Tesla is +12% since the Aug-1st court ruling that Autopilot was 1/3 to blame for a wrongful death ($243M damage award or 54% of 1H 2025 net profit ex-credits & BTC gains).

This report shows how Musk blatantly released positive catalysts to prevent a sell-off.

open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...

Here are my final Tesla delivery estimates for this quarter. I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 3.0% average over the last 12 quarters.

Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956

Tesla's Global inventory increased from 77,000 at the end of Q4 2024 to 101,000 at the end of Q1 2025. A similar increase is expected this quarter, with production running higher than deliveries because of limited demand.

The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover.

Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12):
• Q1 2025: 116,119 units
• Q2 2025: 109,520 units

Here are two data points on what could happen when the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit in the US is canceled:

• In France, the €5,000 Ecological Bonus was canceled in Dec 2023. Tesla's YTD sales are down by 36%

• In Germany, the €4,500 Environmental Bonus ended in Dec 2023. Tesla's YTD sales dropped 41%

The one way to save money and jobs….

Good morning to everyone who likes seeing Peter Thiel so so so scared ONLY

Me leaving the dentist’s office wondering: