Live Updates), Tue. 11-Nov-2025 — https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-senate-lawsuits-500k-january-6/
6 ❝Republicans Use Shutdown Deal to Take Revenge Against Jack Smith❞ — The New Republic, Tue. 11-Nov-2025 — https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/dem-surrender-caucus-voted-pure-033426176.html

November 11, 2025 at 6:39 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

🔃 {𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿} My notes about the article… ⤵

{𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿} My notes about the article…
Claim set
The Senate’s shutdown package (H.R. 5371) includes Section 213 amending 2 U.S.C. §6628 to require provider/Senate notice for ❝Senate data❞ and to create a private cause of action with statutory damages of at least $500,000 per instance, attorney fees, and a sovereign-immunity waiver. Limited retroactivity applies from Jan. 1, 2022.1
Reporting ties the provision to undisclosed phone-record demands involving GOP senators during Special Counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6-related probes; the provision would newly authorize those senators to sue.2,3
The shutdown package advanced/passed the Senate and moved to the House as part of a deal to reopen government.4,5
TNR frames the move as eight Senate Democrats giving Republicans a path to ❝take revenge❞ on Jack Smith by enabling these suits.6
Corroboration & Context
The statutory text defines ❝Senate data,❞ mandates notice (providers and SAA), and sets a special rule: notice delays only when a senator is a formal criminal ❝target,❞ with court-ordered 60-day windows.1
The cause-of-action section specifies per-❝instance❞ damages (e.g., each device/account or nondisclosure order), five-year limitations from actual notice, and bars absolute/qualified immunity defenses.1

Bloomberg Law and Politico both connect the policy to Thune-led GOP efforts after revelations about Smith-era data requests; they describe minimum $500k damages and retroactivity.2,3
Civics & Accountability (Power Flow)
Congress is creating a private right of action against the United States, expressly waiving sovereign immunity and constraining secrecy orders vis-à-vis senators’ data.1
DoJ retains a path to delay notice only if a senator was formally designated a criminal target and a judge approved limited nondisclosure.1
Evidence Chain / What’s Confirmed Now
Exact language (notice mandate; damages; retroactivity) appears in H.R. 5371, Division C, Sec. 213.1
National outlets report Senate passage/advancement of the shutdown package.4,5
Specialist/legal press reports the Jack Smith linkage and expected beneficiaries (GOP senators).2,3
Risks & Trade-offs
Potential chilling of criminal inquiries touching Senate offices; costly litigation exposure for the U.S. (statutory damages per instance plus fees).1,2
Separation-of-powers friction: statutory override of standard secrecy orders for non-target senators; courts may face threshold fights over definitions and ❝instance❞ counting.1

Disagreement Radar (Fact / Interpretation / Method)
Interpretation: Critics call it a partisan payoff; proponents frame it as guardrails against DoJ overreach and for Speech-or-Debate protections.2,3
Method: Media characterizations vary on scope (❝millions❞) because total exposure depends on how many ❝instances❞ courts count. The $500k minimum per instance is textual.1,2
Confidence Bands (Tue. 11-Nov-2025)
High: H.R. 5371 contains Sec. 213 with notice, private right of action, $500k-per-instance damages, and Jan. 1, 2022 retroactivity.1
High: Coverage links the measure to Smith-era data seizures involving GOP senators.2,3
Medium-High: Senate passage/advancement toward ending the shutdown; House action pending/underway.4,5
Indicators to Watch
House floor timing and any amendment stripping or narrowing Sec. 213.4,5
Immediate filings by senators; early judicial rulings on ❝instance❞ counting and retroactivity.1
DoJ/carrier compliance guidance on notice requirements.1

What Would Change This
If the House removes the provision or a court enjoins it pre-effectiveness.4,5
Clarifying legislation or Senate rules guidance narrowing ❝Senate data❞ scope.1
Method & Scope
Primary source: Congress.gov text of H.R. 5371 (Division C, Sec. 213).1
Secondary: Bloomberg Law and Politico on provenance/intent; Reuters and CBS on bill movement/passage context.2,3,4,5
TNR article provides framing and emphasis on partisan stakes.6
Bottom Line
The shutdown package carries a little-noticed ❝Senate data❞ section: mandatory notice plus a new private right of action with $500k-per-instance damages, retroactive to 2022 — potentially inviting lawsuits over Jack Smith-era seizures.
The text is explicit on damages, immunity waiver, and retroactivity.1
Coverage ties the aim to GOP senators whose records were obtained in Jan. 6-related probes.2,3
Fate now hinges on House action and possible legal challenges.4,5

November 11, 2025 at 6:39 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

Précis of Malcolm Ferguson’s article follows ⤵

Précis of Malcolm Ferguson’s article
What's New
Tue. 11-Nov-2025, The New Republic reports the Senate’s shutdown package adds a ❝Senate data❞ provision: mandatory notice of data requests and a private right of action for undisclosed seizures.
Why It Matters
Statutory damages are set at a minimum $500,000 per violation (plus fees), with a waiver of sovereign immunity — exposure that could reach millions across multiple ❝instances.❞
Who It Could Affect
Republican senators whose phone/account data were quietly obtained during Jack Smith’s Jan. 6-related probes could now sue, as the measure applies retroactively to 01-Jan-2022.
Limits & Carve-Outs
If a senator is a formal criminal ❝target,❞ a judge can delay notice up to 60 days; that can serve as an affirmative defence for the government.
What to Watch
House action on the package; any immediate lawsuits; DoJ guidance and carrier compliance; potential court challenges to the retroactivity or immunity waiver.

November 11, 2025 at 6:22 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

newrepublic.com/post/203023/...

Republicans Use Shutdown Deal to Take Revenge Against Jack Smith

Eight Senate Democrats just gave Republicans the right to sue Jack Smith.

newrepublic.com

November 11, 2025 at 6:22 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

Précis of Rachel Kahn’s report follows ⤵

Précis of Rachel Kahn’s report
Ruling
Mon. 10-Nov-2025, Judge Dianna Gibson invalidated the legislature’s congressional map and adopted a Prop-4-compliant plan proposed by voting-rights groups.
Legal Reasoning
She found the legislature’s map was designed to advantage Republicans; the adopted plan was independently produced and barred partisan data.
Immediate Effect
The replacement map is projected to create Utah’s first Democratic-leaning U.S. House district in roughly 25 years.
Background
Voters approved Proposition 4 in 2018 to set up an independent redistricting commission and prohibit partisan inputs; lawmakers rolled it back in 2020, prompting a 2022 suit by the League of Women Voters of Utah and Mormon Women for Ethical Government.
What to Watch
Appeals and implementation timelines; whether the new lines stand for the coming midterms and how candidate fields adjust.

November 11, 2025 at 6:03 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

newrepublic.com/post/203025/...

Democrats Get Big Win in Red State After GOP’s Blatant Gerrymandering

Democrats have scored another win over Republicans in the gerrymandering war.

newrepublic.com

November 11, 2025 at 6:03 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

Citations:
1 ❝The Real Reason Dems Caved on Shutdown Will Make You Want to Scream❞ — The New Republic, Mon. 10-Nov-2025 — https://newrepublic.com/post/202948/real-reason-democrats-caved-shutdown-obamacare-midterms
2 ❝US Senate advances bill to end federal shutdown❞ — Reuters, Sun. 09-Nov-2025 — https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trump-takes-aim-obamacare-historic-federal-shutdown-hits-40th-day-2025-11-09/
3 ❝The Eight Senators Who Broke with Democrats to End the Government Shutdown❞ — TIME, Tue. 11-Nov-2025 — https://time.com/7332610/8-senators-broke-with-democrats-to-end-government-shutdown/
4 ❝ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire❞ — KFF, Tue. 30-Sep-2025 — https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/aca-marketplace-premium-payments-would-more-than-double-on-average-next-year-if-enhanced-premium-tax-credits-expire/
5 ❝4.8 Million People Will Lose Coverage in 2026 If Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire❞ — Urban Institute, Wed. 17-Sep-2025 — https://www.urban.org/research/publication/48-million-people-will-lose-coverage-2026-if-enhanced-premium-tax-credits
6 ❝Shutdown: the US Senate votes to end the blockade and adopt the budget❞ — Le Monde, Mon. 10-Nov-2025 — https://www.lemonde.fr/en/united-states/article/2025/11/10/shutdown-the-us-senate-votes-to-end-the-blockade-and-adopt-the-budget_6541109_133.html

November 11, 2025 at 5:52 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

🔄 {𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿} My notes about the article… ⤵

{𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿} My notes about the article…
Claim Set
On Sun. 09-Nov-2025, the Senate advanced a House-passed stopgap to reopen government; a 60-40 vote followed a deal with Democrats for a December vote on ACA subsidies, not an extension in the bill itself.1,2
Eight members of the Senate Democratic caucus — Durbin, Cortez Masto, Rosen, Hassan, Shaheen, Fetterman, Kaine — and independent Angus King — broke with party leadership to back the plan.1,3
Reporting cited by the article says some Democrats feared that extending enhanced ACA premium tax credits would deprive them of an election issue; letting them lapse would hand Democrats a cudgel.1
If the enhanced credits expire after 2025, average net premium payments for subsidized marketplace enrollees would more than double in 2026; Urban Institute projects about 4.8 million more uninsured relative to extension.4,5
Corroboration & Context
Reuters contemporaneously reports the 60-40 procedural vote on Sun. 09-Nov-2025, the 40-day length of the shutdown, and the deal’s promise of a December vote on subsidies.2
Multiple outlets describe this as the longest U.S. shutdown; coverage the next day details the eight cross-over votes and the absence of an immediate subsidy extension.3,6
KFF estimates a 114% increase in average net premiums for subsidized enrollees if enhanced credits lapse in 2026.4

Urban Institute’s microsimulation estimates 4.8M more uninsured and identifies states (e.g., MS, SC, TN, TX, GA) with steep drops in subsidized enrolment if credits expire.5
Chronology & Sequence
Shutdown began Tue. 01-Oct-2025; Senate advanced reopening measure Sun. 09-Nov-2025; subsequent votes and House action still required as of Mon. 10-Nov-2025.2,6
Civics & Accountability (Power Flow)
Senate required 60 votes to overcome a filibuster; GOP leaders secured eight cross-over votes after agreeing only to a future subsidies vote. House action and presidential signature remained necessary.2,6
The article relays anxieties (via NYT) about potential rules changes and electoral calculus; these are reported motivations, not formal Senate actions.1
Evidence Chain / What’s Confirmed Now
Names of the eight senators: reported by TNR and mainstream outlets; aligned lists.1,3
No enacted extension in the stopgap; only a promised vote window.2,6
Quantified impacts if credits lapse: KFF (payments more than double for subsidized enrollees); Urban Institute (≈4.8M uninsured).4,5

Risks & Trade-offs
Policy risk: Lapse raises financial barriers, shrinking marketplace enrolment and worsening risk pools, which can feed back into higher premiums.4,5
Political risk: If the December vote fails in either chamber, Democrats own the trade-off of reopening government without securing the extension.2,6
Disagreement Radar (Fact / Interpretation / Method)
Interpretation: Supporters argue reopening enables a clean vote later; critics say the leverage was surrendered and outcomes are uncertain.2,6
Method: Impact estimates differ by model and assumptions (e.g., rate filings, income distributions), but directionality (higher net payments; coverage losses) is consistent.4,5
Confidence Bands (Tue. 11-Nov-2025)
High: Senate advanced a CR without an ACA subsidy extension; a December vote was part of the deal.2,6
High: Eight named senators crossed over.1,3
Medium-High: If credits lapse, subsidized enrollees❛ net payments rise sharply; millions more uninsured.4,5
Medium: Reported electoral calculus and filibuster concerns influenced strategy.1
Indicators to Watch
Formal scheduling of the December subsidies vote; whip counts.2

House leadership signals on taking up any Senate-passed extension.6
Updated KFF/Urban/CBO projections as 2026 premiums finalize.4,5
What Would Change This
Enactment of an extension (temporary or permanent) before 2026 plan year deadlines.2,6
State-level subsidies offsetting federal lapse (partial mitigation).4
Method & Scope
Primary event records from wire/reporting; policy impact from KFF (methods described) and Urban Institute (HIPSM model).2,4,5,6
The motivational claims are attributed to NYT via TNR’s report; underlying NYT text not reproduced here.1
Bottom Line
The shutdown moved toward resolution after eight cross-over votes delivered a stopgap without extending ACA subsidies — the deal hinges on a later vote with uncertain prospects.
Without extension, subsidized enrollees❜ average net premiums would more than double in 2026.4
Urban Institute projects about 4.8 million more uninsured if credits lapse.5
Political calculus traded immediate policy certainty for a promise of a December vote.2,6

November 11, 2025 at 5:52 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

Précis of Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling’s article follows ⤵

Précis of Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling’s article
What Happened
After a 40-day shutdown, eight members of the Senate Democratic caucus backed a GOP funding deal that omitted an ACA subsidy extension, settling for a promised vote in December.
Who Broke Ranks
Dick Durbin, Catherine Cortez Masto, Jacky Rosen, Maggie Hassan, Jeanne Shaheen, John Fetterman, Tim Kaine, and independent Angus King.
Why It Happened (Per the Article)
Democrats feared that actually extending the enhanced premium tax credits would remove a potent campaign issue; allowing expiration gives them something to run on.
Why It Matters
If the enhanced credits lapse at year-end, analysts project net premiums would more than double on average for subsidized enrollees and millions could lose coverage.
The Stakes
Low-income regions and states with many marketplace enrollees would be hit hardest; the health-system ripple effects would raise costs for those who remain insured.

November 11, 2025 at 5:52 PM

𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1ɩ

@ajsdecepida.bsky.social

newrepublic.com/post/202948/...

The Real Reason Dems Caved on Shutdown Will Make You Want to Scream

Turns out, senators were only thinking of holding onto their own power.

newrepublic.com

November 11, 2025 at 5:52 PM