Aidan Milliff
@aidanmilliff.com
Political scientist
https://www.aidanmilliff.com
https://www.aidanmilliff.com
Congrats Jay, this looks awesome.
November 7, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Congrats Jay, this looks awesome.
Co-authored with Paolo Bertolotti, Fotini Christia, and Ali Jadbabaie all at @mit.edu IDSS.
If you work on security, IR, or conflict data — hope you’ll give it a read.
If you (or your students) want a presentation on the work, hit me up!
#dronewarfare #civilianimpact #IR #politicalmethodology
If you work on security, IR, or conflict data — hope you’ll give it a read.
If you (or your students) want a presentation on the work, hit me up!
#dronewarfare #civilianimpact #IR #politicalmethodology
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Co-authored with Paolo Bertolotti, Fotini Christia, and Ali Jadbabaie all at @mit.edu IDSS.
If you work on security, IR, or conflict data — hope you’ll give it a read.
If you (or your students) want a presentation on the work, hit me up!
#dronewarfare #civilianimpact #IR #politicalmethodology
If you work on security, IR, or conflict data — hope you’ll give it a read.
If you (or your students) want a presentation on the work, hit me up!
#dronewarfare #civilianimpact #IR #politicalmethodology
⚙️ Why it matters:
Civilian disruption shapes attitudes, legitimacy, and stability.
Digital data can measure war’s unseen effects
These are the kinds of hidden costs policymakers usually miss.
Civilian disruption shapes attitudes, legitimacy, and stability.
Digital data can measure war’s unseen effects
These are the kinds of hidden costs policymakers usually miss.
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
⚙️ Why it matters:
Civilian disruption shapes attitudes, legitimacy, and stability.
Digital data can measure war’s unseen effects
These are the kinds of hidden costs policymakers usually miss.
Civilian disruption shapes attitudes, legitimacy, and stability.
Digital data can measure war’s unseen effects
These are the kinds of hidden costs policymakers usually miss.
🧠 Interpretation:
Even “precise” warfare alters daily life.
Fear, uncertainty, and displacement ripple through communities — long after the explosion stops.
A reminder: low-casualty ≠ low-impact.
Even “precise” warfare alters daily life.
Fear, uncertainty, and displacement ripple through communities — long after the explosion stops.
A reminder: low-casualty ≠ low-impact.
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
🧠 Interpretation:
Even “precise” warfare alters daily life.
Fear, uncertainty, and displacement ripple through communities — long after the explosion stops.
A reminder: low-casualty ≠ low-impact.
Even “precise” warfare alters daily life.
Fear, uncertainty, and displacement ripple through communities — long after the explosion stops.
A reminder: low-casualty ≠ low-impact.
💥 Results:
On strike days, mobility of civilians in affected zones jumped ~24% — roughly 6.5 km more movement than usual.
Thousands left strike areas, and many stayed away for weeks.
Drone campaigns produce major non-lethal civilian disruption.
On strike days, mobility of civilians in affected zones jumped ~24% — roughly 6.5 km more movement than usual.
Thousands left strike areas, and many stayed away for weeks.
Drone campaigns produce major non-lethal civilian disruption.
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
💥 Results:
On strike days, mobility of civilians in affected zones jumped ~24% — roughly 6.5 km more movement than usual.
Thousands left strike areas, and many stayed away for weeks.
Drone campaigns produce major non-lethal civilian disruption.
On strike days, mobility of civilians in affected zones jumped ~24% — roughly 6.5 km more movement than usual.
Thousands left strike areas, and many stayed away for weeks.
Drone campaigns produce major non-lethal civilian disruption.
📱 Method:
We link anonymized call-detail records (CDRs) from ~6 million Yemeni cellphone users with U.S. drone strike data (2010–2012).
Event-study design → observe civilian mobility before/after strikes.
CDR data reveal real behavioral shifts invisible in official reporting.
We link anonymized call-detail records (CDRs) from ~6 million Yemeni cellphone users with U.S. drone strike data (2010–2012).
Event-study design → observe civilian mobility before/after strikes.
CDR data reveal real behavioral shifts invisible in official reporting.
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
📱 Method:
We link anonymized call-detail records (CDRs) from ~6 million Yemeni cellphone users with U.S. drone strike data (2010–2012).
Event-study design → observe civilian mobility before/after strikes.
CDR data reveal real behavioral shifts invisible in official reporting.
We link anonymized call-detail records (CDRs) from ~6 million Yemeni cellphone users with U.S. drone strike data (2010–2012).
Event-study design → observe civilian mobility before/after strikes.
CDR data reveal real behavioral shifts invisible in official reporting.
When is it coming out?! I am looking forward to reading.
October 16, 2025 at 2:54 PM
When is it coming out?! I am looking forward to reading.
And here are links.
@macartan.bsky.social : macartan.github.io/teaching/how...
@chrisblattman.bsky.social : chrisblattman.com/blog/2010/02...
Miller et al.: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
@brendannyhan.bsky.social : thepoliticalmethodologist.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
@macartan.bsky.social : macartan.github.io/teaching/how...
@chrisblattman.bsky.social : chrisblattman.com/blog/2010/02...
Miller et al.: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
@brendannyhan.bsky.social : thepoliticalmethodologist.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
How to critique | Macartan Humphreys
critiquing
macartan.github.io
September 1, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Bottom line: Drone campaigns aren't necessarily as "surgical" as advertised. Non-lethal collateral damage should factor into strategic and ethical debates about their use in counterterrorism.
Find out more in (a preprint of) the full paper: aidanmilliff.com/publication/...
Find out more in (a preprint of) the full paper: aidanmilliff.com/publication/...
aidanmilliff.com
August 20, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Bottom line: Drone campaigns aren't necessarily as "surgical" as advertised. Non-lethal collateral damage should factor into strategic and ethical debates about their use in counterterrorism.
Find out more in (a preprint of) the full paper: aidanmilliff.com/publication/...
Find out more in (a preprint of) the full paper: aidanmilliff.com/publication/...
Drones cause major disruption, even without civilian casualties.
• Nearby mobility jumps 24% on strike days
• 5.3% of exposed people leave their homes
• 1.2% remain displaced for over a month
Drones cause more displacement than similarly-deadly suicide bombings, gun attacks.
🧵: 2/3
• Nearby mobility jumps 24% on strike days
• 5.3% of exposed people leave their homes
• 1.2% remain displaced for over a month
Drones cause more displacement than similarly-deadly suicide bombings, gun attacks.
🧵: 2/3
August 20, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Drones cause major disruption, even without civilian casualties.
• Nearby mobility jumps 24% on strike days
• 5.3% of exposed people leave their homes
• 1.2% remain displaced for over a month
Drones cause more displacement than similarly-deadly suicide bombings, gun attacks.
🧵: 2/3
• Nearby mobility jumps 24% on strike days
• 5.3% of exposed people leave their homes
• 1.2% remain displaced for over a month
Drones cause more displacement than similarly-deadly suicide bombings, gun attacks.
🧵: 2/3