Adam Chernoff
@adamchernoff.bsky.social
I work with the professional sports betting group at @raspicks.bsky.social. 17+ years betting the NFL. Follow for all things football.
I think it’s great, love the threads. Do you see Allen’s legs being a big part of the game plan? Glenn’s defenses always seem so struggle against mobile QB’s.
December 12, 2024 at 3:26 AM
I think it’s great, love the threads. Do you see Allen’s legs being a big part of the game plan? Glenn’s defenses always seem so struggle against mobile QB’s.
I’ve seen you post more negatives about the Bills and their matchup here than almost any game. What’s the biggest advantages you see the other way around?
December 12, 2024 at 2:43 AM
I’ve seen you post more negatives about the Bills and their matchup here than almost any game. What’s the biggest advantages you see the other way around?
What can the Bills do to matchup better this week vs Detroit? How much are you worried about the Lions run game being too much?
December 11, 2024 at 5:47 AM
What can the Bills do to matchup better this week vs Detroit? How much are you worried about the Lions run game being too much?
What do you make of him allowing 30 receptions on his last 30 targets this season?
November 20, 2024 at 6:20 PM
What do you make of him allowing 30 receptions on his last 30 targets this season?
Would you expect the OL guys to all be back for SNF vs PHI?
November 18, 2024 at 10:18 PM
Would you expect the OL guys to all be back for SNF vs PHI?
Appreciate it. Thanks for your great breakdowns each week.
November 16, 2024 at 12:38 AM
Appreciate it. Thanks for your great breakdowns each week.
What’s the chance Johnson gets more involved? You had a similar take that was spot on for the Jets game where Davis broke out.
November 15, 2024 at 11:53 PM
What’s the chance Johnson gets more involved? You had a similar take that was spot on for the Jets game where Davis broke out.
Now he is healthy, do we see more of it in higher leverage games/spots down the stretch you think?
November 15, 2024 at 11:30 PM
Now he is healthy, do we see more of it in higher leverage games/spots down the stretch you think?
From when I started in '07 to '18 it was always bettor vs bettor the sportsbook was an obscure go-between. Now sportsbooks with position themselves along side bettors who think everyone is in it together. So instead of blaming books for 30%+ hold they can't beat, bettors blame goes elsewhere. (3/3)
November 15, 2024 at 11:03 PM
From when I started in '07 to '18 it was always bettor vs bettor the sportsbook was an obscure go-between. Now sportsbooks with position themselves along side bettors who think everyone is in it together. So instead of blaming books for 30%+ hold they can't beat, bettors blame goes elsewhere. (3/3)
Imagine the California lottery posting something like, "don't you hate when you miss your pick 3 by just one number?" or MGM Casino in LV tweeting, "16 vs a dealer 10, are you and the squad in the group chat hitting or staying?" It can't happen but sportsbooks have side stepped all of it. (2/3)
November 15, 2024 at 11:03 PM
Imagine the California lottery posting something like, "don't you hate when you miss your pick 3 by just one number?" or MGM Casino in LV tweeting, "16 vs a dealer 10, are you and the squad in the group chat hitting or staying?" It can't happen but sportsbooks have side stepped all of it. (2/3)
I am talking about the lack of restrictions on what sportsbooks can say in ads.
For example, FanDuel/DraftKings use celebrities, post memes, highlight videos, content, parlays, bad beats. They have been able to blur the line between themselves and bettors and exist in every day conversation. (1/3)
For example, FanDuel/DraftKings use celebrities, post memes, highlight videos, content, parlays, bad beats. They have been able to blur the line between themselves and bettors and exist in every day conversation. (1/3)
November 15, 2024 at 11:03 PM
I am talking about the lack of restrictions on what sportsbooks can say in ads.
For example, FanDuel/DraftKings use celebrities, post memes, highlight videos, content, parlays, bad beats. They have been able to blur the line between themselves and bettors and exist in every day conversation. (1/3)
For example, FanDuel/DraftKings use celebrities, post memes, highlight videos, content, parlays, bad beats. They have been able to blur the line between themselves and bettors and exist in every day conversation. (1/3)
I've been in the betting industry for 17+ years and worked through regulation in 3 different countries. The most concerning part of the US roll out has been the language permitted to be used by sportsbooks in ads which blur the lines between bettor and bookmaker, which causes issues you reference.
November 15, 2024 at 10:40 PM
I've been in the betting industry for 17+ years and worked through regulation in 3 different countries. The most concerning part of the US roll out has been the language permitted to be used by sportsbooks in ads which blur the lines between bettor and bookmaker, which causes issues you reference.
I know 3rd down metrics are tough to sustain, but can an argument be made for KC and Mahomes being a team to sustain them given how their offense operates due to coverages against them? They seem to be content playing into 3rd and short this season knowing they are superior in short yardage.
November 15, 2024 at 10:32 PM
I know 3rd down metrics are tough to sustain, but can an argument be made for KC and Mahomes being a team to sustain them given how their offense operates due to coverages against them? They seem to be content playing into 3rd and short this season knowing they are superior in short yardage.
Did you do any manual adjustment for the BUF injuries for the Allen prop?
November 15, 2024 at 7:04 PM
Did you do any manual adjustment for the BUF injuries for the Allen prop?
How much of this season’s drop is on Daniels playing injured?
November 15, 2024 at 5:23 PM
How much of this season’s drop is on Daniels playing injured?
Great from you as usual. Makes me wonder just what in the world happened last season and how bad that fit was.
November 15, 2024 at 4:51 PM
Great from you as usual. Makes me wonder just what in the world happened last season and how bad that fit was.
Good notes around strength of schedule. If you had to predict an end of season defensive DVOA ranking, would you go better or worse than 8th?
November 15, 2024 at 4:50 PM
Good notes around strength of schedule. If you had to predict an end of season defensive DVOA ranking, would you go better or worse than 8th?
Are you buying into the trajectory the Eagles defense is on as a whole?
November 15, 2024 at 4:47 PM
Are you buying into the trajectory the Eagles defense is on as a whole?
Favorable matchup against the Titans?
November 14, 2024 at 11:54 PM
Favorable matchup against the Titans?
#Chiefs @ #Bills
KC +2.5 for me. Feels like a repeat of the SF game. Almost like the market is offput by backing KC. KC run DEF elite, BUF has to throw - but no Coleman/Kincaid. KC just finds a way and continues to manufacture points weekly. Could get LT help if Smith signed. JJSS back. KC wins.
KC +2.5 for me. Feels like a repeat of the SF game. Almost like the market is offput by backing KC. KC run DEF elite, BUF has to throw - but no Coleman/Kincaid. KC just finds a way and continues to manufacture points weekly. Could get LT help if Smith signed. JJSS back. KC wins.
November 14, 2024 at 7:21 PM
#Falcons @ #Broncos
DEN -2 for me. Should be a big home turnover for DEN who are playoff relevant. DEN stepping down in class after two tough road games where they showed well. ATL cannot pressure QB's. Comfy spot for DEN OL/QB/RB's. Opposite for ATL. DEN DL strong, will be problematic for Cousins.
DEN -2 for me. Should be a big home turnover for DEN who are playoff relevant. DEN stepping down in class after two tough road games where they showed well. ATL cannot pressure QB's. Comfy spot for DEN OL/QB/RB's. Opposite for ATL. DEN DL strong, will be problematic for Cousins.
November 14, 2024 at 7:21 PM
#Seahawks @ #49ers
SEA +6.5 for me. All in saving spot for SEA off the bye. MM cut leading tackler - message sent in locker room for finally healthy DEF. Too much stock being put into first game which was tough for new staff on short week. Geno rebounds with DK back after throwing game away vs LAR.
SEA +6.5 for me. All in saving spot for SEA off the bye. MM cut leading tackler - message sent in locker room for finally healthy DEF. Too much stock being put into first game which was tough for new staff on short week. Geno rebounds with DK back after throwing game away vs LAR.
November 14, 2024 at 7:21 PM
#Vikings @ #Titans
TEN +6 for me. SD and this MIN OFF have been playing at ceiling level much of the season. Coming back down to earth last two weeks. Closed 7 LW vs JAX/Jones, 6 here even with Levis is tough to justify. TEN DEF sneaky good, OFF quietly solid L3 weeks too can run here w both backs.
TEN +6 for me. SD and this MIN OFF have been playing at ceiling level much of the season. Coming back down to earth last two weeks. Closed 7 LW vs JAX/Jones, 6 here even with Levis is tough to justify. TEN DEF sneaky good, OFF quietly solid L3 weeks too can run here w both backs.
November 14, 2024 at 7:21 PM
#Jaguars @ #Lions
DET -14 for me, but it's pushing it. Played at better numbers. JAX has bye next week, if there was a time for DP to be fired, it's off an ugly loss here. Don't think there is fight in this team if down 10+ in 2H. DET have been great front runners all season, no letdowns from them.
DET -14 for me, but it's pushing it. Played at better numbers. JAX has bye next week, if there was a time for DP to be fired, it's off an ugly loss here. Don't think there is fight in this team if down 10+ in 2H. DET have been great front runners all season, no letdowns from them.
November 14, 2024 at 7:21 PM
#Raiders @ #Dolphins
No opinion. Pro money came in at LVR +8. New OC bump possible for LVR out of the bye. AP wants more ground game and emphasis on the run. Has not worked all season for LVR, what changes here? Huge win for MIA, but tough to lay margin with Hill clearly not 100%.
No opinion. Pro money came in at LVR +8. New OC bump possible for LVR out of the bye. AP wants more ground game and emphasis on the run. Has not worked all season for LVR, what changes here? Huge win for MIA, but tough to lay margin with Hill clearly not 100%.
November 14, 2024 at 7:21 PM