Rachel got saved by a get out of jail advantage she had nothing to do with. Sam ran his tribe pre merge and has played well to get target off him and then play his part in a couple votes like operation Italy

Sam*

Theory: Sam wins. We saw Genevieve and Rachel agree Sam would win if they went out 4th and 5th. Also, Rachel had fire in her glasses during the intro hinting she goes out in fire. Same got a huge edit but was slept on for a bit since Sierra went home, but could emerge to take out Rachel in fire