Alexander Agadjanian
@agadjanian.bsky.social
political science PhD candidate at UC Berkeley | Interests: race, identity, political psychology + behavior, public opinion | 🇦🇲🇸🇻
https://sites.google.com/view/alexander-agadjanian/home
https://sites.google.com/view/alexander-agadjanian/home
Department floor is having a halloween door decor contest, I think our office wins for scariest @antoniaalksnis.bsky.social
October 31, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Department floor is having a halloween door decor contest, I think our office wins for scariest @antoniaalksnis.bsky.social
Putting aside my warriors hate to remember another great moment in acknowledgements history
October 16, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Putting aside my warriors hate to remember another great moment in acknowledgements history
Very creative & well-done new @thejop.bsky.social: 🇩🇪 far-right support ⬆️ among people living near outdoor swimming pools when you enter summer months (when these pools become popular) -- but only in areas that have more immigrants.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
May 7, 2025 at 12:06 AM
Very creative & well-done new @thejop.bsky.social: 🇩🇪 far-right support ⬆️ among people living near outdoor swimming pools when you enter summer months (when these pools become popular) -- but only in areas that have more immigrants.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
Biennial update on racial resentment trends in the CES: after a white Dems shift *away* from racially liberal trajectory in 2022, we're back in that direction in 2024.
April 7, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Biennial update on racial resentment trends in the CES: after a white Dems shift *away* from racially liberal trajectory in 2022, we're back in that direction in 2024.
Interesting new JEPS on POC solidarity building. Besides substantive contribution, another example of getting creative with experiments to learn about mechanisms (vs. conventional mediation analysis-only).
On a very different topic, here's another good example along these methodological lines
On a very different topic, here's another good example along these methodological lines
March 24, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Interesting new JEPS on POC solidarity building. Besides substantive contribution, another example of getting creative with experiments to learn about mechanisms (vs. conventional mediation analysis-only).
On a very different topic, here's another good example along these methodological lines
On a very different topic, here's another good example along these methodological lines
Interesting new paper on this topic (www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...) -- misinfo itself has more direct, widespread consequences, but factual beliefs again seem to be outside of the equation
March 2, 2025 at 3:13 AM
Interesting new paper on this topic (www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...) -- misinfo itself has more direct, widespread consequences, but factual beliefs again seem to be outside of the equation
- Two cites in this paragraph don't contain experimental evidence.
- The review piece doesn't seem to either and even mentions need for more causal evidence.
- Loomba et al. is an RCT but at least 2 other studies find contrasting results.
- The review piece doesn't seem to either and even mentions need for more causal evidence.
- Loomba et al. is an RCT but at least 2 other studies find contrasting results.
December 27, 2024 at 2:48 AM
- Two cites in this paragraph don't contain experimental evidence.
- The review piece doesn't seem to either and even mentions need for more causal evidence.
- Loomba et al. is an RCT but at least 2 other studies find contrasting results.
- The review piece doesn't seem to either and even mentions need for more causal evidence.
- Loomba et al. is an RCT but at least 2 other studies find contrasting results.
Interesting perspectives. Feels like some disconnect from standard polisci accounts (e.g. effects of misinfo/fact-checks often have limited scope, but that doesn't mean misinfo is overall inconsequential www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...).
Was also curious about this part and dug around on the cites...
Was also curious about this part and dug around on the cites...
December 27, 2024 at 2:48 AM
Interesting perspectives. Feels like some disconnect from standard polisci accounts (e.g. effects of misinfo/fact-checks often have limited scope, but that doesn't mean misinfo is overall inconsequential www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...).
Was also curious about this part and dug around on the cites...
Was also curious about this part and dug around on the cites...
Friends don't let friends capture operational ideology via self-described ideological ratings, a series
December 23, 2024 at 6:16 AM
Friends don't let friends capture operational ideology via self-described ideological ratings, a series
A little more detail on what's going on w/Afro-Latino pop. Authors have this great figure that shows among people who choose Hisp, white, etc. at all, are they only choosing that label or other labels as well?
December 16, 2024 at 7:34 PM
A little more detail on what's going on w/Afro-Latino pop. Authors have this great figure that shows among people who choose Hisp, white, etc. at all, are they only choosing that label or other labels as well?
It's wild to see some 2024 election polls show Hispanic vote split almost evenly across Biden/Trump (e.g. twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/st...)
Took a quick look at what various polls in last month show + how they compare to same time last cycle (Dec. 2019). For 2024, even split is actually not that typical
Took a quick look at what various polls in last month show + how they compare to same time last cycle (Dec. 2019). For 2024, even split is actually not that typical
January 7, 2024 at 10:09 AM
It's wild to see some 2024 election polls show Hispanic vote split almost evenly across Biden/Trump (e.g. twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/st...)
Took a quick look at what various polls in last month show + how they compare to same time last cycle (Dec. 2019). For 2024, even split is actually not that typical
Took a quick look at what various polls in last month show + how they compare to same time last cycle (Dec. 2019). For 2024, even split is actually not that typical
For any Premier League fans out there: a look at team performance relative to what we'd expect from expected goals now that we're ~halfway through the season. Hoping some of this underperforming (Chelsea) and overperforming (Tottenham) balances out the rest of the way 😬
December 31, 2023 at 10:24 PM
For any Premier League fans out there: a look at team performance relative to what we'd expect from expected goals now that we're ~halfway through the season. Hoping some of this underperforming (Chelsea) and overperforming (Tottenham) balances out the rest of the way 😬
Agreed it's good to be wary of attrition - though this is about attrition on treatment assignment, not on outcomes (since we don't know outcome levels for who didn't complete the study). Appendix A2 has some rough checks but not dispositive. In general true degree of attrition bias is unknowable
December 5, 2023 at 8:10 AM
Agreed it's good to be wary of attrition - though this is about attrition on treatment assignment, not on outcomes (since we don't know outcome levels for who didn't complete the study). Appendix A2 has some rough checks but not dispositive. In general true degree of attrition bias is unknowable
More on genetic ancestry tests from a great new American Journal of Sociology piece (using an RCT): these tests have important consequences for facets of whites' identities, but notably *do not* cause changes to how whites racially self-identify www.suleyaylaci.com/wp-content/u...
December 2, 2023 at 2:48 AM
More on genetic ancestry tests from a great new American Journal of Sociology piece (using an RCT): these tests have important consequences for facets of whites' identities, but notably *do not* cause changes to how whites racially self-identify www.suleyaylaci.com/wp-content/u...
Me watching another paper I reviewed eventually get accepted for publication while still working through some roadblocks in my own research
November 22, 2023 at 10:49 PM
Me watching another paper I reviewed eventually get accepted for publication while still working through some roadblocks in my own research
Ah I see. Yeah that's a good point and could obscure some over time error decline. Though a very rough check on this (looking at A or B graded pollsters) doesn't change story much. Can look for certain pollsters if you have any in mind
November 22, 2023 at 7:28 AM
Ah I see. Yeah that's a good point and could obscure some over time error decline. Though a very rough check on this (looking at A or B graded pollsters) doesn't change story much. Can look for certain pollsters if you have any in mind
Hard to say how predictive polls were this far out in '20 (few on record) but generally no consistent signs of declining error closer to elec. day
November 21, 2023 at 8:23 AM
Hard to say how predictive polls were this far out in '20 (few on record) but generally no consistent signs of declining error closer to elec. day
Are presidential election polls predictive this far out from election day? Lot of skepticism, but as @gelliottmorris.bsky.social and I have shown, current era might contrast from earlier decades, e.g. poll predictiveness didn't change much over ~year before 2016.
An update to now include 2020...
An update to now include 2020...
November 21, 2023 at 8:23 AM
Are presidential election polls predictive this far out from election day? Lot of skepticism, but as @gelliottmorris.bsky.social and I have shown, current era might contrast from earlier decades, e.g. poll predictiveness didn't change much over ~year before 2016.
An update to now include 2020...
An update to now include 2020...
Really great, comprehensive paper on consequences of popular pro-police TV shows:
-cops make more victimless crime+drug possession arrests when followed by cameras
-no impact on public safety (solved crimes, amt of crime)
-some public attitudes around police improve
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
-cops make more victimless crime+drug possession arrests when followed by cameras
-no impact on public safety (solved crimes, amt of crime)
-some public attitudes around police improve
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
November 11, 2023 at 11:15 PM
Really great, comprehensive paper on consequences of popular pro-police TV shows:
-cops make more victimless crime+drug possession arrests when followed by cameras
-no impact on public safety (solved crimes, amt of crime)
-some public attitudes around police improve
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
-cops make more victimless crime+drug possession arrests when followed by cameras
-no impact on public safety (solved crimes, amt of crime)
-some public attitudes around police improve
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
A classic case of the Monday’s for someone in our department, you hate to see it
October 31, 2023 at 3:14 AM
A classic case of the Monday’s for someone in our department, you hate to see it
Last time USC football comes to Berkeley (RIP Pac-12)… never in doubt!!! (Just kidding it was, this team takes years off my life even though the season’s now meaningless 👍 👍 👍)
October 29, 2023 at 1:01 AM
Last time USC football comes to Berkeley (RIP Pac-12)… never in doubt!!! (Just kidding it was, this team takes years off my life even though the season’s now meaningless 👍 👍 👍)
Far from most important thing about this right now, but a check-in on partisan public opinion around Israel/Palestine (from earlier this year, to immediate reaction, to a few weeks on):
-everyone's making their minds up more (not sure ⬇️)
-for Ds & Is, this means warmer to Palestine, for Rs, opposite
-everyone's making their minds up more (not sure ⬇️)
-for Ds & Is, this means warmer to Palestine, for Rs, opposite
October 28, 2023 at 6:11 PM
Far from most important thing about this right now, but a check-in on partisan public opinion around Israel/Palestine (from earlier this year, to immediate reaction, to a few weeks on):
-everyone's making their minds up more (not sure ⬇️)
-for Ds & Is, this means warmer to Palestine, for Rs, opposite
-everyone's making their minds up more (not sure ⬇️)
-for Ds & Is, this means warmer to Palestine, for Rs, opposite
Current bus options for commuting to dept in Berkeley (left) vs. when I was going to work in Boston (right). Take me back, I want to have a positive relationship with public transportation again 😭
October 25, 2023 at 8:50 PM
Current bus options for commuting to dept in Berkeley (left) vs. when I was going to work in Boston (right). Take me back, I want to have a positive relationship with public transportation again 😭
Our dept is hearing this talk later this week. Super interesting in and of itself but also in relation to other misperceptions work: this pattern of corrective info (a) affecting factual beliefs but (b) not affecting attitudes/behaviors is remarkable in how often it appears (& what it might imply)..
October 16, 2023 at 10:53 PM
Our dept is hearing this talk later this week. Super interesting in and of itself but also in relation to other misperceptions work: this pattern of corrective info (a) affecting factual beliefs but (b) not affecting attitudes/behaviors is remarkable in how often it appears (& what it might imply)..
A buggy whip throwback at a social science journal in the year 2023 statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/08/06/p...
October 14, 2023 at 5:40 PM
A buggy whip throwback at a social science journal in the year 2023 statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/08/06/p...