State of Artificial Intelligence
@aisoni.bsky.social
Human perspective on AI
State AI Reports at www.stateofartificialintelligence.com
AI Insights www.aitechnologies.co/blog_menu.html
State AI Reports at www.stateofartificialintelligence.com
AI Insights www.aitechnologies.co/blog_menu.html
13/ The same dynamics now apply to services and knowledge work—only faster, at global scale.
I hope it helps.
#ai #artificialintelligence #economy #business #technology #innovation
I hope it helps.
#ai #artificialintelligence #economy #business #technology #innovation
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
13/ The same dynamics now apply to services and knowledge work—only faster, at global scale.
I hope it helps.
#ai #artificialintelligence #economy #business #technology #innovation
I hope it helps.
#ai #artificialintelligence #economy #business #technology #innovation
12/ Markets widen, workflows rebalance toward oversight and risk management.
Perhaps in 10 years we'll see AI created more work than it replaced. Lower unit costs didn't end labour with the press; they redistributed and multiplied it.
Perhaps in 10 years we'll see AI created more work than it replaced. Lower unit costs didn't end labour with the press; they redistributed and multiplied it.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
12/ Markets widen, workflows rebalance toward oversight and risk management.
Perhaps in 10 years we'll see AI created more work than it replaced. Lower unit costs didn't end labour with the press; they redistributed and multiplied it.
Perhaps in 10 years we'll see AI created more work than it replaced. Lower unit costs didn't end labour with the press; they redistributed and multiplied it.
11/ Jevons explains the engine: efficiency collapses price, demand surges, consumption expands—so organisations create roles for quality, safety, compliance, and integration. Some jobs sunset. But this isn't mass redundancy.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
11/ Jevons explains the engine: efficiency collapses price, demand surges, consumption expands—so organisations create roles for quality, safety, compliance, and integration. Some jobs sunset. But this isn't mass redundancy.
10/ As AI produces more, the need to test, monitor, and protect grows faster.
The Pattern AI mirrors the printing press: volume up, assurance up.
The Pattern AI mirrors the printing press: volume up, assurance up.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
10/ As AI produces more, the need to test, monitor, and protect grows faster.
The Pattern AI mirrors the printing press: volume up, assurance up.
The Pattern AI mirrors the printing press: volume up, assurance up.
9/ When sites cost 30 instead of 100, the spared 70 goes to more features—chatbots, booking, simulation—and to assurance and cybersecurity that once lacked budget. Translation? Automated systems convert human work into quality assurance and verification.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
9/ When sites cost 30 instead of 100, the spared 70 goes to more features—chatbots, booking, simulation—and to assurance and cybersecurity that once lacked budget. Translation? Automated systems convert human work into quality assurance and verification.
8/ Assurance: cheaper production funded pre‑print review and quality control.
The Rise of AI Assurance Jobs Software development?
The Rise of AI Assurance Jobs Software development?
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
8/ Assurance: cheaper production funded pre‑print review and quality control.
The Rise of AI Assurance Jobs Software development?
The Rise of AI Assurance Jobs Software development?
7/ The Printing Press Lesson Before Gutenberg, books meant months of manual copying by monks. The press collapsed copying time to hours. Copyists lost their role, but jobs grew. Volume: lower costs massively increased books and publishers.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
7/ The Printing Press Lesson Before Gutenberg, books meant months of manual copying by monks. The press collapsed copying time to hours. Copyists lost their role, but jobs grew. Volume: lower costs massively increased books and publishers.
6/ Human‑driven taxis see steady demand, especially at peaks when fleets can't scale instantly. Cheaper rides ⇒ more rides ⇒ more total demand. The market grows, and humans benefit. That's Jevons in transport.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
6/ Human‑driven taxis see steady demand, especially at peaks when fleets can't scale instantly. Cheaper rides ⇒ more rides ⇒ more total demand. The market grows, and humans benefit. That's Jevons in transport.
5/ The Robotaxi Paradox Millions of robotaxi rides have been completed, with the market forecast to surge. Yet in San Francisco, robotaxis aren't replacing taxi drivers—they're replacing private cars.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
5/ The Robotaxi Paradox Millions of robotaxi rides have been completed, with the market forecast to surge. Yet in San Francisco, robotaxis aren't replacing taxi drivers—they're replacing private cars.
4/ When technology makes something far more efficient, prices drop and demand often grows so much that total usage rises. In services, this reorganises work. Lower costs unlock new users and use‑cases, which create coordination, assurance, and quality roles.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
4/ When technology makes something far more efficient, prices drop and demand often grows so much that total usage rises. In services, this reorganises work. Lower costs unlock new users and use‑cases, which create coordination, assurance, and quality roles.
3/ When unit costs plummet, new users flood in and markets expand. AI is triggering exactly this pattern—slashing prices, igniting demand, and creating more human work.
The Jevons paradox explains this.
The Jevons paradox explains this.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
3/ When unit costs plummet, new users flood in and markets expand. AI is triggering exactly this pattern—slashing prices, igniting demand, and creating more human work.
The Jevons paradox explains this.
The Jevons paradox explains this.
2/ When chatGPT arrived, it shocked many. Yes, we knew it was coming, but seeing it is different—you can't unsee it. What's happening echoes the printing press of the 1400s: costs collapse, volume explodes, and—counterintuitively—more jobs appear.
November 20, 2025 at 10:51 AM
2/ When chatGPT arrived, it shocked many. Yes, we knew it was coming, but seeing it is different—you can't unsee it. What's happening echoes the printing press of the 1400s: costs collapse, volume explodes, and—counterintuitively—more jobs appear.
14/ What is ‘bubbling up’ in the bottom of the public market that may reach the top in 20 years?
I will discuss it in part 2.
#ai #artificialintelligence #future #business #technology #innovation
I will discuss it in part 2.
#ai #artificialintelligence #future #business #technology #innovation
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
14/ What is ‘bubbling up’ in the bottom of the public market that may reach the top in 20 years?
I will discuss it in part 2.
#ai #artificialintelligence #future #business #technology #innovation
I will discuss it in part 2.
#ai #artificialintelligence #future #business #technology #innovation
13/ Many reasons, few on top of my mind, huge cost reduction (due to tech improvements) in producing goods and population decline.
So, where will the demand, pricing premium be in 2045? More hardware or software?
So, where will the demand, pricing premium be in 2045? More hardware or software?
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
13/ Many reasons, few on top of my mind, huge cost reduction (due to tech improvements) in producing goods and population decline.
So, where will the demand, pricing premium be in 2045? More hardware or software?
So, where will the demand, pricing premium be in 2045? More hardware or software?
12/ In other words, they offer solutions or products hard to ‘commoditise’.
Also, in very simple terms, from 1965 to date, demand for ‘physical’ goods is decreasing while demand for services/software is growing.
Also, in very simple terms, from 1965 to date, demand for ‘physical’ goods is decreasing while demand for services/software is growing.
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
12/ In other words, they offer solutions or products hard to ‘commoditise’.
Also, in very simple terms, from 1965 to date, demand for ‘physical’ goods is decreasing while demand for services/software is growing.
Also, in very simple terms, from 1965 to date, demand for ‘physical’ goods is decreasing while demand for services/software is growing.
11/ The third important aspect is that the most important companies of the time will have a ‘pricing premium’ due to either pure demand or better products/services (perceived or real) compared to the industry or both.
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
11/ The third important aspect is that the most important companies of the time will have a ‘pricing premium’ due to either pure demand or better products/services (perceived or real) compared to the industry or both.
10/ The second important aspect is while hardware/physical assets were the main product for years, now (since 2005) software/services are becoming as valuable as hardware (see CitiGroup, Microsoft, Meta etc. which are mostly software or service companies).
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
10/ The second important aspect is while hardware/physical assets were the main product for years, now (since 2005) software/services are becoming as valuable as hardware (see CitiGroup, Microsoft, Meta etc. which are mostly software or service companies).
9/ As now demand for Nvidia chips is huge, so it was energy demand in 65 and in 85 (why did it fade off? Too long here but important to understand it).
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
9/ As now demand for Nvidia chips is huge, so it was energy demand in 65 and in 85 (why did it fade off? Too long here but important to understand it).
8/ Top 5: General Motors, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, IBM, AT&T
—
Even from the few data above, there are many many insights that can be drawn. I can give here just a few hints. The most obvious and evident is that ‘demand’ drives the index.
—
Even from the few data above, there are many many insights that can be drawn. I can give here just a few hints. The most obvious and evident is that ‘demand’ drives the index.
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
8/ Top 5: General Motors, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, IBM, AT&T
—
Even from the few data above, there are many many insights that can be drawn. I can give here just a few hints. The most obvious and evident is that ‘demand’ drives the index.
—
Even from the few data above, there are many many insights that can be drawn. I can give here just a few hints. The most obvious and evident is that ‘demand’ drives the index.
7/ hardware(intel, ibm,cisco) software microsoft, oracle
S&P 1985 top sector: energy
Top 5: Exxon Mobil, IBM, General Electric, Philip Morris, General Motors
Cars, machines and consumer industries drive energy demand
S&P 1965 top sector: industrials
S&P 1985 top sector: energy
Top 5: Exxon Mobil, IBM, General Electric, Philip Morris, General Motors
Cars, machines and consumer industries drive energy demand
S&P 1965 top sector: industrials
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
7/ hardware(intel, ibm,cisco) software microsoft, oracle
S&P 1985 top sector: energy
Top 5: Exxon Mobil, IBM, General Electric, Philip Morris, General Motors
Cars, machines and consumer industries drive energy demand
S&P 1965 top sector: industrials
S&P 1985 top sector: energy
Top 5: Exxon Mobil, IBM, General Electric, Philip Morris, General Motors
Cars, machines and consumer industries drive energy demand
S&P 1965 top sector: industrials
6/ S&P 500 2025 top sector: Technology
Top 5: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon.
Hardware (nvidia, broadcom, apple) oracle, microsoft mostly software
S&P 500 2005 top sector: Technology
Top 5: Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, CitiGroup, Procter&Gamble
Top 5: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon.
Hardware (nvidia, broadcom, apple) oracle, microsoft mostly software
S&P 500 2005 top sector: Technology
Top 5: Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, CitiGroup, Procter&Gamble
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
6/ S&P 500 2025 top sector: Technology
Top 5: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon.
Hardware (nvidia, broadcom, apple) oracle, microsoft mostly software
S&P 500 2005 top sector: Technology
Top 5: Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, CitiGroup, Procter&Gamble
Top 5: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon.
Hardware (nvidia, broadcom, apple) oracle, microsoft mostly software
S&P 500 2005 top sector: Technology
Top 5: Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, CitiGroup, Procter&Gamble
5/ As you know, the S&P 500 is an index with a basket of the most important (valuable?) public companies in the world at any given time.
Since it started in the 50s, I can go back in time and check what the top 5 companies (by market cap) and the main sector were:
Since it started in the 50s, I can go back in time and check what the top 5 companies (by market cap) and the main sector were:
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
5/ As you know, the S&P 500 is an index with a basket of the most important (valuable?) public companies in the world at any given time.
Since it started in the 50s, I can go back in time and check what the top 5 companies (by market cap) and the main sector were:
Since it started in the 50s, I can go back in time and check what the top 5 companies (by market cap) and the main sector were:
4/ Of course, what follows is purely speculative thought, possibly grounded in reasoning, yet not to be considered as investment advice.
As I enjoyed writing it, I hope you will find it at least interesting to go through.
As I enjoyed writing it, I hope you will find it at least interesting to go through.
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
4/ Of course, what follows is purely speculative thought, possibly grounded in reasoning, yet not to be considered as investment advice.
As I enjoyed writing it, I hope you will find it at least interesting to go through.
As I enjoyed writing it, I hope you will find it at least interesting to go through.
3/ Given the historical data or S&P 500 (and the companies composing the index over the years), what I know about the tech industry today and its potential future, I attempt to infer what the top companies in 2045 will be (by market cap weight in the index).
November 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
3/ Given the historical data or S&P 500 (and the companies composing the index over the years), what I know about the tech industry today and its potential future, I attempt to infer what the top companies in 2045 will be (by market cap weight in the index).