Stuart McDonald
@actuarybyday.bsky.social
Partner at LCP. Actuary.
Deputy Chair of the CMI.
MBE for services to Public Health.
Expect statistics and data.
Deputy Chair of the CMI.
MBE for services to Public Health.
Expect statistics and data.
You're right about NI. This report shows that the difference in NI contributions exceeds the difference in State Pension paid out. And more importantly, that State Pension paid out exceeds NI paid in for all income deciles.
I'll delete my tweet.
www.pensionspolicyinstitute.org.uk/media/1crf4o...
I'll delete my tweet.
www.pensionspolicyinstitute.org.uk/media/1crf4o...
November 8, 2025 at 12:34 PM
You're right about NI. This report shows that the difference in NI contributions exceeds the difference in State Pension paid out. And more importantly, that State Pension paid out exceeds NI paid in for all income deciles.
I'll delete my tweet.
www.pensionspolicyinstitute.org.uk/media/1crf4o...
I'll delete my tweet.
www.pensionspolicyinstitute.org.uk/media/1crf4o...
The paper includes charts and commentary showing that life expectancy is inversely correlated with poverty. All other literature in the field is consistent.
This ONS data shows that the most deprived group are twice as likely to die age 67-72 vs the least deprived. 👇
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
This ONS data shows that the most deprived group are twice as likely to die age 67-72 vs the least deprived. 👇
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Death registrations by sex, single year of age and IMD decile, England and Wales: 2023 to 2024 - Office for National Statistics
www.ons.gov.uk
November 8, 2025 at 12:09 PM
The paper includes charts and commentary showing that life expectancy is inversely correlated with poverty. All other literature in the field is consistent.
This ONS data shows that the most deprived group are twice as likely to die age 67-72 vs the least deprived. 👇
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
This ONS data shows that the most deprived group are twice as likely to die age 67-72 vs the least deprived. 👇
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Unfortunately, the remit of the SPA review is narrow. A huge redistribution of income and wealth is well beyond the scope.
I'm not attracted to the idea that since we can't do everything, we should do nothing. SPA increase is fiscally necessary so we have suggested a realistic mitigation.
I'm not attracted to the idea that since we can't do everything, we should do nothing. SPA increase is fiscally necessary so we have suggested a realistic mitigation.
November 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Unfortunately, the remit of the SPA review is narrow. A huge redistribution of income and wealth is well beyond the scope.
I'm not attracted to the idea that since we can't do everything, we should do nothing. SPA increase is fiscally necessary so we have suggested a realistic mitigation.
I'm not attracted to the idea that since we can't do everything, we should do nothing. SPA increase is fiscally necessary so we have suggested a realistic mitigation.
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Thanks @actuarybyday.bsky.social , good to work with you on this. If people are interested in the Telegraph write-up, hopefully this link will work: www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c0af53a...
Will you ever get to retire?
Dreams of retirement recede as policymakers grapple with making the state pension sustainable
www.telegraph.co.uk
November 8, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Thanks @actuarybyday.bsky.social , good to work with you on this. If people are interested in the Telegraph write-up, hopefully this link will work: www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c0af53a...
Only slightly correlated with income!? That is completely false. Affluence is THE strongest predictor of life expectancy other than age & sex. There's a 27-year difference in life expectancy between men living in deprived parts of Blackpool vs Kensington & Chelsea!
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Life expectancy and risk of death in 6791 communities in England from 2002 to 2019: high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data
In the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy declined in increasing
numbers of communities in England. To ensure that this trend does not continue or
worsen, there is a need for pro-equ...
www.thelancet.com
November 8, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Only slightly correlated with income!? That is completely false. Affluence is THE strongest predictor of life expectancy other than age & sex. There's a 27-year difference in life expectancy between men living in deprived parts of Blackpool vs Kensington & Chelsea!
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
We’re thinking more about the surviving spouse. And the important context that the people dying at this age are much more likely to be leaving debts than an inheritance. The State Pension is regressive, with affluent groups receiving it for 25-30 years while deprived groups die young.
November 8, 2025 at 10:13 AM
We’re thinking more about the surviving spouse. And the important context that the people dying at this age are much more likely to be leaving debts than an inheritance. The State Pension is regressive, with affluent groups receiving it for 25-30 years while deprived groups die young.
Yes, it would be payable to beneficiaries of those who sadly died within 5 years of SPA.
November 8, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Yes, it would be payable to beneficiaries of those who sadly died within 5 years of SPA.
Potentially, yes, depending on how Government might choose to implement the policy. Otherwise, it would be payable to their beneficiaries if they die within 5 years.
November 8, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Potentially, yes, depending on how Government might choose to implement the policy. Otherwise, it would be payable to their beneficiaries if they die within 5 years.
Here is some coverage of our report. Times and Telegraph are behind paywalls but the first link is accessible to all.
👉 www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...
👉 www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
👉 www.telegraph.co.uk/money/retire...
👉 www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...
👉 www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
👉 www.telegraph.co.uk/money/retire...
Should we increase state pension age by ONE year every decade
The qualifying age is currently 66 and is already set to rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028, but a Government review is under way to decide further increases.
www.thisismoney.co.uk
November 8, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Here is some coverage of our report. Times and Telegraph are behind paywalls but the first link is accessible to all.
👉 www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...
👉 www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
👉 www.telegraph.co.uk/money/retire...
👉 www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...
👉 www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
👉 www.telegraph.co.uk/money/retire...
3. Since life expectancy is so unequal, mitigate the impact of State Pension Age increases by guaranteeing a minimum 5-year payout to all who reach SPA. This ensures that those with shorter life expectancy, typically deprived groups, get something back for their National Insurance contributions.
November 8, 2025 at 9:38 AM
3. Since life expectancy is so unequal, mitigate the impact of State Pension Age increases by guaranteeing a minimum 5-year payout to all who reach SPA. This ensures that those with shorter life expectancy, typically deprived groups, get something back for their National Insurance contributions.
2. A 20-year average retirement implies that State Pension Age needs to go up quickly. We believe one year increase every decade is reasonable, though the maths says go faster.
November 8, 2025 at 9:38 AM
2. A 20-year average retirement implies that State Pension Age needs to go up quickly. We believe one year increase every decade is reasonable, though the maths says go faster.
Here are our key recommendations:
1. Tie the State Pension to life expectancy by setting the State Pension Age so that the average person receives it for 20 years.
Current retirees receive it for longer than 20 years on average (which may surprise people!)
1. Tie the State Pension to life expectancy by setting the State Pension Age so that the average person receives it for 20 years.
Current retirees receive it for longer than 20 years on average (which may surprise people!)
November 8, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Here are our key recommendations:
1. Tie the State Pension to life expectancy by setting the State Pension Age so that the average person receives it for 20 years.
Current retirees receive it for longer than 20 years on average (which may surprise people!)
1. Tie the State Pension to life expectancy by setting the State Pension Age so that the average person receives it for 20 years.
Current retirees receive it for longer than 20 years on average (which may surprise people!)
Headlines:
- tie the State Pension to life expectancy and set SPA so that the average person receives it for 20 years
- this means SPA increasing rapidly; one year per decade is justifiable (the maths says go faster)
- guarantee a minimum 5 year payout, for those with shorter life expectancy at SPA
- tie the State Pension to life expectancy and set SPA so that the average person receives it for 20 years
- this means SPA increasing rapidly; one year per decade is justifiable (the maths says go faster)
- guarantee a minimum 5 year payout, for those with shorter life expectancy at SPA
November 8, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Headlines:
- tie the State Pension to life expectancy and set SPA so that the average person receives it for 20 years
- this means SPA increasing rapidly; one year per decade is justifiable (the maths says go faster)
- guarantee a minimum 5 year payout, for those with shorter life expectancy at SPA
- tie the State Pension to life expectancy and set SPA so that the average person receives it for 20 years
- this means SPA increasing rapidly; one year per decade is justifiable (the maths says go faster)
- guarantee a minimum 5 year payout, for those with shorter life expectancy at SPA
Since the State Pension was first introduced, SPA has *fallen* by 4 years (with some ups and downs along the way).
I’m not sure why previous generations of actuaries were quiet about this. First ruling on an SPA increase (equalisation) was when I was 16 - though I can’t take ALL the credit. 😉
I’m not sure why previous generations of actuaries were quiet about this. First ruling on an SPA increase (equalisation) was when I was 16 - though I can’t take ALL the credit. 😉
November 8, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Since the State Pension was first introduced, SPA has *fallen* by 4 years (with some ups and downs along the way).
I’m not sure why previous generations of actuaries were quiet about this. First ruling on an SPA increase (equalisation) was when I was 16 - though I can’t take ALL the credit. 😉
I’m not sure why previous generations of actuaries were quiet about this. First ruling on an SPA increase (equalisation) was when I was 16 - though I can’t take ALL the credit. 😉
Over the very long term, a smaller population may be more sustainable. But such rapid demographic change may cause significant challenges in the decades ahead, as a smaller working population supports a large retired population. Society will have to significantly adapt to the change.
November 7, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Over the very long term, a smaller population may be more sustainable. But such rapid demographic change may cause significant challenges in the decades ahead, as a smaller working population supports a large retired population. Society will have to significantly adapt to the change.
In the UK the correlation between births and numbers entering primary school (age 4-5) is very strong.
November 6, 2025 at 5:52 PM
In the UK the correlation between births and numbers entering primary school (age 4-5) is very strong.
At least they have an extra decade to plan I suppose. Or is that naïve of me? ;-)
November 6, 2025 at 12:56 PM
At least they have an extra decade to plan I suppose. Or is that naïve of me? ;-)
It says a lot about the lack of numeracy in the country, and the priorities of the media/commentariat, that there was so much written about the tiny number of pupils spilling over from private to state, and so little about the inevitable large fall in pupil numbers from lower numbers of births.
November 6, 2025 at 12:53 PM
It says a lot about the lack of numeracy in the country, and the priorities of the media/commentariat, that there was so much written about the tiny number of pupils spilling over from private to state, and so little about the inevitable large fall in pupil numbers from lower numbers of births.
Japan shows us one possible future if trends continue unabated.
www.independent.co.uk/news/japan-a...
www.independent.co.uk/news/japan-a...
Ageing population in Japan leaves schools with empty classrooms
As the number of students falls across Japan, a recent ceremony saw only two final graduates before the school closed
www.independent.co.uk
November 6, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Japan shows us one possible future if trends continue unabated.
www.independent.co.uk/news/japan-a...
www.independent.co.uk/news/japan-a...