This plays out in real West Coast fisheries—Pacific hake, petrale sole, sablefish—where assessments update every 1-4 years. Climate-ready doesn't mean win-win. It means being transparent with communities about whether we're prioritizing conservation or catch.

We modeled fish populations under climate change and found consistent trade-offs. When productivity declined, adaptive management kept populations 42% larger but reduced harvest. When it increased, adaptive rules boosted harvest >100% but populations ran 40% smaller.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HTj...

Take-home: Indonesia’s reefs may be showing more resilience than expected, but cover alone doesn’t capture species shifts, functional change, or hidden vulnerability.

3/ The “shifted baseline” point is key: most data begin after the 1998 global bleaching event. What looks “stable” may already reflect reefs that declined before monitoring began.

2/ This stability is surprising given repeated mass bleaching and local disturbances.
So what’s going on? The authors suggest 4 possibilities:
• shifted baselines (post-1998 data dominate)
• averaging masks local losses & gains
• sampling biases
• true resilience of Indonesian reefs

wondering about a log scale to make the smaller values more visible, is it zero bounded?

Would love to hear more about what you’re up to!!

Love this optimism 👏

👋🥳