A hot spell looks increasingly likely in the UK next weekend & early the following week

Here’s the box and whiskers from ECMWF for London

High 20s / low 30s Celsius most likely

But there’s a lot of spread (large boxes = uncertainty), from low 20s to mid 30s

June record temp is 35.6C, set in 1976

Ready to go with today’s Weather Studio Live with the legendary @alexdeakin.bsky.social

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The UK’s winter weather still at a crossroads end of the upcoming week.

The cold-ish southeasterly either turns into a very mild southwesterly or a very cold easterly.

Factors such as the MJO (increase in Pacific tropical rain) and polar vortex likely to influence but to an uncertain extent

January 2025: Whilst the UK's mean temperature was 0.9C below average, Europe was 2.51C warmer than the 1991-2020 average.

This partly explains why the upcoming easterly winds aren't as cold as you might expect in February

Altnaharra in northwest Scotland is currently almost 30 degrees warmer than it was 48 hours ago (via weatherobs.com)

Whilst wind gusts have exceeded 90mph, here are the *sustained* winds up to 8am Saturday from @roostweather.bsky.social

In west Wales, Storm Force 10 (>55mph) and, in Aberdaron, Violent Storm Force 11 (>64mph).

Not far off Hurricane Force.

Finally, here's the 48-hour temperature through the weekend for one location (near Hull), which starts at near freezing on Saturday and ends up approaching 16C.

The winds will bring much milder air from the Atlantic.

Here are the increases in maximum and minimum temperatures during the next few days.

Saturday's maximum temperatures are likely to be towards the end of the day in many places.

It will be windy all weekend, here are the maximum wind gusts on Saturday and Sunday.

Next, here's the forecast snow depth at 12pm Saturday vs 12pm Sunday.

5-10cm even at lower levels across parts of northern England and Scotland by midday Saturday, 20-40cm over hills, before a rapid thaw later in the day.

Storm Bert will bring multiple hazards to the UK this weekend but also significant contrasts from place to place and from hour to hour.

Here's a thread of graphics that highlight some of those contrasts.

First, a snapshot at 7am on Saturday - wet, windy and mild for some, heavy snow for others:

It turns significantly colder in the north during the next few days but the arrival rain-bearing Atlantic systems delay the arrival of cold air in the south until late Tuesday. As the rain mixes with cold air, the greatest risk of snow is over northern hills - see Met Office warnings.